2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Grebacio]

2 hours ago, poweranimals said:

So I was looking at the 2022 predictions thread earlier and noticing how many of the movies predicted for the top box office didn't even release. Now I'm curious. Of all the big budget movies set to release in 2023, which one do you think is the most likely to be delayed? You know, there's always at least one.

Blue Beetle, Wonka, Ghostbusters

[DAJK]

Yea Ghostbusters and Blue Beetle I could see getting bumped. Or Wish, and The Marvels opening over Thanksgiving (would be an interesting change of pace for Disney, but it wouldn't shock me).

[YM!]

8 hours ago, DAJK said:

Yea Ghostbusters and Blue Beetle I could see getting bumped. Or Wish, and The Marvels opening over Thanksgiving (would be an interesting change of pace for Disney, but it wouldn't shock me).

I’m pretty sure Blue Beetle will go to that 9/22 WB has for DC movie unless it’s something weren’t seeing like Teen Titans Go Through The Multiverse or some bs.

 

I think Trolls 3 will move to start of November to fight against Dune 2.

[JWR]

Wish isn't moving. 

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

I’m pretty sure Blue Beetle will go to that 9/22 WB has for DC movie unless it’s something weren’t seeing like Teen Titans Go Through The Multiverse or some bs.

 

I think Trolls 3 will move to start of November to fight against Dune 2.

I could see that. The first weekend of November is a traditional Dreamworks Animation date.

[poweranimals]

It's actually kinda weird that (outside of Wish) Disney has basically abandoned the whole fourth quarter of next year.

Edited December 30, 2022 by poweranimals

[JustLurking]

14 hours ago, DAJK said:

Yea Ghostbusters and Blue Beetle I could see getting bumped. Or Wish, and The Marvels opening over Thanksgiving (would be an interesting change of pace for Disney, but it wouldn't shock me).

Wish moving makes no sense. The film was basically designed around celebrating their 100th anniversary, so it moving out would be absurd.

[MattW]

The nominal average of 2016-2019 was $11,425m and 2022 is going to come in at 7360, about 64.4% of the average.

 

 

2023's schedule looks pretty decent month by month, shouldn't have nearly as soft of a start as this year had. We'll see if Avatar can prop up january better than spiderman did last year, but from February on there seems to be very promising hits fairly evenly spread out through every month. I say maybe 70% of the 11.4b average which would put the year right at $8 billion.

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, poweranimals said:

It's actually kinda weird that (outside of Wish) Disney has basically abandoned the whole fourth quarter of next year.

They're being screwed by Lucasfilm dropping the ball with Star Wars and not being able to get any movies off the ground. Like, I really, really want to know what's going on over there.

[dxmatrixdt]

1 - The Little Mermaid - 425

2 - Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - 400

3 - Indiana Jones 5 - 375

4 - Super Mario Bros. - 350 (+90)

5 - The Marvels - 300 (+20)

6 - Ant-Man 3 - 290 (+20)

7 - Aquaman 2 - 280 (+50)

8 - Mission: Impossible 7 - 270 (+20)

9 - Spider-Verse 2 - 260 (+20)

10 - The Flash - 230 (+40)

11 - Barbie - 220

12 - Fast X - 200

13 - Wonka - 180 (+20)

14 - Oppenheimer - 170 (+20)

15 - Shazam 2 - 170 (+10)

16 - John Wick 4 - 160 (+10)

17 - Transformers - 160 (-10)

18 - Elemental - 150

19 - Ghostbusters - 150

20 - Wish - 150

21 - Blue Beetle - 150

22 - Dune 2 - 150 (+20)

23 - The Meg 2 - 150 (+20)

24 - The Hunger Games - 140

25 - Migration - 130

26 - Trolls 3 - 130

27 - Haunted Mansion - 110

28 - Kraven the Hunter - 110

29 - Creed 3 - 110

30 - Scream 6 - 100

31 - The Nun 2 - 100 (-10)

32 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - 90

33 - The Equalizer 3 - 80

Edited January 12, 2023 by dxmatrixdt

[Flip]

On 12/30/2022 at 1:14 AM, Grebacio said:

Blue Beetle, Wonka, Ghostbusters

by far Ghostbusters both because it hasn't even started production and because it doesn't want to go up against Aquaman, which will be drawing the same audience as it

[Flip]

On 12/30/2022 at 6:30 PM, Verrows said:

They're being screwed by Lucasfilm dropping the ball with Star Wars and not being able to get any movies off the ground. Like, I really, really want to know what's going on over there.

I do think that the period is just covered up by Aquaman and Dune 2, and even the Hunger Games prequel, to the point that any Disney movie will have decent competition

[Flip]

4 hours ago, dxmatrixdt said:

1 - The Little Mermaid - 425

2 - Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - 400

3 - Indiana Jones 5 - 375

4 - Super Mario Bros. - 300 (+40)

5 - The Marvels - 280

6 - Ant-Man 3 - 270

7 - Spider-Verse 2 - 260 (+20)

8 - Mission: Impossible 7 - 250

9 - Aquaman 2 - 240 (+10)

10 - Barbie - 220

11 - Fast X - 200

12 - The Flash - 190

13 - Oppenheimer - 170 (+20)

14 - Shazam 2 - 170 (+10)

15 - John Wick 4 - 160 (+10)

16 - Transformers - 160 (-10)

17 - Wonka - 160

18 - Elemental - 150

19 - Ghostbusters - 150

20 - Wish - 150

21 - Blue Beetle - 150

22 - Dune 2 - 150 (+20)

23 - The Meg 2 - 150 (+20)

24 - The Hunger Games - 140

25 - Creed 3 - 130

26 - Migration - 130

27 - Trolls 3 - 130

28 - Kraven the Hunter - 110

29 - Haunted Mansion - 110

30 - The Nun 2 - 110

31 - Scream 6 - 100

32 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - 90

33 - The Equalizer 3 - 80

1. GOTG 3 - (460)

2. Aquaman 2 - (400)

3. Indiana Jones 5 (380) 

4. Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning (380)

5. Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse (318)

6. Ant-Man and the Wasp - Quantumania (271)

7. The Little Mermaid (269)

8. Super Mario Bros (268)

9. The Marvels (267)

10. Flash (260)

11. Dune 2 (229)

12. John Wick 4 (213)

13. Meg 2 (192)

14. Barbie (189)

15. Ghostbusters 2 (185)

16. Oppenheimer (175)

17. Fast X (168)

18. Shazam 2 (165)

19. Creed III (163)

20. Wonka (158)

21. Legally Blonde 3 (147)

22. Wish (147)

23. Blue Beetle (145)

24. Elemental (141)

25. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (140)

26. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (133)

27. Hunger Games: Ballad of the Songbirds (130)

28. Haunted Mansion (125)

29. The Nun 2 (118)

30. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (110)

 

 

 

 

[YM!]

On 11/5/2022 at 11:13 AM, YM! said:

1. Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $215m/$500m
3. The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$450m
4. Aquaman 2 - $90m/$380m
5. The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$360m
6. The Marvels - $135m/$325m
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $105m/$120m/$295m
8. Blue Beetle - $80m/$245m
9. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m
10. Dune Part 2 - $80m/$240m

Potential 200m+ hitters:

Im thinking Fantastic Beasts numbers for Hunger Games and 200-225m for Wonka. Out of all the animation, Illumination has become the biggest brand at the box office so Migration seems likely for 200m. Trolls 3 could do 200m as could Wish (Wish is Disney’s only tentpole this holiday and 100th year thing so I think they’ll push it). Across the SpiderVerse is in a situation where it will get fucked over by all sides because the nostalgic toy commercials are too strong but we will see if the love of the first is strong enough. Elemental could do well but whenever Disney does a six week sandwich of film release, the one in the middle gets fucked. Flash depends on how much the Ezra stuff will hurt, it could do sub 200m or 300m+ and neither would surprise me. Barbie reminds me of Detective Pikachu and WB is incompetent at selling family films (cause in point being Pikachu and all of the WAG movies). Oppenheimer seems more of a 100m hitter and with The Marvels so close I imagine a Matrix 4 situation where Oppenheimer just gets IMAX and The Marvels takes all other PLFs and then IMAX after the week is over.

 

1. Indiana Jones 5 - $175m/$550m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 - $175m/$465m
3. The Little Mermaid - $125m/$160m/$450m
4. Aquaman 2 - $90m/$365m
5. The Super Mario Bros Movie - $105m/$350m
6. The Flash - $95m/$260m
7. The Marvels - $100m/$255m
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $90m/$115m/$255m
9. Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $85m/$250m
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m
11. Dune Part 2 - $75m/$230m
12. Wonka - $45m/$225m
13. Across the Spider-Verse - $70m/$210m
14. Blue Beetle - $65m/$200m
15. Trolls: Band Together - $55m/$190m
16. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $55m/$185m
17. Barbie - $40m/$180m
18. Wish - $35m/$55m/$165m
19. Fast X - $65m/$150m
20. Migration - $25m/$150m
21. Kraven - $50m/$140m
22. Ghostbusters - $25m/$140m
23. Oppenheimer - $35m/$135m
24. Shazam: Fury of The Gods - $50m/$130m
25. Elemental - $35m/$130m
26. Creed 3 - $45m/$120m
27. M3GAN - $40m/$100m
28. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $25m/$100m

Edited January 1, 2023 by YM!

[stripe]

Monthly gross predictions for January 2023. Numbers are the total gross for just this month. Trying to be conservative 

 

Openers (around 130M)

M3gan: 55M - potential breakout!

Plane: 20M

A man called Otto: 20M

House Party: 15M

Devil conspiracy: 5M

Missing: 5M

New gods: 5M

Fear: 5M

 

Holdovers 

Avatar 2: 200M

Puss in boots: 75M

Rest: 75M

 

Around 500M

Last years January grossed 390M

[Juby]

14 hours ago, YM! said:

 

1. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - $105m/$245m

No f**king way. M:I films always has geat legs and $245m with today's ATP would be the worst admission in the history of this franchise.

[kayumanggi]

I am amazed by the confidence some have for INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY. 🤔

[clockwork]

47 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

I am amazed by the confidence some have for INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY. 🤔

I'm cautiously optimistic. The title is so-so but I thought the trailer was pretty solid, so I could see it preforming like a lesser version of Top Gun Maverick if it hits right. The main concern I have is if the younger crowd will willing to go out to see an Indiana Jones movie, is there enough a hook to get them interested?

 

Then again I thought the same about Maverick and that movie was a hit for pretty much everybody so who knows.

Edited January 2, 2023 by clockwork

[Mr Roark]

After Maverick’s success I’m pretty confident M:I-7 is gonna smash it.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Mr Roark

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, clockwork said:

I'm cautiously optimistic. The title is so-so but I thought the trailer was pretty solid, so I could see it preforming like a lesser version of Top Gun Maverick if it hits right. The main concern I have is if the younger crowd will willing to go out to see an Indiana Jones movie, is there enough a hook to get them interested?

 

Then again I thought the same about Maverick and that movie was a hit for pretty much everybody so who knows.

 

I agree with your concern plus the fact that the last movie kinda left a bad taste in people's mouths. Summer 2023 is also packed. I want to see another trailer, but I am thinking $250 - $300 M for now.