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Eric Furiosa

2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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On 1/16/2023 at 3:15 PM, thajdikt said:

Barbie is way overpredicted. Legit seen people think it will do 600M+. Also think Ant-Man 3 is overpredicted by some but that´s an MCU movie so it at least have some merit. Barbie hype is the definition of echo chamber. Will do 350M at most.

 

That's fucking huge. Maybe don't consider the wildest predictions out there. 

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On 1/2/2023 at 1:18 AM, stripe said:

Monthly gross predictions for January 2023. Numbers are the total gross for just this month. Trying to be conservative 

 

Openers (around 130M)

M3gan: 55M - potential breakout!

Plane: 20M

A man called Otto: 20M

House Party: 15M

Devil conspiracy: 5M

Missing: 5M

New gods: 5M

Fear: 5M

 

Holdovers 

Avatar 2: 200M

Puss in boots: 75M

Rest: 75M

 

Around 500M

Last years January grossed 390M

 

Final January 2023 cumulative gross will be around 580M.

 

So happy to see that it will outgross my predictions! M3gan, Plane, A man called Otto & Missing overperformed. Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots also held better than expected. Solid start for 2023.
 

Let's guess about February (trying to be conservative)

Openers (around 400M)

The Chosen: 15M

Knock at the cabin: 50M
80 for Brady: 40M
Magic Mike Last Dance: 35M

Titanic: 25M

Marlowe: 5M

Ant Man Quantumania: 200M
Cocaine bear: 15M

Jesus Revolution: 10M
 

Holdovers (around 150M)
Avatar2: 50M

Puss in Boots: 40M

A man called Otto: 15M
M3gan: 10M
Rest: 30M

 

Around 550M for February 2023. Great news if it crosses 600M. Last year the gross was 365M.

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On 1/26/2023 at 3:28 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jan 20 - 22 / $74,120,785

2022 / Jan 21 - 23 / $46,118,823

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jan 27 - 29 / $72,426,759

2022 / Jan 28 - 30 / $35,052,113

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On 6/18/2022 at 2:06 PM, poweranimals said:

I'm probably going to regret doing this so early but I'm bored so...

 

1. Guardians of the Galaxy vol 3

2. Indiana Jones 5

3. Ant Man 3: Quantimania

4. Aquaman 2

5. Mission Impossib

6. The Marvels

7. Flash

8. Fast 10

9. Dune, Part 2

10. Wonka

My updated predictions:

 

1. Super Mario

2. Guardians of the Galaxy

3. Indiana Jones

4. Mission Impossible

5. Ant-Man 3

6. Fast 10

7. Aquaman 2

8. The Marvels

9. Little Mermaid

10. The Flash

 

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On 1/1/2023 at 3:47 AM, dxmatrixdt said:

1 - The Little Mermaid - 425

2 - Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - 400

3 - Indiana Jones 5 - 375

4 - Super Mario Bros. - 350 (+90)

5 - The Marvels - 300 (+20)

6 - Ant-Man 3 - 290 (+20)

7 - Aquaman 2 - 280 (+50)

8 - Mission: Impossible 7 - 270 (+20)

9 - Spider-Verse 2 - 260 (+20)

10 - The Flash - 230 (+40)

11 - Barbie - 220

12 - Fast X - 200

13 - Wonka - 180 (+20)

14 - Oppenheimer - 170 (+20)

15 - Shazam 2 - 170 (+10)

16 - John Wick 4 - 160 (+10)

17 - Transformers - 160 (-10)

18 - Elemental - 150

19 - Ghostbusters - 150

20 - Wish - 150

21 - Blue Beetle - 150

22 - Dune 2 - 150 (+20)

23 - The Meg 2 - 150 (+20)

24 - The Hunger Games - 140

25 - Migration - 130

26 - Trolls 3 - 130

27 - Haunted Mansion - 110

28 - Kraven the Hunter - 110

29 - Creed 3 - 110

30 - Scream 6 - 100

31 - The Nun 2 - 100 (-10)

32 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - 90

33 - The Equalizer 3 - 80

 

 

i do not want to update my predictions anymore since AM3 tickets went on sale and BOpro did their long range forecasts, but i should have gone lower on Shazam.  glad i went higher with The Flash and Aquaman 2, but maybe i should have gone even higher on Aquaman?  

the bottom of this list is going to have to do some heavy lifting to keep the placements by staying ahead of M3GAN.  

Spoiler

 

maybe i should have included The Exorcist since it is probably the most anticipated horror movie of 2023.  i was thinking maybe 80m with it, but i wasn't sure so i just left it off the list.  does anyone think The Exorcist can beat M3GAN and possibly 100M to be the top horror of 2023?  i was also thinking 80M for M3GAN but i didn't include it and glad i didn't since i would have been wrong!  also, i might have put Knock at the Cabin at 70M.  anything else have a shot at making it on this list this year?

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5 minutes ago, dxmatrixdt said:

 

 

i do not want to update my predictions anymore since AM3 tickets went on sale and BOpro did their long range forecasts, but i should have gone lower on Shazam.  glad i went higher with The Flash and Aquaman 2, but maybe i should have gone even higher on Aquaman?  

the bottom of this list is going to have to do some heavy lifting to keep the placements by staying ahead of M3GAN.  

  Reveal hidden contents

maybe i should have included The Exorcist since it is probably the most anticipated horror movie of 2023.  i was thinking maybe 80m with it, but i wasn't sure so i just left it off the list.  does anyone think The Exorcist can beat M3GAN and possibly 100M to be the top horror of 2023?  i was also thinking 80M for M3GAN but i didn't include it and glad i didn't since i would have been wrong!  also, i might have put Knock at the Cabin at 70M.  anything else have a shot at making it on this list this year?

Wish doing 150M seems a bit low to me.

But let's see.

 

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On 1/31/2023 at 1:57 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Jan 27 - 29 / $72,426,759

2022 / Jan 28 - 30 / $35,052,113

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 03 - 05 / $81,317,603

2022 / Feb 04 - 06 / $59,779,023

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On 2/9/2023 at 12:03 AM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 03 - 05 / $81,317,603

2022 / Feb 04 - 06 / $59,779,023

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 10 - 12 / $52,678,222

2022 / Feb 11 - 13 / $53,837,195

 

This is the first time 2022 has won against 2023.

 

WINS

2023: 5 weekends

2022: 1 weekend

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7 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 10 - 12 / $52,678,222

2022 / Feb 11 - 13 / $53,837,195

 

This is the first time 2022 has won against 2023.

 

WINS

2023: 5 weekends

2022: 1 weekend


2022 will win other weekends. Next one will be first weekend of March. Batman vs Creed and Operation Fortune... Not a chance for 2023

 

Best news is that every 2023 weekend (except the first one) had a top 10 with movies grossing at least 1M.

2022 had just 11 weekends with every top10 movie grossing at least 1M in the first six months.

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2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $91.9 M | M3GAN

02 | $31.4 M | PLANE

03 | $28.0 M | 80 FOR BRADY

04 | $27.8 M | MISSING

05 | $26.0 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

 

06 | $15.9 M | PATHAAN

07 | $11.9 M | MAGIC MIKE'S LAST DANCE

08 | $09.7 M | TITANIC

09 | $09.0 M | HOUSE PARTY

10 | $08.1 M | BTS: YET TO COME IN CINEMAS

 

11 | $05.5 M | THE CHOSEN SEASON III FINALE

12 | $04.9 M | INFINITY POOL
13 | $04.6 M | THE WANDERING EARTH II

14 | $03.6 M | LEFT BEHIND: RISE OF THE ANTICHRIST

15 | $02.8 M | THE AMAZING MAURICE

 

---

 

0 - DISNEY

1 - LIONSGATE

2 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

2 - UNIVERSAL

2 - WARNER BROS.

7 - OTHERS

 

Edited by kayumanggi
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On 2/17/2023 at 12:52 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 10 - 12 / $52,678,222

2022 / Feb 11 - 13 / $53,837,195

 

This is the first time 2022 has won against 2023.

 

WINS

2023: 5 weekends

2022: 1 weekend

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Feb 17 - 20 / $166,875,843

2022 / Feb 18 - 21 / $111,455,709

 

2023 / Feb 17 - 19 / $144,939,605

2022 / Feb 18 - 20 / $94,583,877

 

WINS

2023: 6 weekends

2022: 1 weekend

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