2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Asyulus]

Time to update prediction and add top 11-20 before new year 2023 strikes.

 

1. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One | $380M DOM | $1.05B WW

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | $415M DOM | $910M WW

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $255M DOM | $865M WW

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | $300M DOM | $830M WW

5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | $340M DOM | $790M WW

6. The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $270M DOM | $740M WW

7. Fast X | $175M DOM | $620M WW

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $285M DOM | $605M WW

9. The Marvels | $200M DOM | $585M WW

10. The Flash | $190M DOM | $535M WW

11. The Little Mermaid | $180M DOM | $530M WW

12. Elemental | $185M DOM | $520M WW

13. Dune: Part Two | $140M DOM | $450M WW

14. John Wick: Chapter 4 | $190M DOM | $410M WW

15. Blue Beetle | $170M DOM | $385M WW

16. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | $165M DOM | $360M WW

17. Barbie | $120M DOM | $335M WW

18. Meg 2: The Trench | $130M DOM | $330M WW

19. Shazam! Fury of the Gods | $120M DOM | $285M WW

20. Wish | $140M DOM | $270M WW

[Juby]

One more prediction for 2023 - there are only two movies that have owned the opening weekend record for over 4 years: Sam Raimi's Spider-Man (4 years, 2 months and 4 days - broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest in July 2006) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park (4 years, 5 months and 24 days - broken by the 1st Harry Potter film in November 2001). Avengers: Endgame will become the longest-reigning opening weekend champion of all time after October 22, 2023. There's no chance anything will surpass its $357.1m, not in a few years (maybe in this decade).

 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Juby said:

One more prediction for 2023 - there are only two movies that have owned the opening weekend record for over 4 years: Sam Raimi's Spider-Man (4 years, 2 months and 4 days - broken by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest in July 2006) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park (4 years, 5 months and 24 days - broken by the 1st Harry Potter film in November 2001). Avengers: Endgame will become the longest-reigning opening weekend champion of all time after October 22, 2023. There's no chance anything will surpass its $357.1m, not in a few years (maybe in this decade).

 

The first film that has any chance (i.e literally any) to beat Endgames opening is Kang Dynasty. Assuming it holds its release date that’s just over 6 years. I don’t thing KD will have enough power to do it though (I can see anywhere from 240-300), so the next and best shot is Secret Wars which will be 7 years after Endgame. If Secret Wars can’t do it, there’s nothing on the current horizon that will be able to do it very well may hold on for more than a decade.

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

The first film that has any chance (i.e literally any) to beat Endgames opening is Kang Dynasty. Assuming it holds its release date that’s just over 6 years. I don’t thing KD will have enough power to do it though (I can see anywhere from 240-300), so the next and best shot is Secret Wars which will be 7 years after Endgame. If Secret Wars can’t do it, there’s nothing on the current horizon that will be able to do it very well may hold on for more than a decade.

Tbh I’m thinking an OW more along the lines of 190m-230m for Kang.

[XXR vs XXR]

17 minutes ago, YM! said:

Tbh I’m thinking an OW more along the lines of 190m-230m for Kang.

I can’t see a 2025 Avengers movie opening just 5% above a 2022 Black Panther movie. 

[Juby]

After the Phase Four films and with the current Avengers members (No Iron Man, not the original Captain America, no Black Widow) I don't see next Avengers films OW over Infinity War's $257.7m. MCU has to do something great in the next two years to appeal audience as they did in 2017-2019.

[Eric the Ape]

https://deadline.com/2022/12/box-office-2023-prediction-1235205995/

 

Quote

The aftermath of Covid’s 2020-21 closure of cinemas will continue to be felt in 2023 as the domestic box office claws its way back to what many sources believe is an $8 billion-$9 billion result.

 

On the high end, it’s a 22% jump from what Comscore is expecting 2022 to final at, that being $7.4B. This year’s domestic box office also reps a 72% surge over 2021’s $4.3 billion.

 

[WittyUsername]

I guess we better hope that Oppenheimer does well, otherwise there may be no hope for non-IP adult tentpoles on the big screen. 

[Cmasterclay]

Domestic Only

 

1. Super Mario Brothers - $430 million

2. GOTG 3 - $420 million

3. The Little Mermaid - $365 million

4. Indiana Jones - $320 million

5. Mission Impossible - $275 million

6. Spider-Verse - $270 million

7 - Aquaman - $250 million

8. Barbie - $230 million

9. Flash - $230 million

10. Marvels - $225 million

11. Ant-Man - $215 million

12. John Wick - $200 million

13. Fast X - $180 million

14. Wonka - $180 million

15. Dune II - $160 million

 

Other biggies - $145 million for both Creed and Oppenheimer, $140 for Haunted Mansion, Transformers does about $120, some horror breakout does $125, Elemental and Hunger Games flop. 

 

Deep af but weak at the top year incoming.

[JWR]

I can't see Super Mario Bros crossing $400M+ DOM. 

[thajdikt]

So trying this. My predictions aren´t really that thought out, so if you see something that seems ridiciolus don´t be shy. Especially on the DOM/Overseas split. 

 

1. MI7 $1.04B ($400 dom)

2. Mario $934M ($350 dom)

3. Aquaman $920M ($400 dom)

4. GotG $810M ($382 dom)

5. Autobots $789M ($290M dom)

6. Flash $750M ($240 dom)

7. Marvels $740M ($340 dom)

8. Fast X $720 ($189 dom)

9. Indy $650M ($205 (dom)

10. Ant-Man $557M ($301 dom)

11. Dune part 2 $550M ($150 (Dom)

12. Oppenheimer $490M ($100 dom)

13. Shazam $450M ($175 dom)

14. Blue Beetle $390M ($140 dom)

15. John Wick 4 $350M ($120M dom)

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, thajdikt said:

So trying this. My predictions aren´t really that thought out, so if you see something that seems ridiciolus don´t be shy. Especially on the DOM/Overseas split. 

 

1. MI7 $1.04B ($400 dom)

2. Mario $934M ($350 dom)

3. Aquaman $920M ($400 dom)

4. GotG $810M ($382 dom)

5. Autobots $789M ($290M dom)

6. Flash $750M ($240 dom)

7. Marvels $740M ($340 dom)

8. Fast X $720 ($189 dom)

9. Indy $650M ($205 (dom)

10. Ant-Man $557M ($301 dom)

11. Dune part 2 $550M ($150 (Dom)

12. Oppenheimer $490M ($100 dom)

13. Shazam $450M ($175 dom)

14. Blue Beetle $390M ($140 dom)

15. John Wick 4 $350M ($120M dom)

 

Are these all with China or without? 

[thajdikt]

Just now, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Are these all with China or without? 

Without China

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Without China

 

These are all generally fine. Off the top of my head I'd probably knock 200M off the Flash. Rise of the Beast seems pretty high also, given the last one made $130M DOM and $465M WW. I think MI7 is being over-predicted by a lot of people but I understand why. Indy seems pretty low DOM. That would be over 100M less than the last one brought in 15 years ago. 

 

But yea, nothing you predicted is impossible.

 

 

[DAJK]

Based on OS results so far, M3GAN could turn out into a genuine January horror hit.

[kayumanggi]

What are your locks for $100 M? 2022 currently has 18. The 19th and maybe the final one is PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH.

 

2019 had 29 while 2018 had 35.

 

FEB

■ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

 

MAR

■ Shazam! Fury of the Gods

■ John Wick IV

 

APR

■ The Super Mario Bros. Movie

 

MAY

■ Guardians of the Galaxy III

■ Fast X

■ The Little Mermaid

 

JUN

■ Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

■ Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

■ The Flash

■ Elemental

■ Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

JUL

■ Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning I

■ Barbie

■ Oppenheimer

■ The Marvels

 

AUG

■ Blue Beetle

 

NOV

■ Dune II

■ The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

 

DEC

■ Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

 

POSSIBILITIES

 

M3gan

Creed

65

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Insidious V

The Meg: The Trench

The Equalizer III

The Nun II

Kraven the Hunter

Trolls III

Wish

Wonka

Untitled Ghostbuster Sequel

Migration

 

I'm actually not sure about ELEMENTAL. That's more of a hope than a prediction.

[thajdikt]

50 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

These are all generally fine. Off the top of my head I'd probably knock 200M off the Flash. Rise of the Beast seems pretty high also, given the last one made $130M DOM and $465M WW. I think MI7 is being over-predicted by a lot of people but I understand why. Indy seems pretty low DOM. That would be over 100M less than the last one brought in 15 years ago. 

 

But yea, nothing you predicted is impossible.

 

 

Yeah all of those you mentioned is those I was most torn apart. IDK why but have a feeling that Transformers will do really well. Will be interesting to see! Think 2023 will be a fun year for us in here!

[poweranimals]

So I was looking at the 2022 predictions thread earlier and noticing how many of the movies predicted for the top box office didn't even release. Now I'm curious. Of all the big budget movies set to release in 2023, which one do you think is the most likely to be delayed? You know, there's always at least one.

Edited December 30, 2022 by poweranimals

[Verrows]

7 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

So I was looking at the 2022 predictions thread earlier and noticing how many of the movies predicted for the top box office didn't even release. Now I'm curious. Of all the big budget movies set to release in 2023, which one do you think is the most likely to be delayed? You know, there's always at least one.

I don't think any. It seems like studios are finally on schedule, so to speak.

[kayumanggi]

If there will be some moving, it will still mostly be within the year.