2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[filmlover]

Speaking of which, I just looked at the November schedule and this is what it is now:

 

11/3: Dune 2

11/10: The Marvels, Journey to Bethlehem

11/17: Hunger Games, Trolls, Thanksgiving, Next Goal Wins

Thanksgiving Weekend: Wish, Napoleon, The Holdovers (wide expansion, limited on 11/10)

 

So packed. Trolls should move to the first weekend against Dune for more space between it and Wish (as well as Universal's other animated holiday offering, Migration around Christmas).

[kayumanggi]

I guess it's now just the battle for second place. 

[stripe]

April 2023 gross (585M) already over April 2022 total gross (571M)

Month to date, April 2023 is the highest grosser ever right now. Eyeing around 900M

 

Yearly, 2023 right now is -17% behind prepandemic 2019 and 37% ahead of 2022

Encouraging recovery

 

[stripe]

On 4/13/2023 at 8:15 PM, filmlover said:

Speaking of which, I just looked at the November schedule and this is what it is now:

 

11/3: Dune 2

11/10: The Marvels, Journey to Bethlehem

11/17: Hunger Games, Trolls, Thanksgiving, Next Goal Wins

Thanksgiving Weekend: Wish, Napoleon, The Holdovers (wide expansion, limited on 11/10)

 

So packed. Trolls should move to the first weekend against Dune for more space between it and Wish (as well as Universal's other animated holiday offering, Migration around Christmas).

 

November schedule looks solid, but December really needs more tentpoles. It just has a schedule with Wonka, Aquaman2, Migration, and The Color Purple. 

[Jonwo]

I know people on here want the demise of Disney by having Wish be a flop but I think Trolls 3 is vulnerable for Universal, I'd go for either the early November slot or late October for Trolls 3.

 

December is fine, I would probably say WB might platform release Juror Number 2 before a wider release in January but four WB titles in the same month is a lot.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

November schedule looks solid, but December really needs more tentpoles. It just has a schedule with Wonka, Aquaman2, Migration, and The Color Purple. 

I imagine the rest of December will be mostly filled out by the prestige-y titles that have yet to be dated like The Bikeriders.

[stripe]

 

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I imagine the rest of December will be mostly filled out by the prestige-y titles that have yet to be dated like The Bikeriders.

 

For me, the main problem is that both Wonka and Aquaman2 look a bit underwhelming BO wise. Migration should do well, but the rest have weak points. Still early, though

[NCsoft]

4 hours ago, stripe said:

 

November schedule looks solid, but December really needs more tentpoles. It just has a schedule with Wonka, Aquaman2, Migration, and The Color Purple. 

 

This light slate probably gives Migration a chance to succeed.

It's "The studio that brought you Super Mario Bros movie" afterall. 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by NCsoft

[Jonwo]

I'm quite bullish about Wonka because of the creative team. I'm unsure on Migration, Illumination is on a roll with Mario but the teaser for Migration was a bit underwhelming.

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I'm quite bullish about Wonka because of the creative team. I'm unsure on Migration, Illumination is on a roll with Mario but the teaser for Migration was a bit underwhelming.

 

Let's wait for the full trailer then.

[kayumanggi]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

 

For me, the main problem is that both Wonka and Aquaman2 look a bit underwhelming BO wise. Migration should do well, but the rest have weak points. Still early, though

 

I just think people during the holidays are more forgiving when it comes to the movies they watch. 😅 It's the time of the year when a lot have money to spare and they'll go to the movies no matter what.

[stripe]

 

15 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I just think people during the holidays are more forgiving when it comes to the movies they watch. 😅 It's the time of the year when a lot have money to spare and they'll go to the movies no matter what.

 

Last couple of years demonstrated that Christmas is an incredible place for tentpoles. Almost every year there was 1-2 films with a lot of buzz.  That's why I am surprised the studios didn't place something more meaty. Imagine what could happen if Dune 2 or Indiana Jones 5 land there.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

 

Last couple of years demonstrated that Christmas is an incredible place for tentpoles. Almost every year there was 1-2 films with a lot of buzz.  That's why I am surprised the studios didn't place something more meaty. Imagine what could happen if Dune 2 or Indiana Jones 5 land there.

The first Aquaman did make insane amount of bank around Christmas in '18 so that's probably being viewed as the default tentpole.

[kayumanggi]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

 

Last couple of years demonstrated that Christmas is an incredible place for tentpoles. Almost every year there was 1-2 films with a lot of buzz.  That's why I am surprised the studios didn't place something more meaty. Imagine what could happen if Dune 2 or Indiana Jones 5 land there.

 

I think one reason is, historically, Warner Bros. and Disney kinda monopolized December with their big releases. Although recently, Sony's presence has been felt with NO WAY HOME and their JUMANJI movies. Universal is also trying to have a share of the month with their animated films.

 

THE LOST KINGDOM is so difficult to predict. I think another 'big' movie can share December with it.

[dxmatrixdt]

On 3/27/2023 at 5:28 AM, dxmatrixdt said:

2013 had 35 100M movies, with a bunch of others that should have been there.  With Shazam out, Dungeons and Dragons, Equalizer 3, Ninja Turtles and The Exorcist will have to replace it to keep the chances of the record alive.

now D&D is out, so it will all be up to The Expendables 4.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Feeling like No Hard Feelings is gonna surprise a lot of people. That film looks like an old-fashioned crowdpleaser that could have some great legs. Gonna be bullish and predict that has a $35-40M opening and a final worldwide gross of $200M. It'll be a bright spot in a disappointing June, Spider-Verse and Indiana Jones pending (though the latter's gonna have most of its performance in July).

[stripe]

1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Feeling like No Hard Feelings is gonna surprise a lot of people. That film looks like an old-fashioned crowdpleaser that could have some great legs. Gonna be bullish and predict that has a $35-40M opening and a final worldwide gross of $200M. It'll be a bright spot in a disappointing June, Spider-Verse and Indiana Jones pending (though the latter's gonna have most of its performance in July).

 

Really? I think that June has a schedule full of potential.

Elemental could be Pixar's comeback.

WB is beting strong with The Flash. Early word suggest it's a strong crowdpleaser.

PostBay Transformers had an ok-ish start with Bumblebee. It's a wild card.

Boogeyman looks like a promising horror counterprograming.

Strays & The Blackening provide comedy for adults, and that genre already gave big surprises BO wise.

I agree No Hard Feelings has also a huge breakout potential. 

 

And all this with Across the Spiderverse and Indi5.

 

I can see 7 June films grossing more than 100M, with 4 of them easily crossing 200M.

[vafrow]

Thinking about the calendar this year, I made the realization that likely the only superhero sequel this year to make more than its predecessor is Across the Spiderverse.

 

Antman and Shazam have failed. Guardians is looking looking dicey. Aquaman and Marvels are two films that have really ambitious targets to be able to do so.

 

Even looking ahead, Joker is hard pressed to do so based on how well the first did. It's hard to call Captain America New World Order a sequel, but if you do, it's unlikely to beat Civil War.

 

Deadpool 3 is probably the next film that has a shot at it.

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

36 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Really? I think that June has a schedule full of potential.

Elemental could be Pixar's comeback.

WB is beting strong with The Flash. Early word suggest it's a strong crowdpleaser.

PostBay Transformers had an ok-ish start with Bumblebee. It's a wild card.

Boogeyman looks like a promising horror counterprograming.

Strays & The Blackening provide comedy for adults, and that genre already gave big surprises BO wise.

I agree No Hard Feelings has also a huge breakout potential. 

 

And all this with Across the Spiderverse and Indi5.

 

I can see 7 June films grossing more than 100M, with 4 of them easily crossing 200M.

 

I understand where you're coming from but I can't agree.

 

Elemental has had some very anemic trailers that don't really sell the idea or make it seem like a theatrical event.

Flash is heavily connected to a cinematic universe that the audiences has basically given up on, stars an unpopular incarnation of a character (whose last major appearance was Justice League) and its only real selling point appeals mostly to older movie goers. 

Transformers might have enough time separate from the Bay films but idk if they have gotten the trust of audiences back, and the trailer didn't give the vibe of it being a true event film, which was a similar issue that Bumblebee ran into.

Strays & Blackening could be small hits (both trailers have played well with audiences I've been at), but with how tough it's been for comedies lately I feel like most people will wait for No Hard Feelings with the bigger star, like how last year more people went to Ticket To Paradise instead of Bros (horror comedies also just took a harsh hit with Renfield bombing which could be a bad sign for Blackening).

Boogeyman I admittedly forgot about and I actually agree, that can be a good sleeper hit.

 

I hope I'm wrong and we see a similar scenario to what we just had in March where most of these do well, so maybe it's the pessimist in me. But I'm just not feeling it.

[Mojoguy]

On 6/14/2022 at 12:29 PM, YM! said:

I would be surprised if Mario isn’t the biggest movie this year.

 

On 6/14/2022 at 12:30 PM, XXR Metro Boomin said:

I would be absolutely stunned if it is the biggest. I don’t think it’ll even be top 10.

 

On 6/14/2022 at 2:02 PM, XXR Metro Boomin said:

Ahhh you’re talking about animation only. I thought you had lost your mind.

2nd and 3rd posts aged poorly

 

No family animation since Puss and zero competation in April will help Mario win DOM and WW in 2023.