BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

I swear, I will never say something is very anticipated here in Germany. Internet buzz means nothing.

Since the numbers the nice member of insidekino.de often posts on Thursday vanished mysteriously yesterday, I don't know how close his estimates were to the actuals yesterday. But he said that PotC5 was only slightly under the admission numbers of Thursday today. Which also means that he did not overestimate it yesterday.

These are the Friday estimates - hopefully it holds:
PotC5:  156.5k
A: C: 33k
King Arthur: 15.5k
Get Out: 7.5k
GotG2: 20k
Fast 8: 6k

Other reports say the same (only slightly under yesterday). The problem could be last-minute-stornos due to the weather.

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, el sid said:

I swear, I will never say something is very anticipated here in Germany. Internet buzz means nothing.

Since the numbers the nice member of insidekino.de often posts on Thursday vanished mysteriously yesterday, I don't know how close his estimates were to the actuals yesterday. But he said that PotC5 was only slightly under the admission numbers of Thursday today. Which also means that he did not overestimate it yesterday.

These are the Friday estimates - hopefully it holds:
PotC5:  156.5k
A: C: 33k
King Arthur: 15.5k
Get Out: 7.5k
GotG2: 20k
Fast 8: 6k

Other reports say the same (only slightly under yesterday). The problem could be last-minute-stornos due to the weather.

 

so is this a good or bad opening?

[el sid]

13 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

so is this a good or bad opening?

Could be better. I hoped for more. But as I said with a rainy weekend 1M admissions would have been possible - very theoretically spoken. For the total everything depends on WOM (which isn't bad here too) and weather. The fine Thursday numbers show there's still interest.

Edited May 26, 2017 by el sid

[Aristis]

The 2nd Trend is like the first - nearly everything is stable (Alien up to 85k). At least it did not go down

[Olive]

1.193.025 - POTC1
1.924.778 - POTC 2 
1.860.775 - POTC 3
1.330.679 - POTC 4

  675,000 - POTC 5  est

[keysersoze123]

Weather is impacting it big time else it would have done 900k-1m for the weekend

[miketheavenger]

3rd trend has everything down a bit. PotC5 only at 625k.

[keysersoze123]

will it stay flat or barely drop next weekend since this is weather affected weekend?

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

will it stay flat or barely drop next weekend since this is weather affected weekend?

The problem is that Baywatch will get the biggest screens and best showtimes

[John Marston]

34 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

The problem is that Baywatch will get the biggest screens and best showtimes

 

 

Baywatch? The competition could be worse. LOL

[el sid]

What a terrible number for PotC5 :(. And the rest is also disappointing. I really hope it was mostly the weather. That the other newcomer (a family film) is also heavily underperforming and that most films have lousy holds despite a bridge day and a national holiday speaks for the weather theory ;).
Unfortunately it's predicted to continue to be pretty sunny but not so great and warm like this weekend. And maybe it changes like it did last week.

Tomorrow many theaters will announce their program for the week and than we know more. I'm not sure which movie will get the biggest screens. PotC is a very big name and the moderate weekend numbers of Baywatch in the USA will make theaters hesitate even more. I think they'll wait how the previews do on Wednesday (Baywatch gets a middle big theater in mathäser e.g. and it looks not bad from reservations but also not like people were hyped) and than they will decide.
But Baywatch could also be a movie with good legs, as strange as this sounds. Remember Dirty Grandpa: Not a great start but great holds (but that wasn't in the summer).

 

[el sid]

The Monday update looks better for all films:

#1 PotC5: 670k admissions (580k without previews)
#2 A:C: 85k/375k
#3 GotG2: 85k/2.230M
#4 King Arthur: 45k/395k
#5 Hanni & Nanni: 45k/55k
#6 The Boss Baby: 27.5/1.785M
#7 Get Out: 22.5/450k
#8 Fast 8: 20k/3.185M

[miketheavenger]

So GotG2 has now officially passed Avengers' admissions and it could have enough juice to pass Avengers 2 (2.423m) to become the most-attended MCU movie in Germany. What a success story.

[el sid]

It's indeed a split decision between PotC5 and Baywatch: Some big cinema chains give two days of the weekend to each movie, some others give Baywatch the biggest screen and PotC5 the second and third largest and sometimes PotC5 is in biggest cinema hall. The capacity of the theaters isn't the problem here, especially with almost no competition for these two movies.

The reservations don't look bad for Baywatch I have to say but don't expect a too good hold (for PotC5) respectively start (for Baywatch) if the weather stays so sunny. Sunday is the first day which is predicted to be cloudy or even rainy.
Wonder Woman starts here later than in other countries, June the 15th, and The Mummy has the same problem as in the USA, namely that it gets not much attention.

[miketheavenger]

Nr.	Besucher Wochenende	%	Kinos	Schnitt	Besucher bis Sonntag	Woche	Titel (Verleih)	Boxoffice in € Wochenende	Boxoffice in € bis Sonntag		Mögl. Endergebnis in Tsd. Besucher	RT	IMDB
1	577.366	---	776	744	667.090	1	Pirates of the Caribbean - Salazars Rache (BV)	6.381.417	7.380.848		2.400	31	7,2
2	85.533	-55	587	146	375.971	2	Alien - Covenant (FOX)	809.973	3.501.547		525	71	6,8
3	84.446	-45	526	161	2.229.596	5	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (BV)	905.800	24.552.257		2.400	81	8,1
4	44.528	-55	597	75	396.067	3	King Arthur - Legend of the Sword (WB)	471.294	4.139.164		500	28	7,3
5	43.811	---	637	69	52.703	1	Hanni & Nanni - Mehr als beste Freunde (U)	288.201	344.100		400	-	-
6	27.199	-18	505	54	1.783.075	9	The Boss Baby (FOX)	196.040	13.299.159		1.850	52	6,4
7	23.010	-62	417	55	452.360	4	Get Out (U)	207.308	3.854.901		525	99	7,9
8	20.231	-57	337	60	3.189.912	7	Fast & Furious 8 (U)	196.429	29.917.188		3.225	66	7,1
9	17.530	-24	496	35	87.186	3	Überflieger - Kleine Vögel, großes Geklapper (WBU)	113.638	567.965		125	-	6,2
10	17.084	-22	512	33	1.172.071	8	Die Schlümpfe - Das verlorene Dorf (COL)	116.168	8.414.152		1.225	38	5,8
11	9.780	-51	305	32	3.338.962	11	Die Schöne und das Biest (BV)	89.338	32.317.898		3.375	71	7,6
12	8.085	-41	98	83	35.456	2	Jahrhundertfrauen (SPL)	64.924	266.154		60	88	7,4
13	7.367	-34	67	110	27.748	2	Beuys (PIF)	58.425	214.885		50	-	7,1
14	7.117	-55	227	31	434.007	7	Abgang mit Stil (WB)	61.991	3.674.510		450	46	6,8
15	6.026	-65	258	23	195.027	5	Happy Burnout (WB)	50.752	1.564.217		210	-	5,1
16	5.514	-48	223	25	254.477	8	Die Hütte - Ein Wochenende mit Gott (CON)	47.730	2.143.939		275	19	6,3
17	5.359	-49	198	27	144.758	6	Ein Dorf sieht schwarz (PRK)	39.995	1.103.197		160	-	7,1
18	4.893	-46	96	51	39.032	3	Rückkehr nach Montauk (WBU)	39.075	313.017		50	-	5,9
19	4.695	-2	188	25	100.296	4	Expedition Happiness (SCK)	45.012	926.105		110	-	5,4
20	4.289	---	53	81	5.328	1	Song to Song (SC)	36.235	42.658		25	45	6,5

[miketheavenger]

Since it hasn't been updated so far, I've posted the chart for the weekend if that's okay.  Overall a disappointing weekend thanks to near-perfect weather. PotC5 opened much lower than the previous films (with rainy weather it could've done close to 1m) and 3m total seems hard unless it has great legs. Most other films experienced ugly drops, but family stuff held on nicely. Alien: Covenant might make around half of what Prometheus did, and GotG2 is now the second-most-attended MCU movie and it could still catch Avengers 2 to claim the top spot.

 

Next weekend:

 

Baywatch is the big opener for next weekend and it's a bit of a wildcard IMO. The TV show was huge here back in the '90s (maybe even bigger than it was in the US) and there is buzz, but the beautiful weather could keep it from its full potential. I expect an opening in the 350-400k range, which would be solid. Also opening are the new Diary of the Wimpy Kid and two domestic releases, none of which should make above 100k. Weather is predicted to be quite warm and sunny again (with some storms sprinkled in between), so don't expect great numbers.

[George Parr]

First trend is up, though weather can obviously still lead to bigger changes:

 

#1/2 POTC 400k

#1/2 Baywatch 400k (375k without previews)

#3/4 GOTG 2 65k

#3/4 Alien 65k

#5 Hani & Nanni 35k

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

Baywatch: 50k (released in 546 theaters, mixed, mostly modest reviews between 3 and ca. 7/10)
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4: 3.5k (376, mixed reviews, overall pretty bad) -> 35k OW predicted in the first trend
Before I Fall: ?k (154, mostly pretty good reviews) -> 32.5k
In Zeiten des abnehmenden Lichts: 3k (103, mixed reviews, overall quite good) -> 22.5k

Holdovers:

PotC5: 45k (actuals last Thursday (a national holiday) 200k)
Alien: Covenant: 10k (27k)
GotG2: 7k (27k)
King Arthur: 4k (15k)

 

The overall run of PotC5 in Germany is a big disappointment to me but the drop this weekend is absolutely in line with expectations. I really hope it has more luck in the next weeks and evolves good legs.
Baywatch is doing really fine under these circumstances. The average prediction was more like 250k-300k OW, not 400k. The WOM among the audience is also ok so far.
And funny, the original series is back in German TV since a few weeks. Not on a big TV station (it's RTL nitro) but with nice ratings (ca. 4-5% with the younger audience I read in an article). Maybe that helps too or better it shows which impact that thing had once (miketheavenger already mentioned it above) that it's still pretty popular. Even 16 years after the end of this series as I learned in the article ;).

Edited June 2, 2017 by el sid

[Aristis]

In the 2nd Trend movies are down a bit...

 

POTC5 375k (-35%/-44%)

Baywatch 375k

Alien 60k (-30%)

GotG2 55k (-35%)

Hanny&Nanny 37,5k (-15%/-30%)

Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 35k

Wenn du stirbst (...) 32,5k

King Arthur 27,5k (-40%)

 

I hope it'll go up withe next trend. It seems today is not that great, at least here it rained already

 

InsideKino

Edited June 3, 2017 by Aristis

[miketheavenger]

3rd trend has everything going up again like we hoped.

 

PotC5: 400k (-30%/-40%)

Baywatch: 400k (really good start considering the weather)

Alien - Covenant: 65k (-25%)

GotG Vol. 2: 60k (-28%)