BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[Aristis]

The actual for DM3 is 851k, that is 95% and 63% higher than DM1+2 and 9% below Minions.

 

DM1 multipler (5,74x) would be 4,9M

DM2 multipler (7,08x) --> 6M

Minions multipler (7,43x) --> 6,3M

 

I nearly want to say 5M is safe, but it's still early. I do not see a real threat to this the next time.

[Brainbug]

One of the reason moviegoing in Germany is declining i think are the ticket prices. I payed 14 Euro for a Spider-Man ticket today. My nearest cinema offers only 3D screenings so they make it a tad more expensive, but even in 2D that would be 13,50 Euro. Thats preventing me from going to the movies a lot and many of my friends just wait for the BRay-Release now because they are not willing to pay that much money unless the movie is called Star Wars.

[IndustriousAngel]

ticket prices are one obstacle, that's for sure ... personally, I prefer 2D if available. Most theaters and chains offer bonus cards ore something like that so your average ticket would be more in the €10,-- class (for 2D I pay €7,-- or someting like that) but that's for those who regularely attend anyway. Casual moviegoers are positively turned away by those prices; it's the rare movie that gets so much WOM that even people outside the usual movie-going demo walk in (Intouchables was a good example)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Despicable Me 3	851.080	760	1.120	855.421	7.679.289	-	1
2	Transformers 5	110.278	627	176	935.457	10.816.208	-62	3
3	Das Pubertier	69.022	351	197	69.022	582.375	-	1
4	Baywatch	55.547	536	104	1.702.676	14.179.609	-60	6
5	Rough Trip	51.409	479	107	242.159	2.024.731	-57	2
6	Pirates of the Caribbean 5	49.447	454	109	2.394.862	25.256.958	-57	7
7	Wonder Woman	42.200	434	97	663.522	7.070.443	-61	4
8	The Mummy	23.079	320	72	613.962	6.651.897	-64	5
9	Un Profil Pour Deux	13.907	272	51	144.608	1.067.486	-66	3
10	Miss Sloane	10.426	77	135	30.550	200.604	-	1
11	The Beguiled	9.624	114	84	51.371	430.460	-67	2
12	La La Land	9.459	18	526	1.689.967	14.377.861	+958	26
13	Hanni & Nanni	8.111	486	17	315.163	1.986.297	-80	7
14	Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4	7.772	481	16	270.747	1.722.041	-84	6
15	Sommerfest	6.501	148	44	52.225	423.733	-77	2
16	Everything, Everything	5.545	152	36	66.832	505.157	-66	3
17	All Eyez on Me	5.505	171	32	176.850	1.700.345	-73	4
18	Bob the Builder	5.405	460	12	84.236	532.816	-81	4
19	This Beautiful Fantastic	4.902	70	70	65.597	491.285	-60	4
20	In Zeiten des abnehmenden Lichts	4.503	125	36	153.310	1.195.524	-58	6

 

Quite a good opening for Despicable Me 3 - miles ahead of DM1 and 2 and not that far behind the Minions. 5 million admissions total are looking real good at the moment. The harsh drops among holdovers were expected. Domestic comedy Das Pubertier (book adaption) did better than expected and might have some nice legs.

 

Next weekend: The next maybe-blockbuster gets released: Spiderman: Homecoming should see some success; Spidey was always one of the better-known superheroes in Germany. While it won't reach the heights of Sam Raimi's 2002 Spiderman (>5mil admissions), there's a real (if slim) possibility it can reach 3mil total. For now I'll stay conservative with a 600k opening weekend, but would be very pleased with better numbers!

[Aristis]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

Wow, La La Land back to the Top20! The Boss Baby left the Top20 so probably no 2M+...

 

Next weeks chase for the 1st position could be quite interesting! I could imagine DM3 with a minimal drop (750k+), seems like weather could be a bit worse, and a total of 1,8M+ after the weekend. As for Spiderman, I don't think it'll do better than GOTG2 but I could imagine a total of 2M+. But I would be OK if I were wrong I'll vote for the Minions

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, I'd say DM3 has a good chance at winning the weekend!

LaLaLand must have been some event, probably OpenAir screenings or something like that. Expect some more comebacks over the summer, especially for arthousey fare and WOM hits!

[Brainbug]

Ill contribute to Spidey. Im rooting for it to open at No. 1.

[IndustriousAngel]

23 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Ill contribute to Spidey. Im rooting for it to open at No. 1.

about that #1 for S:H ... it's only my theater, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's not looking that strong - in fact, atm I'd be glad if my "conservative" 600k OW became true because franky it's looking like <500 here.

[Aristis]

Spider-Man-Movies:

 

(OW admissions/OW-Theaters/Total)

 

SMH has to do at least 400k, if not that seems like a flop to me. And it should have a total bigger than TASM1...

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, Aristis said:

Spider-Man-Movies:

 

(OW admissions/OW-Theaters/Total)

 

SMH has to do at least 400k, if not that seems like a flop to me. And it should have a total bigger than TASM1...

the 1st spiderman made more than 5m admission? 

that must be an jurassic era for CBM in germany...it make ASM looked to be a flop....

[miketheavenger]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

the 1st spiderman made more than 5m admission? 

that must be an jurassic era for CBM in germany...it make ASM looked to be a flop....

It's the only CBM to crack the 5m mark. Beside the original Superman (1978) no other CBM has even reached 4m admissions, so SM1 is really an outlier and shouldn't be taken as the standard for Spider-Man films here.

[IndustriousAngel]

that's true, today with CBM inflation half of that would be a super result! But Spidey was always a bit more popular than most of the other Superheroes ... I guess the TASM movies dragged the must-see factor down.

[fmpro]

No weekend prejections?

[el sid]

Not yet. But we have some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 70k (released in 622 theaters, Blickpunkt:Film says 598, a few negative but mostly good and very good reviews. As mentioned already in this forum, the Sam Raimi-trilogy had averaging 3.9M total admissions, the Amazing Spider-Man 321k an OW and 1.55M total admissions, The Amazing Spider-Man2 an 373k OW and 1.1M total admissions) - Blickpunkt:Film predicts an OW of 450k but we'll see if Mark_G confirms that.
Auf der anderen Seite ist das Gras viel grüner: 1.8k (a German RomCom, 181, mixed reviews between 2 and 7.5/10)
Zum Verwechseln ähnlich (Il a déjà tes yeux): 2.3k (170, overall ok reviews)
Gifted: 2.7k (113, ok and good reviews)
Fallen-Engelsnacht: 1.5k (105, pretty bad reviews, the movie often gets only one show/day and that in the afternoon, still it was #2 of the newbies from reservations in mathäser)
Berlin Falling: 2.5k (only 13.-15.7. in 162 theaters, ok to very good reviews)

Holdovers - at least a better weekend than the last one is incoming for them:

Despicable Me 3: 85k (last Thursday 135k – I always take the actuals for comparison except for PotC5 and Baywatch)
Transformers 5: 10k (15.5k)
Baywatch: 8k (estimated 5.5k)
Das Pubertier: 15k (10k)

The weather in the South of Germany was excellent yesterday but the weekend is predicted to be more bad than sunny everywhere which will help a lot as you know.

Edited July 14, 2017 by el sid

[abra]

TREND 1 

 

Despicable Me 3: 575k

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 400k
Transformers 5: 65k
Baywatch: 50k
 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2017 by abra

[IndustriousAngel]

#1: DM3 - 575k (-32%)

#2: S:H - 400k

#3: Pubertier - 100k (+45%, wow)

[Aristis]

DM3 with probably 1,8M+ admissions after the weekend, while my prediction for the weekend itself was wrong at least my projection for the total is correct. If that drop holds it wouldn't be that good, Minions increased to over a Million admissions on the second weekend...

 

 

But the weather could be worse over the weekend, so...

400k for SMH is OK, maybe it's more a family film, than it could increase with the next Trend.

 

TF5 -41%

Baywatch -11%

[miketheavenger]

Was hoping for better results for DM3 and Spider-Man. Hopefully it will improve over the weekend thanks to worse weather.

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturdsay Update: DM3 up to 600k for the weekend, S:H down to 350.

[el sid]

That's much lower for Spider-Man that I thought/hoped. Probably the fatigue is bigger here than elsewhere. Because the weather is indeed not to blame, at least here in Bavaria where it's grey and cold and yesterday it rained hefty several times.

The numbers of the holdovers are pretty pleasant. PotC5 has also an impressive hold: 40k (-19%) and WW is doing ok too with 25k (-41%).