BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[Poseidon]

So I thought i could do a little preview for German BO in 2013.

It probably won't be the year of the big blockbusters, but i expect a lot of mid sized hits.

Here we go.

1. Well, at this point, there's only one contender for 2013s Box Office crown and that is "The Hobbit: Part 2". The first one is having an amazing run, after what was kind of a disappointing opening. At the moment, that one should be on its way to 7m admissions and that's exactly what I expect for the sequel. 7,0m

2. "The Medicus" is really a bestseller over here, maybe even bigger than "Perfume" and "Pope Joan". The first teaser looks amazing, much better than "Pope Joan" and much more hollywood-like, also with a great lead actor. I think it should do 4,0m admissions, maybe even more.

3. Til Schweiger is the hero of german box office for a couple of years now, with 3 movies above the 4m admission mark over the last 5 years. He may not be that popular with critics, but audiences love his stories and I really think, that "Keinohrhasen" and "Kokowääh" were some really nice, funny and touching movies. I mentioned "Kokowääh" before, that became one of the surprise hits of 2011. The trailer for the sequel, "Kokowääh 2" looks decent and I think the drop in admissions won't be as big this time compared to "Keinohrhasen"/"Zweiohrküken". I expect 3,4m admissions.

4. "Despicable Me" was a pleasant box office surprise back in 2010, not only in the USA, but also in Germany. It developed pretty good legs, after an already surprising opening. Last time, it opened in late september, this time "Despicable Me 2" is getting a release in mid summer. Well, with "Kung Fu Panda 2" dropping considerably from it's predecessor, i should be more careful for this, but with the right minions-marketing and some rainy weekends in summer, i'm quite sure, that this can do a little "Shrek" and top the first movie for 3,2m visitors.

5. Another better-than-expected animation hit was "The Smurfs" in 2011. It came close to the 3m admission mark and had a decent multiplier after what was a big OW. "The Smurfs 2" opening a month after "Despicable Me 2" and only faces "Percy Jackson" and "The Lone Ranger" (I don't expect them to be big) in the following weeks, so another big run seems possible. Now the question is, can it have an increase like Alvin? I don't think it will be that big, but i expect it to do 3,0m this time, a slight increase.

6. Another German Hit could be Söhnke Wortmanns "Schoßgebete". It's been 4 years since his last BO hit, "Pope Joan", but now he's back with the adaption of the bestselling book here in Germany. "Schoßgebete" is the second novel of Charlotte Roche, after her very succesfull "Feuchtgebiete". Well, I think you really can't adapt "Feuchtgebiete", that, although having read neither that, nor "Schoßgebete", would probably end up with what would be an NC-17 rating in the US. Well, it seems like they adapted "Schoßgebete" as a comedy and we Germans love our comedies, so i wouldn't be surprised, if the movie would end up with 3.0m. admissions.

7. "Hangover 2" had a massive increase over part 1, but that was expected, as "Hangover" became a modern comedy classic all over the world. Part 2 actually had a decent multiplier and people seemed to like it, but it was far from being as good and funny as the first one and so i expect "Hangover 3" to drop to a still very solid 2,8m.

8. "The Hunger Games" opened a little underwhelming, but cleared 2m admissions after a very nice and long run. "Catching Fire" may not get hyped as "New Moon" was for the Twilight franchise, but i think the first movie helped the franchise to grow here, so it should manage to jump to 2,7m admissions.

9. Pixar is really having a hard time at the German BO the last couple of years, with "Toy Story 3", "Cars 2" and "Brave" underperforming. "Toy Story 3" should be the movie to compare "Monster's University" with, so I expect it to drop from "Monster's INC.", but not as much as "Toy Story 3" did. I think that Pixar lost many adult viewers with the last 3 movies, I think some should come back for the humor of Mike and Sully in "Monster*s Univerity" for 2,6m admissions.

10. Well, Til Schweiger is getting older and who know's how long audiences want to see him in his roles, but there's another very promising actor/writer/director named Matthias Schweighöfer, who had a couple of very successfull movies in the last couple of years. His newest feature is named "Schlussmacher", a movie about a man, whose business is to break up with his clients partners, and the trailer looks very good and funny. It's opening only 3 weeks before "Kokowääh 2", so it may be limited by that one, but i still think it could be big and Schweighöfers biggest movie as a director with 2,5m admissions.

11. Well, remember, we love comedies over here, and we also love Sandra Bullock in comedies (Okay, there was no love left for "All about Steve", but who could love that mess of a movie?). "The Heat" has some R-Rated "Miss Congeniality"-vibe, a big success 10 years ago. Early reactions for that movie seem to be great and even though the trailer is not the best ever, it is still very funny and with new comedy star Melissa Mc Cartney I could see this movie become a little break out hit with 2,5m admissions.

12. "Inglorious Basterds" became Tarantino's biggest movie here 3 years ago and it really had an amazing run to over 2m admissions. With "Django Unchained" kind of breaking out in the USA and with its very famous cast, especially with Christoph Waltz in another main role, i can see this ending up even bigger than "Inglorious Basterds" with 2,4m viewers.

13. As "Ice Age" is Germanys biggest animation franchise by a mile, so Blue Sky should be our biggest studio for animations, but there's no other Blue Sky movie with more than 2m admissions, even though all others still were kind of sucessfull. "Epic" seems like a great adventure and has some great trailers, so i think i could manage to do 2,2m admissions.

14. Well, Roland Emmerich has had some big blockbusters over here, even with destructing earth again in "2012" he came back from the disappointment "10000 BC" was. His newest movie, "White House Down" really doesn't look like the typical Emmerich movie, but maybe that's a good thing. As a "normal" action movie i don't see it that big, but 2,2m admissions still would be a great achievement.

15. Bora Dagtekin and Elyas M'Barek had a big comedy success this spring with "Türkisch für Anfänger", a movie to the series with the same name. Now they team up again with a movie called "F*** you Goethe", what looks to end up as a school comedy.

It's hard to judge without a trailer, but i think they could do it again with 2,2m admissions.

16. You thought the Fast & Furious was dead after Tokyo Drift? Well, you were wrong. They grew bigger and bigger here with adding some of the biggest action stars of our time. Even though "Fast 5" was very well received and by far the biggest movie of the franchise, I can't see "Fast 6" getting bigger again, I actually see a slight decrease, but 2,1m visitors still would be great.

17. "Tangled" was a big comeback here for Disney Animation, the comeback of the classic Disney princess, after "The Princess and the Frog" was just a mid-sized hit. We don't know very much about "Frozen", yet, but i can't see it being a comedy like "Tangled" was, so it should be more difficult to do big numbers. It still should get a slight boost from Tangleds success, so i see 2,1m admissions for "Frozen".

18. 2009s Star Trek may not have been the franchises big comeback in theaters, but i think it will be its comeback for future movies, as people had the chance to see it on DVD now and recognized, that it's not the 90s/early 00s Star Trek anymore. I think "Star Trek into Darkness" should nearly double its predecessors numbers with 2,0m admissions.

Other movies that could reach the 2m admissions mark:

Die Hard 5 ( I can't see it doing Die Hard 4-numbers again, more like 1,5m-2m admissions.

Les Miserables ( The musical is not THAT big in Germany and it probably won't help either, that there won't be much dialogue in it, but who knows?)

3096 Tage (It depends on how the press is going to react to this, at the moment i could see this do anything between 0,2m and 2m admissions, maybe even more)

Oz - The great and Powerful (Alice was big over here, but that was due to 3D-hype. Should be more in the 1-1,5m range, but i could be wrong.)

The Croods (Same as Pixar, Dreamworks is not what it used to be, but maybe the Avatar-Feeling can push it over 2m admissions. I'm thinking more like 1-1,5m at the moment.)

1000 AE (Will Smith is very big in Germany, but i think you see in the Trailer, that this is not a Will Smith Movie. Jaden was successfull with "Karate Kid" in 2010 and I think "1000 AE" should end up in that range, maybe a bit closer to 2m admissions.)

World War Z (Brad Pitt is a draw here as well with the right movie, but i'm not sure if this could be another "I am Legend", more like 1,3m admissions.)

Grown Up's 2 (Part one had more than 2m admissions, but Sandler is not a guarantee for big numbers anymore, so I see more like 1,5m for Part 2.)

The Lone Ranger (Well, it's Johnny Depp in another Jack Sparrow adaption, but i can't see how this movie should work in Germany. I wouldn't be that surprised by under 1m admissions.)

Turbo (Well, it's Dreamworks Animation, but i really can't see this being big at the moment.)

Same for Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Walking with Dinosaurs (We don't know much about that, seems like kind of a documentary but it's about dinosaurs, everybody loves dinosaurs so never say never.)

As for the Superheroes: "Avengers" only barely crossed 2m admissions with all of them together in 1 movie, I can't see "Thor" and "Iron Man 3" increasing to more than 1,5m, "X-Man" Franchise is dead and "Man of Steel" would need a wonder to come back from the massive flop "Superman Returns" was.

Okay, that was a very long posting. If you didn't stop reading in the middle of the text and read it till here, i hope you enjoyed it.

[IndustriousAngel]

Thank you, nice overview!

12. "Inglorious Basterds" became Tarantino's biggest movie here 3 years ago and it really had an amazing run to over 2m admissions. With "Django Unchained" kind of breaking out in the USA and with its very famous cast, especially with Christoph Waltz in another main role, i can see this ending up even bigger than "Inglorious Basterds" with 2,4m viewers.

Sounds reasonable but I hope it can get even higher. There's good buzz out there and it might even get some nomination publicity. 3mil might be possible!

[druv10]

IndustriousAngel, do you know why superhero movies aren't popular in Germany/Austria? Considering how big TA was, it did shockingly bad in Germany compared to rest of the world.

[Poseidon]

I think it's pretty easy, even though i'm not IndustriousAngel: We don't read comics...

[druv10]

I think it's pretty easy, even though i'm not IndustriousAngel: We don't read comics...

Thanks. Sadly, I guess there is no hope for SH movies in Germany. Edited January 3, 2013 by druv10

[peludo]

IndustriousAngel, do you know why superhero movies aren't popular in Germany/Austria? Considering how big TA was, it did shockingly bad in Germany compared to rest of the world.

It is not only Germany but whole Europe. Avengers did not break records in any European country and has grossed average amounts everywhere, excepting UK and Russia where it has reached very good numbers (although not number 1):10th of the year in Austria (3 million vs 10 million of the biggest of the year)9th in Belgium (4 vs 10)11th in Czech Republic (1.7 vs 4.5)7th in Denmark (5 vs 14)18th in Finland (1.4 vs 8.3)6th in France because Hobbit will outgross it (37 vs 57)10th in Germany (30 vs 90, probably)7th in Greece (2.6 vs 5.7)4th in Italy (22 vs 33)7th in Netherlands (6.6 vs 21)8th in Norway (5.6 vs 14)15th in Poland (3.1 vs 10.8)6th in Portugal (2.5 vs 5.2)6th in Spain (20 vs 53)6th in Sweden (7.6 vs 16)In spite of being the biggest OS movie of the year with a comfortable difference, it has not been number 1 of the year in any European country.

[druv10]

It is not only Germany but whole Europe. Avengers did not break records in any European country and has grossed average amounts everywhere, excepting UK and Russia where it has reached very good numbers (although not number 1):10th of the year in Austria (3 million vs 10 million of the biggest of the year)9th in Belgium (4 vs 10)11th in Czech Republic (1.7 vs 4.5)7th in Denmark (5 vs 14)18th in Finland (1.4 vs 8.3)6th in France because Hobbit will outgross it (37 vs 57)10th in Germany (30 vs 90, probably)7th in Greece (2.6 vs 5.7)4th in Italy (22 vs 33)7th in Netherlands (6.6 vs 21)8th in Norway (5.6 vs 14)15th in Poland (3.1 vs 10.8)6th in Portugal (2.5 vs 5.2)6th in Spain (20 vs 53)6th in Sweden (7.6 vs 16)In spite of being the biggest OS movie of the year with a comfortable difference, it has not been number 1 of the year in any European country.

This just shows, how massive it was in Asia and Latin America to compensate for the lackluster performance in Europe.

[John Marston]

if Avengers had done just as well in Europe it could have flirted with 1 billion overseas

[peludo]

This just shows, how massive it was in Asia and Latin America to compensate for the lackluster performance in Europe.

60+ in Brazil, Mexico or South Korea and 10+ in every Asian Southeast countries show what you said. Opposite is happening with Hobbit. Average numbers in Asia and Latin America, and big numbers (even some impressive number as German) in Europe. Just different tastes.

[druv10]

60+ in Brazil, Mexico or South Korea and 10+ in every Asian Southeast countries show what you said. Opposite is happening with Hobbit. Average numbers in Asia and Latin America, and big numbers (even some impressive number as German) in Europe. Just different tastes.

As a Hobbit fan, I'm thanking Europe because fishnets and rest of the haters would've been insufferable. :D

[IndustriousAngel]

I think it's pretty easy, even though i'm not IndustriousAngel: We don't read comics...

At least not SH comics. Asterix or Lucky Luke are very popular, and some of Ralf König's comics were adapted to medium-success films.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany + Austria Top 13 Dec 20-23

TW	LW	Movie	Studio	Weekend	Change	Gross	Week
1	1	The Hobbit 1	WB	$ 15.401.086	-7,3	47.330.557	2
2	N	Pitch Perfect	UPI	$ 2.253.213	-	3.352.245	1
3	3	Skyfall	Sony	$ 1.574.811	-10,3	87.657.330	8
4	2	Breaking Dawn 2	Concorde/Const.	$ 1.289.970	-37,2	40.913.839	5
5	N	Jesus liebt mich	WB	$ 1.246.406	-	2.071.626	1
6	4	Wreck-it Ralph	Disney	$ 1.099.849	-30,2	6.562.312	3
7	N	Sammy 2	StudioCanal/Const.	$ 839.222	-	1.424.537	1
8	5	Rise of the Guardians	UPI/PPI	$ 753.942	-24,4	5.927.706	4
9	N	End of Watch	Tobis/Const.	$ 604.661	-	974.068	1
10	7	Anna Karenina	UPI	$ 448.497	-16,2	2.152.317	3
11	6	Cloud Atlas	WB / X-V.	$ 394.412	-32,4	12.239.529	6
12	8	Silent Hill: Revelation	Concorde/Const.	$ 240.569	-37,5	2.971.005	4
13	12	Niko 2	Univ./Const.	$ 208.406	-2,9	3.346.060	8

4 openers made it to the Top10, Pitch Perfect off to a good start as well as german comedy "Jesus Loves Me". Excellent holds for H1, Skyfall and Anna Karenina; the first bad drop for "Cloud Atlas". WiR keeps dropping ...

[lazymangod]

How about life of pi?

[IndustriousAngel]

How about life of pi?

Just opened last weekend; numbers until Sunday: 566k admissions from Germany, and 55k from Austria (including Wed/Thu). Has good WOM and should have a decent drop (<30% I hope)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

German Box Office Hits All-Time Record in 2012

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/german-box-office-2012-record-408404

[IndustriousAngel]

Nice! But:

Revenue and attendance figures shot up, affirming Germany's continued position as a rock-solid territory in what has become a shaky European neighborhood.

That's true but we have to keep in mind that the Germans are maybe reliable but always reluctant when it comes to visiting the cinema. With more than 81mil inhabitants, admissions are at about 130mil/year, or 1.6 tickets per capita and year. Compare that to Austria - very similar market, but about 16mil admissions from 8mil inhabitants (2.0 per capita) - to say nothing of France: 65mil inhabitants, 210mil admissions --> 3.2 tickets per capita and year. The average Frenchman attends movies twice as often as your average German. The Brits are at 2.7, still a lot more than Austria and Germany.

Overview of European market

Edited January 4, 2013 by IndustriousAngel

[Poseidon]

How about life of pi?

Should eclipse 2m admissions in the end, maybe as high as 2,5m which is very, very good.I'm still shocked, that the movie didn't work as well in the USA as i originally thought.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Lop worked well everywhere else.

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday trend for Germany's weekend:Hobbit1: 725k (drop is harder than I expected)Life of Pi: 350k (very good drop)JackReacher: 275k (ok opening)PitchPerfect: 200kVampirschwestern: 175k

[Elessar]

Same weekend (their 3rd weekend):FOTR -35%TTT -40%ROTK -44%-42% is in line with those.Next weekend could be ugly. Except FOTR, they dropped over 50%.

Edited January 4, 2013 by Elessar