BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[Aristis]

42 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Agree, but I don't want to jinx it.

 

Nonetheless, 6.38m after this weekend is really great and 2m more should most likely happen after this weekend. (Could probably drop close to 40% next weekend and still have a solid shot at 8m)

If it dropped 40% next WE it'd still approach 7,2M already. I really can't see it missing 8M at this point - it just shouldn't start to drop that bad after the kind of holds it had (even dropping like RO after this WE it'd get to 7,93M and it won't do that bad - RO dropped 57% in its 5th WE) 

 

9M still isn't certain but it is far from improbable and has a quite realistic shot. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Aristis

[Samwise the Brave]

Just came here after months to check the reactions and i'm not disappointed. 5th place in the all time list after tomorrow is locked and Titanic is probably toast if it drops less than -40% next weekend and -25% throughout. Would be funny if the end result is something like 127M€ but Titanic's re-release never lets Avatar pass because it will be the first to cross 130M€

[Danhjpn]

9M admits would be ~$130M 

$14.4 ATP 

[Poseidon]

Just as a reminder:

 

It would be nice if you guys would at least name the source of most of the german numbers over here. that's including trends as well as official charts.

 

There's someone out there working hard to privide those numbers with insidekino.de.

At least give him the traffic he deserves instead of just copying the numbers. 

 

[Aristis]

10 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Just as a reminder:

 

It would be nice if you guys would at least name the source of most of the german numbers over here. that's including trends as well as official charts.

 

There's someone out there working hard to privide those numbers with insidekino.de.

At least give him the traffic he deserves instead of just copying the numbers. 

 

You are right. I do it mostly when I take bigger chunks of data but I guess I should do it more often. I'm really thankful for that page. 

[Samwise the Brave]

Speaking of him this is what he has to say in his forums

 

I hate to say it (not true, of course), but if things continue like this, then a certain film could even make the best 4th WE of all time (nearly)...

[Samwise the Brave]

"Knapp" translated to nearly here but in this context it means just a smidge over. Will probably be 50/50

[JustLurking]

Holy fuck, Titanic is 1.069M. Even a slight miss at 1.05M would be nuts.

Edited January 7, 2023 by JustLurking

[Brainbug]

Anecdotical evidence, but Avatar 2 is the first movie post-Covid that i hear people talk about in (and outside) my university circle. Last time i felt that a movie is beeing discussed by people around me was Endgame.

[Aristis]

3rd Trend

 

Avatar 2 1,07M (+0%) 6,45M - is it really happening? 👀

 

PiB2 260k (+26%) 1M

Operation Fortune 145k

 

http://www.insidekino.de/News.htm

Edited January 8, 2023 by Aristis

[Sophia Jane]

Better than Titanic 4th weekend?

[Aristis]

3 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Better than Titanic 4th weekend?

Well, the estimate is 1,07M to 1,069M so it's a narrow lead - but it seems to be a lead. So yes. After 25 years we might have a new fourth weekend record!

[Samwise the Brave]

6.45M even and it's already 5th in the all time list after Saturday not Sunday

[Aristis]

4 minutes ago, Samwise the Brave said:

6.45M even and it's already 5th in the all time list after Saturday not Sunday

Right. I edited my mistake which now never happened 

[Sophia Jane]

Now For me Germany is top 2 best performance big market for A2 after France and along with India

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Aristis said:

3rd Trend

 

Avatar 2 1,07M (+0%) 6,45M - is it really happening? 👀

 

PiB2 260k (+26%) 1M

Operation Fortune 145k

 

http://www.insidekino.de/News.htm

Really interested if he will change the total prediction to 9m (or maybe even more). Even just following ROs drops from here it would get to roughly 8.15m.

 

Spoiler

On 12/30/2022 at 11:24 AM, Taruseth said:

400k on Thursday (or a little less) - 5.2m € -> ATP only a little above 13 € (that's low)

 

In 2016 RO had the following weekend drops -55% then +2% and -31% (dropping to second place about 25 % behind Passenger).

Avatar has done -36% and now about +22 %.

Will it be able to do -15% for 750k next weekend?

My hope for the future:

Avatar:

OD: 174k

OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)

OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)

2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k)

2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)

3rd Wend: 900k (Total 4550k)

3rd Wdays: 550k (Total 5100k)

4th Wend: 750k (Total 5850k) (-17%)

4th Wdays: 150k (Total 6000k)

5th Wend: 500k (Total 6500k) (-33%)

5th Wdays: 100k (Total 6600k)

6th Wend: 400k (Total 7000k) (-20%)

6th Wdays: 50k (Total 7050k)

7th Wend: 250k (Total 7300k) (-38%)

7th Wdays: 30k (Total 7330k)

8th Wend: 150k (Total 7480k) (-40%)

8th Wdays: 20k (Total 7500k)

9th Wend: 100k (Total 7600k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend

9th Wdays: 20k (Total 7620k)

10th Wend: 80k (Total 7700k) (-20%)

10th Wdays: 15k (Total 7715k)

After that another 250k for 7965k total and ≈103m € ≈ $109m

 

Avatar - path to 10m:

OD: 174k

OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)

OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)

2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k) (-36%)

2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)

3rd Wend: 1067k (Total 4716k) (+167k/+166k) (+45%)(differences due to rounding)

3rd Wdays: 660k (Total 5380k) (+110k/+280k)

4th Wend: 1070k (Total 6450k) (+320k/+600k) (+0%)

 

4th Wdays: 220k (Total 6670k) (+70k/+670k)

5th Wend: 800k (Total 7470k) (+300k/+970k) (-25%)

5th Wdays: 160k (Total 7630k) (+60k /+1030k)

6th Wend: 650k (Total 8280k) (+250k /+1280k) (-19%)

6th Wdays: 120k (Total 8400k) (+70k/+1350k) 

7th Wend: 450k (Total 8850k) (+200k/+1550k) (-31%)

7th Wdays: 80k (Total 8930k) (+50k/+1600k)

8th Wend: 300k (Total 9230k) (+150k/+1750k) (-33%)

8th Wdays: 60k (Total 9290k) (+40k/+1790k)

9th Wend: 200k (Total 9490k) (+100k/+1890k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend

9th Wdays: 40k (Total 9530k) (+20k/+1910k)

10th Wend: 150k (Total 9680k) (+70k/+1980k)(-25%)

10th Wdays: 30k (Total 9710k) (+15k/+1995k)

After that another 300k for 10010k (+50k/+2045k) total ATP 13.1€ and ≈131m € ≈ $140m

Comp to Avatar with rereleases (adm/€/$): -14% / +10%/-??%

Edited January 8, 2023 by Taruseth

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

Really interested if he will change the total prediction to 9m (or maybe even more). Even just following ROs drops from here it would get to roughly 8.15m.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Avatar - path to 10m:

OD: 174k

OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)

OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)

2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k) (-36%)

2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)

3rd Wend: 1067k (Total 4716k) (+167k/+166k) (+45%)(differences due to rounding)

3rd Wdays: 660k (Total 5380k) (+110k/+280k)

4th Wend: 1070k (Total 6450k) (+320k/+600k) (+0%)

 

4th Wdays: 220k (Total 6670k) (+70k/+670k)

5th Wend: 800k (Total 7470k) (+300k/+970k) (-25%)

5th Wdays: 160k (Total 7630k) (+60k /+1030k)

6th Wend: 650k (Total 8280k) (+250k /+1280k) (-19%)

6th Wdays: 120k (Total 8400k) (+70k/+1350k) 

7th Wend: 450k (Total 8850k) (+200k/+1550k) (-31%)

7th Wdays: 80k (Total 8930k) (+50k/+1600k)

8th Wend: 300k (Total 9230k) (+150k/+1750k) (-33%)

8th Wdays: 60k (Total 9290k) (+40k/+1790k)

9th Wend: 200k (Total 9490k) (+100k/+1890k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend

9th Wdays: 40k (Total 9530k) (+20k/+1910k)

10th Wend: 150k (Total 9680k) (+70k/+1980k)(-25%)

10th Wdays: 30k (Total 9710k) (+15k/+1995k)

After that another 300k for 10010k (+50k/+2045k) total ATP 13.1€ and ≈131m € ≈ $140m

 

I asked him on WOKJ and he said he thinks 9M is 90% likely while 10M is 40% likely as of now.

[Andreas]

39 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I asked him on WOKJ and he said he thinks 9M is 90% likely while 10M is 40% likely as of now.

If A2 makes more money in Germany than in France I..

 

Spoiler

werde nach Deutschland ziehen. Unironischerweise, unabhängig vom Erfolg dieses Films in Deutschland, habe ich die letzten 3 Jahre darüber nachgedacht.

 

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, Andreas said:

If A2 makes more money in Germany than in France I..

 

  Hide contents

werde nach Deutschland ziehen. Unironischerweise, unabhängig vom Erfolg dieses Films in Deutschland, habe ich die letzten 3 Jahre darüber nachgedacht.

 

 

Spoiler

Als jemand der hier lebt kann ich sagen: Wir haben eine Menge Probleme und unsere Regierung ist seit Jahren eine einzige Realsatire, aber es lässt sich trotzdem sehr gut leben in Deutschland.

 

[Taruseth]

15 minutes ago, Andreas said:

If A2 makes more money in Germany than in France I..

 

  Hide contents

werde nach Deutschland ziehen. Unironischerweise, unabhängig vom Erfolg dieses Films in Deutschland, habe ich die letzten 3 Jahre darüber nachgedacht.

 

won't be easy. Needs great holds in Germany and not so good in France.