BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[Aristis]

Sunday: Zoo at 175K now (>30%) The other stuff stays flat

[IndustriousAngel]

20 hours ago, Aristis said:

Sunday: Zoo at 175K now (>30%) The other stuff stays flat

 

Seems overestimated; the final Zootopia number is reported as 145k (-45%); must have had a horrible Sunday (well, weather WAS better Sunday). In Austria, it was the other way round - even a healthy increase from last weekend, Zoo has already crossed 300k total (with JB opening, 400k are out of reach though)

 

BvS: -52% in Germany, oooouch (in Austria, about -40%)

 

btw, both big openers did a bit better in Austria, too - it seems we had a much stronger overall weekend than Germany, probably weather conditions.

Edited April 11, 2016 by IndustriousAngel

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	How to Be Single	206.605	377	548	252.722	2.145.471	-	1
2	Zootopia	145.349	729	199	3.064.025	25.437.933	-44	6
3	The Huntsman: Winter's War	131.888	595	222	131.888	1.450.874	-	1
4	Batman v Superman	128.007	693	185	1.326.674	14.716.181	-51	3
5	Kung Fu Panda 3	52.115	680	77	716.394	5.498.531	-49	4
6	En Man Som Heter Ove	51.752	140	370	73.683	540.523	-	1
7	Der geilste Tag	36.159	498	73	1.583.064	12.953.301	-46	7
8	10 Cloverfield Lane	36.040	358	101	139.858	1.105.906	-39	2
9	Le Goût des merveilles	32.046	259	124	271.900	2.022.192	-4	5
10	Eddie the Eagle	31.195	453	69	147.226	1.038.053	-46	2
11	Allegiant	20.069	373	54	372.346	3.035.179	-52	4
12	Dirty Grandpa	19.847	276	72	1.290.570	10.514.587	-43	9
13	London Has Fallen	17.645	281	63	361.873	3.048.050	-44	5
14	Ip Man 3	15.466	124	125	15.466	166.659	-	1
15	Deadpool	14.683	265	55	2.658.603	22.574.088	-45	9
16	Bibi & Tina 3	12.756	325	39	1.896.405	11.929.754	-40	12
17	My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2	9.044	356	25	141.619	1.152.397	-59	3
18	Spotlight	8.320	168	50	320.906	2.685.511	-37	7
19	Das Tagebuch der Anne Frank	7.947	319	25	316.306	2.354.289	-19	6
20	Un Tango Más	7.349	44	167	9.140	72.529	-	1

 

The openers did about what was expected from them - HtbS profited from a dry rom-com market (and should continue to do so), Huntsman dropped hard from SnowWhite (and will drop again next weekend), and Swedish bestseller adaption "En Man Som Heter Ove" managed a good PTA on its limited screens and might see a slight expansion.

Among holdovers, Zootopia broke the 3mil blockbuster treshold - congratulations, the first 2016 release to do so! BvS continued to plummet. Still in the Top10: Sleeper hit "Le Goût des merveilles" which has very stable admissions week after week - while the low PTA doesn't warrant an expansion, it might continue to 500k admissions total, nice surprise and more admissions than in ist home market!

 

Next weekend: The big story is of course Jungle Book - the hand-animated one was one of the most successful movies in German history, and it's still well-loved. The question is how well this translates to today's CGI-fest - reviews praised the look but were not too enthusiastic overall. Still, everything below a 600k opening I'd consider a disappointment.

Other noteworthy openers: Hardcore Henry and The Lady in the Van. Since the current actioners don't seem to be well received, HH might actually profit from the dry market and make it into the Top5.

[el sid]

I'm really curious about the performance of The Jungle Book. Sadly presales look surprisingly low in several theaters at the moment but at least the weather is doing a fine job. It changed here in Bavaria within 30 minutes from sunny and warm to cold with hefty rain and wind. And the weather service says this will mostly continue over the weekend.

There's an interesting aspect: TJB got the biggest cinema-halls in the afternoon but not in the evening at mathäser (and some other big theaters) which means that they think it's more of a parents-with-(little-)kids film. But from bookings it looks more like this will be an evening/event film for groups and couples (reminds me of the Ice Age crowd) and not primarily a film for the whole family with kids.
Perhaps this is only the case in „my“ theaters and maybe Saturday and Sunday will give a different picture but my guess would be that TJB is not „sweet“ and harmless enough looking (especially Shere Khan) to attract that many moviegoers with little kids.

But this is only my first impression and there is almost no WOM so far which could cause a different situation. Hopefully.

 

[cannastop]

Why do discussions of the box office in Germany always involve the weather?

[George Parr]

6 hours ago, cannastop said:

Why do discussions of the box office in Germany always involve the weather?

 

Because the weather has a huge impact on the box office?

 

First, Germans love good weather. If the sun is shining, box office is dead, especially if it gets warm as well. Rain and cold are the time to go and watch movies, which is why the winter is the best time for both the box office and tv-ratings.

Second, Germany isn't the USA, from a weather standpoint it is a rather small area, a heatwave will likely affect the whole country or at the very least a large part of it. With Germany being in the midst of the westwind-drift, and all the mountain-chains in continental Europe going west-east and not north-south, we don't really have all that many big weather-patterns. Generally, it's either a stream of lows, with interchanging good/bad weather, or a high pressure system that blocks the path and keeps the weather nice for quite some time.

 

There are of course some differences between the different parts of the country, but even if just 1/3 of the country gets affected by good weather, that's a sizeable blow to the box office potential.

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, George Parr said:

 

Because the weather has a huge impact on the box office?

 

First, Germans love good weather. If the sun is shining, box office is dead, especially if it gets warm as well. Rain and cold are the time to go and watch movies, which is why the winter is the best time for both the box office and tv-ratings.

Second, Germany isn't the USA, from a weather standpoint it is a rather small area, a heatwave will likely affect the whole country or at the very least a large part of it. With Germany being in the midst of the westwind-drift, and all the mountain-chains in continental Europe going west-east and not north-south, we don't really have all that many big weather-patterns. Generally, it's either a stream of lows, with interchanging good/bad weather, or a high pressure system that blocks the path and keeps the weather nice for quite some time.

 

There are of course some differences between the different parts of the country, but even if just 1/3 of the country gets affected by good weather, that's a sizeable blow to the box office potential.

Yes, but I never hear it brought up for France or Spain or the UK.

[Heretic]

In the UK it is, we just don't mention it, but it we have an abnormally warm and sunny spell, the BO usually plummets.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Heretic said:

In the UK it is, we just don't mention it, but it we have an abnormally warm and sunny spell, the BO usually plummets.

Where I live, I look forward to overcast days. Fuck the sun.

 

But I've never thought about weather in terms of box office. Americans just like to go to the movies, no matter the weather. They go more per capita than any European nation.

[el sid]

@George Parr

I couldn't have said it any better ;).

 

 

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Where I live, I look forward to overcast days. Fuck the sun.

 

But I've never thought about weather in terms of box office. Americans just like to go to the movies, no matter the weather. They go more per capita than any European nation.

I read four times a year or even more, right?

In earlier years I was surprised too how often somebody mentioned the weather conditions but over time I got it.
Spain and France just have a longer summer. We here in Germany/Austria/Northern and Central Europe always don't know how many weeks the summer will stay. In some years three or even four good months can happen in Germany, but it also can be over in the middle of August and not start before June or July. So we use every weekend we can. Every café is crowded then and so on...
But that doesn't mean that a eagerly-awaited film isn't a big hit over the weeks. It will always be very successful (unless there is a football/soccer WM or EM). But it has an impact if people are unsure if they should go see a film or not.

 

At least The  Jungle Book is now presented the whole day in the biggest cinema-halls in mathäser and the cineplex cinema chain, but presales still leave much to be desired.

 

[cannastop]

22 minutes ago, el sid said:

@George Parr

I couldn't have said it any better ;).

 

 

I read four times a year or even more, right?

In earlier years I was surprised too how often somebody mentioned the weather conditions but over time I got it.
Spain and France just have a longer summer. We here in Germany/Austria/Northern and Central Europe always don't know how many weeks the summer will stay. In some years three or even four good months can happen in Germany, but it also can be over in the middle of August and not start before June or July. So we use every weekend we can. Every café is crowded then and so on...
But that doesn't mean that a eagerly-awaited film isn't a big hit over the weeks. It will always be very successful (unless there is a football/soccer WM or EM). But it has an impact if people are unsure if they should go see a film or not.

 

At least The  Jungle Book is now presented the whole day in the biggest cinema-halls in mathäser and the cineplex cinema chain, but presales still leave much to be desired.

 

Well, recently, it's just a bit less than 4 per capita, due to competition from the internet.

I think Australia is #1, though.

 

Speaking of the weather, where I live gets 2700 hours of sunshine per year, compared to 1625 hours of sunshine in a year in Berlin or 1662 in Paris.

Edited April 14, 2016 by cannastop

[IndustriousAngel]

After Thursday, it seems JB might not reach 500k ... while family stuff is always about the legs, it will need very good ones to reach 3mil that way. Definitely a bit disappointing.

[George Parr]

First trend form insidekino:

 

1. The Jungle Book 350-500k

2. How to be Single 160k (-23%)

3. Zoomania/Zootopia 125k (-14%)

4. The Huntsman & the Ice Queen 65k (-51%)

5. Batman vs Superman 60k (-53%)

 

edit: just saw that there was additonal info:

Hardcore 40k

The Lady in the Van 17.5k

 

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm

Edited April 15, 2016 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

BvS just doesn't hit a floor, keeps dropping day after day. And HH is a bit diappointing too, not that it was expected to be a hit but 40k from >200 theaters is plain bad. The only silver lining atm is Zootopia.

[Aristis]

I think TJB will land in the higher region of that forecasts. If it's as good as it is told audience will appreciate.

 

Probably it's a bit disappointing but as long as it hits 3M admissions (definitly doable even with 400k OW if it's good) then I will be OK. We could not expect that this movie will be as massive as the old one. I will call it a disaster if it don't hits 1,5M in the end.

Edited April 15, 2016 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

well, 1,5 is not possible, >2mil is already locked and 2,5 are looking 95% safe but 3mil might become difficult - but let's see how the weekend plays out.

[Aristis]

Deadline:

Germany opened Thursday to an estimated $300K, which is +78% over Cinderella and +25% vs Oz.

That sounds extremely low like 30k admissions or something like that...

[IndustriousAngel]

don't forget family tickets but that's a far cry from 500k admissions over the weekend, yes. Friday was <100k admissions, too, so atm we're headed rather for 350k than 500k it seems (of course, with rainy weather, Sat/Sun might pick up, so I#m still hopeful it might at least cross 400k)

[Omni]

My god, a letdown in the country that was supposed to boost its gross.

[George Parr]

Second trend (http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm ):

 

JB 375-575k

How to be Single 200k

Zoomania 150k

The Huntsman & the Ice Queen 80k

BvS 65k

 

Everything is up a bit