BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions		th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Rogue One	1.001.230		762	1.314	1.001.230	11.833.350	-	1
2	Sing	314.317		665	473	815.940	7.006.288	-18	2
3	Fantastic Beasts	156.856		608	258	2.772.631	27.936.131	-41	5
4	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	124.819		665	188	2.728.869	22.14.621	-21	7
5	Office Christmas Party	88.543		380	233	260.222	2.159.891	-27	2
6	Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten	53.879		709	76	499.837	3.093.963	-8	7
7	Die Vampirschwestern 3	47.534		515	92	143.844	935.917	-34	2
8	Arrival	40.604		390	104	508.272	4.237.242	-50	4
9	Paula - Mein Leben soll ein Fest sein	30.154		95	317	32.021	258.273	-	1
10	Die Weihnachtsgeschichte	27.179		297	92	74.992		+2	4
11	Florence Foster Jenkins	20.781		220	94	197.470	1.604.989	-31	4
12	Underworld 5	18.828		427	44	176.195	1.844.330	-58	3
13	Sully	17.611		320	55	167.128	1.383.664	-5	3
14	Görümce	16.846		58	290	64.226	568.557	-17	3
15	Trolls (FOX)	16.514		355	47	1.112.556	8.055.783	-46	9
16	Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt	15.838		516	31	99.239	614.371	-38	3
17	Shut In	12.504		103	121	25.065	174.887	-	1
18	Paterson (WTK)	8.236		129	64	120.100	923.462	-37	5
19	Toni Erdmann	7.122		57	125	752.093	6.626.777	+257	23
20	Schubert in Love	6.333		87	73	24.539	193.140	-42	2

 

Well, most people were hoping for something more, but at least Rogue One crossed the 1mil treshold for the opening weekend and seems good for 4mil total at least. Arrival as well as Fantastic Beasts got hurt by the new blockbuster while comedies held well - especially Willkommen bei den Hartmanns, now in ist 7th week and on ist way to blockbuster status! Family stuff was also strong, Sing only down 18% from last week's (admittedly soft) opening.

 

Next weekend: Christmas holidays are always strong, so there's a lot of new releases crammed into theaters which must lead to serious screen congestion, with Sing and Rogue One still very strong! Wide openers are: Moana, Assasin's Creed, Allied, and domestic heist comedy Vier gegen die Bank. Plus some smaller but still interesting stuff like Nocturnal Animals.

 

As 24th falls on a Saturday, we shouldn't expect good numbers opening-wise - all those releases will have to earn their money during the following holidays. It will be interesting to see if Moana can succeed as it did at home - with Sing's obviously great WOM and all the christmassy stuff in theaters, that's far from a given (also, Disney's marketing seemed a bit reluctant). Vier gegen die Bank is a wild card - with Til Schweiger and Matthias Schweighöfer on board, an opening >300k should be a safe bet, but there seems to be little buzz (hard to gauge from Austria where there's less love for both) and we've seen other wannabe-hits burnt during the holidays (Herbig's Buddy comes to mind). Allied will be no big hit but as the single thriller (Nocturnal Animals has less theaters), it has the market nearly to itself and should at least become a solid success.

[Aristis]

4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

As 24th falls on a Saturday, we shouldn't expect good numbers opening-wise - all those releases will have to earn their money during the following holidays. It will be interesting to see if Moana can succeed as it did at home - with Sing's obviously great WOM and all the christmassy stuff in theaters, that's far from a given (also, Disney's marketing seemed a bit reluctant). Vier gegen die Bank is a wild card - with Til Schweiger and Matthias Schweighöfer on board, an opening >300k should be a safe bet, but there seems to be little buzz (hard to gauge from Austria where there's less love for both) and we've seen other wannabe-hits burnt during the holidays (Herbig's Buddy comes to mind). Allied will be no big hit but as the single thriller (Nocturnal Animals has less theaters), it has the market nearly to itself and should at least become a solid success.

Do you know that Vier gegen die Bank starts on Sunday? One Day shouldn't be enough for 300k, should it?

 

And no movie is closer to 1M

 

89	1.003.228	767	1.308	10	Eclipse (CON)
90	1.001.659	740	1.354	01	Die Mumie kehrt zurück (UIP)
91	1.001.230	762	1.314	16	Rogue One (BV)
92	983.777	258	3.813	94	Der König der Löwen (FOX)

 

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord.htm

[IndustriousAngel]

oh, sorry, hadn't seen that! Yes, it's a Sunday start (in Austria too) ... strange, let's see how it plays out. As mentioned, all those releases depend on strong weekdays, not big openings.

[terrestrial]

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has edged out cousin Star Wars: The Force Awakensin its first Tuesday hold overseas — percentage-wise. With $16M yesterday, Disney/Lucasfilm’s standalone franchise spinoff saw a 1.3% increase in offshore markets versus its Monday ticket sales tally. Last year, on TFA’s first Tuesday, that film dipped by 1% from the Monday.

...

The UK, which has seen a big exchange rate swing since last year, continues to lead offshore play and rose to $28.2M after a $3.5M Tuesday (up from Monday’s $3.1M). Germany was also up over the two-day period ($1.4M v $1.2M) with a cume of $15M. Australia too rose ($1.5M v $1.3M) for a total at $13.7M.

France had the 2nd best day of all offshore markets with $2M (another jump from Monday) and is tied with Australia at $13.7M. Japan is the No. 5 market at $9.8M to date.

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-tuesday-international-box-office-1201874489/

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: RogueOne - 500k admissions (-50%, ok)

#2: Moana - 185k

#3: Sing - 165k (-45%)

#4: F.Beasts - 100k (-35%, great hold if true)

#5: WbdH - 75k (-40%)

 

Allied is rather disappointing with only 47,5k , Nocturnal Animals at 35k within expectations

 

As mentioned, the low numbers are to be expected due to 24th on a Saturday, but Moana's narrow lead againt Sing's 3rd weekend is not a good sign for Moana, while Sing seems to have great WOM.

Edited December 23, 2016 by IndustriousAngel

[Aristis]

24 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: RogueOne - 500k admissions (-50%, ok)

#2: Moana - 185k

#3: Sing - 165k (-45%)

#4: F.Beasts - 100k (-35%, great hold if true)

#5: WbdH - 75k (-40%)

 

Allied is rather disappointing with only 47,5k , Nocturnal Animals at 35k within expectations

 

As mentioned, the low numbers are to be expected due to 24th on a Saturday, but Moana's narrow lead againt Sing's 3rd weekend is not a good sign for Moana, while Sing seems to have great WOM.

Doesn't seem bad at all. SW with 1,87M after Sunday. Should have at least 1M more the Sunday after. Maybe it can even reach 3M, but we should wait if it can even hold the 500k this weekend.

 

Moana is at least higher than Sing for now, I heard rumors that it could land beneath that one. It's starting on an extremely bad weekend and should have a great multipler. But 2M do not seem good, should at least reach 1M though.

 

But for more Analysis I'll wait for numbers that are more certain.

[Aristis]

Thursday numbers from Blickpunkt Film

 

 

RO 150k (lc1,65M)

Sing 50k

Moana 40k

FB 30k (This or RO will reach 3M as the first Non-Animation-Movie of the year)

WbdH 25k

 

Edited December 23, 2016 by Aristis

[el sid]

I'm sorry, the Thursday estimates were not available yesterday (due to another Christmas-party) and today nothing worked.

With 40k admissions for Moana/Vaiana (which starts in 575 theaters and ok to very good reviews) and 50k for Sing (which had only 25k whole day last Friday but without school holidays in half of the states) it will become an interesting race.
Allied (300 theaters, mediocre to good reviews) had 11k admissions yesterday,
Nocturnal Animals 6.5k moviegoers (190, very good reviews).

 

IndustriousAngel already mentioned that no normal weekend is coming: In Germany church and handing out of presents traditionally takes place the 24th which means Christmas Eve is a Saturday, normally the strongest cinema-day of the week. And on Sunday many people visit relatives and friends. But OTOH there's no school or college/university on Monday and most employees have holidays too so that will cushion it partly. And of course the following weekdays will be much more crowded than usual.

[Giesi]

RO 500k - 50% drop, that's ok I guess with Christmas Eve being on a Saturday, around 1,87M after 11 days

Moana 185k - ouch, what went wrong? I guess the advertisement was lacking and this weekend isn't really a great period of time with the weird constellation

Sing 165k - almost 50% decline, animated movies are hurt by the Saturday 

FB 100k - 30% drop, one of the better ones

 

[George Parr]

I really don't know why Disney opted to start Moana/Vaiana during this time of the year. Sure, they had success with Frozen in that spot, but that is a winter-themed movie, Moana is the very opposite. Maybe some people wouldk like to escape the winter and get to a place where it is warmer, but for most people this movie simply doesn't fit into the current timeframe, especially with christmas around the corner.

 

This movie should have started in summer, not just in Germany but everywhere else as well. I mean, it's not like they evaded competition with the start happening where it happened, it got a decent amount of room in the USA, but in Germany, starting against a Star Wars movie and a recently started animation picture while offering something that doesn't fit into December at all, is just not a smart idea.

Edited December 23, 2016 by George Parr

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

I really don't know why Disney opted to start Moana/Vaiana during this time of the year. Sure, they had success with Frozen in that spot, but that is a winter-themed movie, Moana is the very opposite. Maybe some people wouldk like to escape the winter and get to a place where it is warmer, but for most people this movie simply doesn't fit into the current timeframe, especially with christmas around the corner.

This movie should have started in summer, not just in Germany but everywhere else as well. I mean, it's not like they evaded competition with the start happening where it happened, it got a decent amount of room in the USA, but in Germany, starting against a Star Wars movie and a recently started animation picture while offering something that doesn't fit into December at all, is just not a smart idea.

Maybe at the end of the winter, when we can't wait for it to be over, and start to be looking for summer again, but directly before Christmas, when the most wiish for a hite christmas still?

 

I too think there are regional differences, see US, plus there it was released a bit earlier

 

= I agree

[Giesi]

2. Trend:
 

Rogue One - A Star Wars Story (475T), Vaiana (200T), Sing (170T), Phantastische Tierwesen und wo sie zu finden sind (90T), Willkommen bei den Hartmanns (75T), Office Christmas Party (45T), Allied - Vertraute Fremde (45T), Nocturnal Animals (32,5T), Pettersson & Findus - Das schönste Weihnachten überhaupt (30T).

[IndustriousAngel]

Today was opening day for "Vier gegen die Bank", seem to run nicely, with today's numbers and holidays just starting we can expect > 1mil total admissions but hopefully 1,5mil. Moana was behind Sing in daily numbers but seems to catch up. Not that much of a feat since Sing is in its 3rd weekend but at least Moana doesn't crumble but seems to have a normal run, with holidays 1mil total seem a safe bet, a disappointment but no flop.

[chrisman0606]

For Christmas Eve and Day in Germany are cinemas closed or open, or just these two days have low box office money?

[George Parr]

Some smaller cinemas are closed the whole day on the 24th, the larger ones are open early on and probably (though I can't guarantee that) shut down by afternoon/evening. The 25th is mostly open again, though theaters may open later than usual, leading to a rather weak day as well. So it's a combination of theaters offering less shows and less people being interested in going to a movie.

 

Last year around you had an weak weekend because Thursday was basically useless (it always counts towards the weekends in Germany, because it's the day movies usually open), Friday still weak, with Saturday improving and Sunday being the best day. Star Wars actually had more admissions from Monday to Wednesday after the weekend than on the four days of the weekend itself.

 

This time around Rogue One had around 300k on Thursday+Friday and will end the weekend with (probably) less than 500k. So this time around Thu and Fri were good, Saturday basically meaningless, with Sunday being okay.

Edited December 25, 2016 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

Weekend is over and preeliminary numbers are as follows:

#1: RogueOne - 450k admissions (-55%)

#2: Sing - 165k (-45%)

#3: Moana - 160k (a bit over 200 with previews) - ugh

#4: F.Beasts - 95k (-40%, good hold)

#5: WbdH - 80k (-35%, great hold)

 

"Vier gegen die Bank" made 60k with its Sunday opening, good sign for days to come!

[IndustriousAngel]

btw, in Austria, R1 dropped harder than in Germany while family stuff had better holds ... Moana opened softer than Sing's 3rd weekend, as in Germany.

[terrestrial]

Quote

Kinocharts Deutschland: Die Weihnachtsdelle

 "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"  ist weiterhin klare Nummer eins mit knapp 450.000 Besuchern und 5,2 Mio. Euro Umsatz. In dieser ungewöhnlichen Feiertagskombination war jemals nur ein Film besser, "Der König der Löwen"  im Jahr 1994, der mit Weihnachten am Samstag 550.000 Besucher holte. Gesamt liegt "Rogue One" bereits bei 1,8 Mio. Zuschauern.

 

... the Christmas dent

earned this weekend 5.2m Euros (450k admissions), 2nd best for this kind of workday-holiday combination, best was then Lion King

SW R1 1.8m admissions total for now

 

Quote

... "Vaiana" (Moana)  160.000 admissions 1.4 Mio. Euro in 557 theatres,

 "Sing" 165.000 adm. = 1,3 Mio. Euro , reached as 29. Film in 2016 the one-Mio.-adm. mark

FB 95.000 admissions 900.000 Euro total nearly 3 Mio. admissions = highestes adm of 2016

local "Willkommen bei den Hartmanns" 80.000 adm 630.000 Euro best local film of 2016 2,9 Mio. admissions

http://www.mediabiz.de/film/news/kinocharts-deutschland-die-weihnachtsdelle/414135

 

not sure how far I can quote, it lists in total the top 20

Edited December 26, 2016 by terrestrial

[keysersoze123]

So where is R1 headed towards? 4m or 5m?

[Giesi]

InsideKino ‏@MarkGInsideKino

D: Heute überschreitet PHANTASTISCHE TIERWESEN als erster nicht-animierter Film des Jahres die Blockbuster-Marke von 3 Mio. Besuchern...

 

Today, FB exceeds the 3M admission mark as the first non-animated movie in 2016!