BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

3D and 3D HFR are the same; €10,50 with prepaid cards on Sat + Sun, about 13,00 without. Weekdays are cheaper but atm it looks like The Hobbit is a weekend film. Maybe the reviews claiming it to be soooo long led people to believe this is a 5-hour-monster.

[lab276]

[Fullbuster]

Nr. Besucher Wochenende Kinos Schnitt Besucher bis Sonntag Woche Titel (Studio) % zur Vorwoche Mögliches Endergebnis in Tsd. RT % IMDB-Note (1-10) 1 1.084.562 877 1.237 1.238.266 1 Der Hobbit (WB) --- 6.000 65 8,6 2 180.764 659 274 3.401.611 4 Breaking Dawn II (CON -40 3.750 48 5,9 3 144.065 619 233 7.038.685 7 Skyfall (COL) -32 7.400 92 8,0 4 139.322 524 266 382.875 2 Ralph reicht's (BV) -23 1.000 87 8,2 5 93.503 579 161 397.874 3 Die Hüter des Lichts (PAR) -6 750 73 7,5 6 47.235 380 124 948.581 5 Cloud Atlas (X) -41 1.000 63 8,2 7 44.932 170 264 119.712 2 Anna Karenina (U) -4 250 62 7,1 8 31.989 451 71 456.261 5 Das Geheimnis der Feenflügel (BV) -13 550 67 6,4 9 28.529 80 356 179.704 3 Evim Sensin (AFM) -42 200 - 4,0 10 25.892 432 60 345.825 7 Niko 2 (UNI) +2 400 - 5,2 11 24.867 266 93 163.319 3 Silent Hill 2 (CON) -43 200 6 6,0 12 22.143 160 138 97.831 2 7 Psychos (DCM) -36 140 81 7,8 13 15.715 250 63 752.698 6 Das Schwergewicht (COL) -51 775 38 6,3 14 9.349 279 34 1.131.388 8 Hotel Transsilvanien (COL) -43 1.175 43 7,2 15 9.047 151 60 3.890.355 11 Madagascar 3 (PAR) -34 3.950 76 7,0 16 8.799 91 97 95.760 4 Sinister (WBU) -35 125 62 6,9 17 6.645 96 69 80.756 3 Killing Them Softly (WBU) -51 90 76 7,0 18 6.537 113 58 56.359 3 Anleitung zum Unglücklichsein (SC) -41 75 - 4,8 19 6.525 66 99 42.100 3 In ihrem Haus (CON) -19 60 - 7,4 20 6.085 55 111 155.996 7 Oh Boy (X) -0 200 - 7,8

Big drop for TH

[Elessar]

What do you mean, big drop? Compared to LOTR? We knew that since the first projections.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Elessar

[Fullbuster]

What do you mean, big drop? Compared to LOTR? We knew that since the first projections.

Yes. And no, many here expected LOTR numbers for The Hobbit, and you know it.

[Elessar]

Maybe i wasn't clear.Since the first projections came in around thursday, based on presales (and OD), we knew it's gonna do a lot less than LOTR.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany + Austria Top 13 Dec 13-16

TW	LW	Movie	Studio	Weekend	Change	Gross	Week
1	N	The Hobbit 1	WB	$ 16.620.997	-	19.181.911	1
2	1	Breaking Dawn 2	Concorde/Const.	$ 2.054.941	-40,7	38.582.646	4
3	2	Skyfall	Sony	$ 1.756.018	-40,3	85.520.347	7
4	3	Wreck-it Ralph	Disney	$ 1.576.794	-27,3	4.437.094	2
5	4	Rise of the Guardians	UPI/PPI	$ 997.915	-14,2	4.590.814	3
6	5	Cloud Atlas	WB / X-V.	$ 583.374	-42,6	11.452.623	5
7	7	Anna Karenina	UPI	$ 535.430	-9,4	1.429.157	2
8	6	Silent Hill: Revelation	Concorde/Const.	$ 384.831	-44,4	2.525.612	3
9	8	Evim Sensin	AF-Media	$ 327.296	-44,6	2.032.219	3
10	11	Tinker Bell - SotW	Disney	$ 272.399	-24,4	4.364.146	5
11	9	7 Psychopaths	DCM/Filmladen	$ 260.473	-39,5	1.025.236	2
12	12	Niko 2	Univ./Const.	$ 214.526	+6,7	3.116.994	7
13	10	Here Comes the Boom	Sony	$ 191.389	-50,2	8.242.949	6

A weaker-than-expected opening for The Hobbit; of course it's still dominating the market; most other evening pictures dropped >40%, with the notable exception of Anna Karenina, which had a slight expansion - excellent hold all the same. Among children's films, Disney's products again dropped hardest.

This weekend, "The Hobbit 1" will cling to the top spot; the weekend before Christmas often sees hard drops, being a busy shopping time. But the softer opening might lead to a good hold here, maybe less than 30%, because demand is definitely still there and presales look healthy. For children's films the weekend should be better, parents like to "park" the kids there while shopping, but there are 2 new ones opening ("Sammys Abenteuer 2", a belgian CGI-3D kids film, and "Huck Finn", a German Mark Twain adaption) so it will be a hard time for holdovers.

Non-children openers include: "Pitch Perfect", "End of Watch", and a film I personally am looking forward to very much: "Beasts of the Southern Wild" (will be playing mostly in arthouse theaters). A complete wildcard is German comedy "Jesus liebt mich"; it has strong presale numbers plus some religious groups are making a bit of a ruckus trying to keep it out of theaters so it's got cheap promotion too - maybe it can enter the Top5 for the weekend, really hard to predict.

[lab276]

The thing about next week is that the weekend sales might be kinda week, but that's balanced out by strong weekdays. Also, whatever The Hobbit makes next week will be roughly what it makes the week after that, so if it sells for example 1m tickets, it will do so twice over.

[IndustriousAngel]

Yep, that's what I'm thinking too, compare the two weekends for 2007:http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/germany/?yr=2007&p=.htmDec. 20-23 had drops in the 30-40%-range (plus some openers, so went up 27% from previous weekend in total), but the long Dec. 26-30 weekend saw actual increases for most everything despite a wide opening. And the weekend after New Year had very soft drops (-30%).So, if Hobbit1 can manage 12mil US$ this weekend (about -30%) then it might do 15mil the long weekend after (or even more) and again more than 10mil for the 1st 2013 weekend. That, plus strong weekdays, might put it at about 65mil US$ after Jan 6th. This would put it at about TwoTowers level, which openend a weekend later and reached 65mil on Jan 15th.edit: Just saw that MarkG. from insidekino.de predicts more than 1mil Hobbit admissions for this weekend which would be a mindbogglingly good hold ...

Edited December 19, 2012 by IndustriousAngel

[IndustriousAngel]

Friday trend for Germany:H1: 1.050k (after 1.085k last week nearly flat - )Pitch Perfect: 250kJesus liebt mich: 140k (really a surprise her, at least for me, but the comedy market is hungry atm)BD2: 125kSF: 110kWiR: 85kGood holds from SF and BD2 and WiR, but The Hobbit with a no-drop is really good; WOM seems to be excellent.

[lab276]

[Olive]

Some Xmas surprise.

[IndustriousAngel]

Yep, crazy. I was expecting a drop similar to the other films ... as I see it, either this has fantastic WOM or people refrained from buying "cheap" seats and rather postponed their Hobbit shows. I've already mentioned that "The Hobbit" shows very strange behaviour for a franchise-blockbuster - nearly no rush effect, no sellouts, but very stable weekend and evening numbers. The very first sellouts here were Sat evening (after a Wed opening).

Now, the really crazy thing about this hold is: An increase for the weekend after is nearly locked - 26th is a bank holiday, and though 27th and 28th would be usual workdays, in fact nearly everyone has those days off. So, a 5-day-weekend where I expect about a 20% increase. The weekdays and weekend after New Year's Day are very strong too, I expect no more than a 30% drop. So, more than 5mil admissions in the bank after the holiday weekends - better than it looked after last weekend. Still a long way from LotR-numbers: Fellowship was the most successful one with 11,8mil admissions, and RotK the least successfull with 10,4mil.

Fellowship was at 7,4mil admissions after the holiday weekends, so it made 4.4mil after that - we can't expect similar legs from H1, especially since it had one whole week more to burn demand. RotK had the shortest legs, it was at 8,2mil after those weekends and went on to collect an additional 2,2mil - even that seems a bit much for H1, but 7mil admissions total are very much in play imho.

Edited December 21, 2012 by IndustriousAngel

[Poseidon]

Jesus liebt mich: 140k (really a surprise her, at least for me, but the comedy market is hungry atm)

Surprise? I actually thought it would open bigger. But i still think it can do 1m admissions.The real surprise this weekend is Pitch Perfect, by a mile!

[lab276]

2nd Trend,

Der Hobbit - Eine unerwartete Reise (1,05 Mio.), Pitch Perfect (250T), Jesus liebt mich (140T), Breaking Dawn - Biss zum Ende der Nacht Teil 2 (125T), Skyfall (115T), Ralph reicht's (90T)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Germany is the only market where Hobbit is not disappointing.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany is the only market where Hobbit is not disappointing.

The opening was much lower than expected - everybody expected lower admissions than LotR, but not that low (barely 1,1mil) - so in a way the 2nd weekend is making up for the 1st one. But let's not forget that H1 opened 1 week earlier than the other LotR-films, if it's a disappointment or not can only be said after Jan 6th.

[IndustriousAngel]

Sunday trend Germany:H1 1.000kPP 225kJLM 130kSF 130kBD2 115kWiR 95k, might reach 100k with a strong Sunday - weather's rainy, good for theaters

[Fake]

I like that new Skyfall number....TH1 went down a bit, but still great.

[IndustriousAngel]

What I don't understand: Skyfall and Hobbit nearly flat, and WiR crumbles?! Usually it's the other way round and kid's films get a push that weekend while parents go shopping. Really strange weekend ... but good base for next weekend where everything should go up a bit!