brazil Brazil Box Office Thread

[pepsa]

20 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

 

Mexico is not crippled by such a terrible ER that's the thing

Nah the thing is Mexico is frontloaded, Mexico was beating Brazil too for the first 2-3 weeks and then fell behind. The same will happen now.

I mean now it's 8.2m behind. This is the last weekend that Mexico will be bigger than Brazil. I expect Brazil to be at $59m USD after this weekend and Mexico at $66m so Brazil might actualy start to close in on Mexico starting this weekend.

 

[Seto Kaiba]

 

"#VingadoresUltimato #VingadoresEndgame distributed by @DisneyStudiosBR passed the mark of R$160.2 million at the box office and 9 million viewers. It is already the most watched film in theaters in 2019 in Brazil."

Edited May 2, 2019 by Seto Kaiba

[Legion Again]

IW first week R$112 or so, (according to Mojo, so not fully trusting).     

 

2.12 multi.    

 

If tomorrow is just under R$10, first week R$170, same legs would be over R$360     

 

We’ll see how the 2nd weekend goes before getting too crazy, but 300 looks toast to me.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

IW first week R$112 or so, (according to Mojo, so not fully trusting).     

 

2.12 multi.    

 

If tomorrow is just under R$10, first week R$170, same legs would be over R$360     

 

We’ll see how the 2nd weekend goes before getting too crazy, but 300 looks toast to me.

At ER 8 years ago, that's almost $200mn.

[Beelzebub]

$3.8M Thursday! 

 

 

Bye bye Mexico!

 

[pepsa]

$3.8m today = R$15m

Big days WoM must be good, I will do a deep dive in to the numbers later tonight. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

The Empire...ahem Brazil Strikes Back

[Fullbuster]

Hasta la Vista México!

[pepsa]

Okay, 'tonight' became a bit later than I expected it to, went through IW's numbers gather as many as I could. (In 40 min).

I will just compare IW and EG seeing what the trajectory is looking like and doing some predictions based on it.

 

So for the comparison I will only use USD not R$ because this would make my life hard 😛 

Also I do want to note that IW ER was around 3.57 to 1 average EG atm is 3.93 to 1 (IW was 3.5 for it OW) 10% diff in ER alone.

 

Days	IW	EG
OD	$4,8m	$7,0m
Fri-Sun	$14,3m	$20m/$19m	OW
Monday	$4,7m	$3,2m/$4.2m
Tuesday	$4,7m	$3,9m
Wednesday	$3,3m	$6,4m
Thursday	$1,7m	$3,8m
Fri-Sun	$10,8m	?	WE 2
Monday	$1,6m	?
Tuesday	$1,5m	?
Wednesday	$1,4m	?
Thursday	$1,0m	?
Fri-Sun	$6,8m	?	WE 3
Day before Holiday
Holiday

 

So first off OD to OW ratio from IW was 25.13% and EG's ratio was 25.93%. (26.92% with Daily numbers) So EG was more frontloaded OW wise.

That said I do want to note that the $3.2m Monday is calculated based onthe 105.9m LC number we got on Monday other wise EG monday would be $4.2m and it's OW $26m and 102m lc but I will take this in to account.

 

Thursday is down -64.6% for IW whilst it's only down -45.7% for EG. This is incredibly big, I can't tell you how huge this but it's insane!

IW FSS was 6.35 times it's Thursday, EG won't follow this, it can't because it would mean $24.1m ($4.1m / $5.1m bigger than it's OW FSS). So we can't expect this. If we look at IW's FSS to FSS drop it was - 24.48%, if we use this on EG we get $15.1m / $14.35m. This would mean 3.78 to 4 times it's thursday. 

 

Even thought it might sound insane 3.78 times Thursday seems a bit low, so using the 4.2 - 4.3 times Thursday rate would give us $16m - $16.35m USD. Now useing the LOW OW number of $19m this would mean a 13.9% - 15.8% drop from OW FSS. This would be insane but sertainly doable. It's possible to do a 4.5x thursday (17.1m down 10%) but don't count on it happening same as a $15.1m ( down 20.5%) could happen but I think it goes higher. 

 

Now counting the $16.35m + $3.8m we get $20.15m Thursday to Sun that woul be down 25.4% from OW. IW was down 34.55% from it OW.

Don't get me wrong $15.1m could happen and would still be great. IW did 2.32 times it OW after the second weekend. EG is looking to do anywere between 2.2 - 2.25 (useing the high OW) or 2.28 - 2.33 times OW by Sunday. I think the later is more likely and a  $4.2m monday seems more logical than a $3.2m because other wise Thursday went up from monday. 

Also note that the close you get to a 0% drop the more 1% more less counts. To illustrate this I will give you this:

 

This is % drop compared to the Multi added on top of the starting numbers, after 6 weeks of these drops (starting with 1m).

65% =>  0.532 => TOT 1.532m
60% =>  0.654
55% =>  0.793
50% =>  0.953
45% =>  1.138
40% =>  1.352
35% =>  1.601 
30% =>  1.891
25% =>  2.229 
20% =>  2.624
15% =>  3.086 => TOT 4.086m

 

I will end by saying EG is doing crazy good buisness and the fact that it might hold (likely) better than IW comming of this huge OW is extremely good. My guess for EG's FFS is $16m (down15.8%) for a 60.2m cume and monday is $2.4m - $2.5m USD. 

Also this would mean it would be at R$234m so only R$1m below IW total run, on Monday EG will 100% pass IW!!!

 

Edited May 3, 2019 by pepsa

[pepsa]

Also a cool fact if EG FSS stays over $15.3m, EG's Second Thu - Sun will be the second highest Thu-Sun frame ever behind only EG's OW, above IW's OW Thursday - Sun. EG is going totaly crazy in Brazil. 

 

PS hope my long post wasn't to borring!

Edited May 3, 2019 by pepsa

[Legion Again]

If that drop really happens I will start dreaming of $100. Exciting weekend ahead.

[VanillaSkies]

10 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Okay, 'tonight' became a bit later than I expected it to, went through IW's numbers gather as many as I could. (In 40 min).

I will just compare IW and EG seeing what the trajectory is looking like and doing some predictions based on it.

 

So for the comparison I will only use USD not R$ because this would make my life hard 😛 

Also I do want to note that IW ER was around 3.57 to 1 average EG atm is 3.93 to 1 (IW was 3.5 for it OW) 10% diff in ER alone.

 

Days	IW	EG
OD	$4,8m	$7,0m
Fri-Sun	$14,3m	$20m/$19m	OW
Monday	$4,7m	$3,2m/$4.2m
Tuesday	$4,7m	$3,9m
Wednesday	$3,3m	$6,4m
Thursday	$1,7m	$3,8m
Fri-Sun	$10,8m	?	WE 2
Monday	$1,6m	?
Tuesday	$1,5m	?
Wednesday	$1,4m	?
Thursday	$1,0m	?
Fri-Sun	$6,8m	?	WE 3
Day before Holiday
Holiday

 

So first off OD to OW ratio from IW was 25.13% and EG's ratio was 25.93%. (26.92% with Daily numbers) So EG was more frontloaded OW wise.

That said I do want to note that the $3.2m Monday is calculated based onthe 105.9m LC number we got on Monday other wise EG monday would be $4.2m and it's OW $26m and 102m lc but I will take this in to account.

 

Thursday is down -64.6% for IW whilst it's only down -45.7% for EG. This is incredibly big, I can't tell you how huge this but it's insane!

IW FSS was 6.35 times it's Thursday, EG won't follow this, it can't because it would mean $24.1m ($4.1m / $5.1m bigger than it's OW FSS). So we can't expect this. If we look at IW's FSS to FSS drop it was - 24.48%, if we use this on EG we get $15.1m / $14.35m. This would mean 3.78 to 4 times it's thursday. 

 

Even thought it might sound insane 3.78 times Thursday seems a bit low, so using the 4.2 - 4.3 times Thursday rate would give us $16m - $16.35m USD. Now useing the LOW OW number of $19m this would mean a 13.9% - 15.8% drop from OW FSS. This would be insane but sertainly doable. It's possible to do a 4.5x thursday (17.1m down 10%) but don't count on it happening same as a $15.1m ( down 20.5%) could happen but I think it goes higher. 

 

Now counting the $16.35m + $3.8m we get $20.15m Thursday to Sun that woul be down 25.4% from OW. IW was down 34.55% from it OW.

Don't get me wrong $15.1m could happen and would still be great. IW did 2.32 times it OW after the second weekend. EG is looking to do anywere between 2.2 - 2.25 (useing the high OW) or 2.28 - 2.33 times OW by Sunday. I think the later is more likely and a  $4.2m monday seems more logical than a $3.2m because other wise Thursday went up from monday. 

Also note that the close you get to a 0% drop the more 1% more less counts. To illustrate this I will give you this:

 

This is % drop compared to the Multi added on top of the starting numbers, after 6 weeks of these drops (starting with 1m).

65% =>  0.532 => TOT 1.532m
60% =>  0.654
55% =>  0.793
50% =>  0.953
45% =>  1.138
40% =>  1.352
35% =>  1.601 
30% =>  1.891
25% =>  2.229 
20% =>  2.624
15% =>  3.086 => TOT 4.086m

 

I will end by saying EG is doing crazy good buisness and the fact that it might hold (likely) better than IW comming of this huge OW is extremely good. My guess for EG's FFS is $16m (down15.8%) for a 60.2m cume and monday is $2.4m - $2.5m USD. 

Also this would mean it would be at R$234m so only R$1m below IW total run, on Monday EG will 100% pass IW!!!

 

That's a crazy hold! 

With a 60 million total after the weekend, what are the chances that it continues to hold quite well and hit 100 million overall total?

[Sam]

I expected no less from Brazil. After all, the country is full of diehards MCU fans like @Goffe

[pepsa]

Just now, VanillaSkies said:

That's a crazy hold! 

With a 60 million total after the weekend, what are the chances that it continues to hold quite well and hit 100 million overall total?

That hold is my guess/projection for FSS so not reality yet. But if it happens, it coul go high. To know it's chance we need to know how big Pika will be and how much screens EG will lose on Thursday so it's verry important for EG to have a great second weekend and weekday to be big if this happens it will hold a lot of screens than a 40% drop (Thur to Sun, using my 19.8m projected Thurs to Sun) would give $11.9m + (6.6m Mon - Wed) total up to $78.7m.

 

I am using a 40% because it has decent competition (IW didn't have decent competition on its 3rd weekend). EG does have less competition on it's 4th weekend. So in this senario it would have had a $18.5m Mon to Sun next week and it would need 40% drops week to week for 3 more weeks. This would give an extra $21.7m, total $100.4m This would be with ER holding to around 3.93 (it could get worse) so it could have a bit worse drops and still get there but after 6th weekend drops will get very harsh. 

[Fullbuster]

I didn't have as much time as I wanted so lately so I couldn't do much to update it, I didn't even see the movie yet (I wanted to watch ito n Tuesday but postponed to Sunday and then something unexpected will prevent me from doing so again)...so I appreciate to have you guys updating and debating, that's nice to see this thread alive and well

 

I'll do my best to bring you lists this weekend

[cdsacken]

On 5/2/2019 at 4:59 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

At ER 8 years ago, that's almost $200mn.

Jesus.

[Fullbuster]

 

Speculation, but still

 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Speculation, but still

 

Damn. You follow 30k accounts. I wonder how your timeline even look like.

[Fullbuster]

22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Damn. You follow 30k accounts. I wonder how your timeline even look like.

 

It looks like hell, I stopped reading it a long time ago xD

I like to follow back  (decent) people following me but there's a price to pay lol

Edited May 4, 2019 by Fullbuster

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

It looks like hell, I stopped reading it a long time ago xD

I like to follow back  (decent) people following me but there's a price to pay lol

In one refresh there must be atleast 100 new tweets. I follow some 20 accounts and in the morning when I wake up, I usually skip most of the tweets