NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

Elvis will make more than 250M, it has great legs everywhere, for all august it will still make good weekly updates.

On a budget of 85M is a a solid success, I mean it would have been even before the pandemic/streaming era. 

 

 

Moulin Rouge made 180M on a 50M budget. Gatsby 350 M on a talked budget of 110-120M. 

If they all were flop why is he still making these high budget projects?. 

 

 

 

 

It's not like a movie is either a flop or a success, there is a grey zone where something simply performs rather well/rather poorly when compared to the studios expectations.

I don't think execs at Warner Bros were aiming at just 250 M when they greenlit Elvis and gave it a 85 M budget, they probably hoped to reach Bohemian Rapsody's height (910 M) or at least earn HALF of it, which would have put Elvis at 450 M.

 

Did it recoup its budget? Pheraps, but we would need to know ho much of it goes to the Elvis foundation, how much to the international distributors and how much in P&A. 

 

Luhrmann is a reliable director (he too has his flops, like Australia) so that's why they give him money to work with, because he rarely gives them a loss. 

 

Now what I don't agree with in the slightest is that it would be considered a success in the pre-pandemic era, given that Rocketman had a way better budget/WW gross ratio  (40 to 190, almost 5x compared with 85 to -at best - 250, which is almost 3x) and still wasn't considered a success but rather a decent showing.

 

Same goes for Nope, everyone in this board will sing its praise like it saved the box office, but a projected 200 M WW gross on a 68 M budget is not a great deal for a Studio that will likely have spent money and time on a project to have a net gain of about ZERO.

 

As for Thor, that too is certainly under Disney/Marvel expectations and its bloated budget shouldn't take the movie to a mere 700 M WW Tally... it's crystal clear that the goal was to reach 1B, which should be achieved when you put in a 250 M budget. Is it a Flop? Hell no, but it is a disappointement nonetheless.

Edited July 23, 2022 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[BlaineGabbert]

4 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

If Nope follows the same Sat-Sun holds as Black Phone it comes out to 45.04m and thats a film you'd expect to be a little less frontloaded cause Derrickson doesn't have the draw of Peele so 44.5 is quite reasonable imo

 

Yeah but with Peele's draw wouldn't you expect a little higher hold than Black Phone?

 

https://deadline.com/2022/06/elvis-3-5m-black-phone-3m-in-previews-as-top-gun-maverick-soars-to-half-billion-stateside-today-box-office-1235051418/

 

Deadline predicted 15-20 on Friday and it went for 23.

Edited July 23, 2022 by BlaineGabbert

[BruiseCruise]

5 minutes ago, BlaineGabbert said:

 

Yeah but with Peele's draw wouldn't you expect a little higher hold than Black Phone?

 

https://deadline.com/2022/06/elvis-3-5m-black-phone-3m-in-previews-as-top-gun-maverick-soars-to-half-billion-stateside-today-box-office-1235051418/

 

Deadline predicted 15-20 on Friday and it went for 23.

Its quite possible, usually early saturday estimates are a bit conservative but nothing too far off, i could definitely see Nope pulling 47-48m but if early WOM is mixedish then maybe it doesn't hold quite as well either

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah i'm sure Warner is very disappointed that they invested a lot in a movie that appeals the most for older people (one of the most hard to get back on theaters since pandemic) and still they will gross 3x more than they spend on production, very meh indeed...

Edited July 23, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, BlaineGabbert said:

Yeah but with Peele's draw wouldn't you expect a little higher hold than Black Phone?

 

No, I would expect it to be more front loaded because it's a director driven film. 

Anyway, I'm taking the O/U @ 6 days until the mod team discovers who this alt account belongs to. 

 

[BlaineGabbert]

6 minutes ago, Ecks Ecks Are said:

 

No, I would expect it to be more front loaded because it's a director driven film. 

Anyway, I'm taking the O/U @ 6 days until the mod team discovers who this alt account belongs to. 

 

Huh? I've never been a user here before.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah i'm sure Warner is very disappointed that they invested a lot in a movie that appeals the most for older people (one of the most hard to get back on theaters since pandemic) and still they will gross 3x more than they spend on production, very meh indeed...

 

Money is money. Given the circumstances (covid, etc,), they are probably ok with making the production budget money back, but they certainly wouldn't have hoped for a mere 250 M gross when they gave the movie a 85 M budget years ago, Just like Universal is probably regretting having given 68 M to Peele for Nope.

 

Almost every movie that is coming out this year has pre-pandemic budget but is facing a post-pandemic market, which means that the odds of succeeding in GAINING net money are pretty low. Now the studios will be happy with damage control and not loosing way too much (like TENET did), but this doesn't mean that these movies are succesful as in profitable, because they aren't.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

Money is money. Given the circumstances (covid, etc,), they are probably ok with making the production budget money back, but they certainly wouldn't have hoped for a mere 250 M gross when they gave the movie a 85 M budget years ago, Just like Universal is probably regretting having given 68 M to Peele for Nope.

 

Almost every movie that is coming out this year has pre-pandemic budget but is facing a post-pandemic market, which means that the odds of succeeding in GAINING net money are pretty low. Now the studios will be happy with damage control and not loosing way too much (like TENET did), but this doesn't mean that these movies are succesful as in profitable, because they aren't.

Or people just should stop thinking +600M is needed to be succesful. 

 

Around 250M for Nope is nearly 4x the budget, how anyone can regret? Lol

[Eric Burnett]

20 minutes ago, Ecks Ecks Are said:

 

No, I would expect it to be more front loaded because it's a director driven film. 

Anyway, I'm taking the O/U @ 6 days until the mod team discovers who this alt account belongs to. 

 

Looked into it, and there is no evidence that BlaineGabbert is an alt account. Please do not do this again.

[ThomasNicole]

This video explain perfectly why studios should keep investing in different, original movies. 

 

When they're succesful like Nope, even better, a proof that there's an audience that want something different than another SH movie. 

 

Yeah maybe it's not a billion dollar audience, but these movies aren't a quarter billion production either so it's fine.

 

 

 

 

[Ronin46]

So Elvis and Nope are a disappointment box office wise and studios regret greenlighting them? 

 

Jesus Christ.

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Looked into it, and there is no evidence that BlaineGabbert is an alt account. Please do not do this again.

Just a joke. I think the history of this site allows for some leeway on that.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, BlaineGabbert said:

How can Deadline predict 44.5 mil opening when it doesn't know the walk up numbers? Its saying that it'll make only 25 mil sat and sun?

It will be near better case it it comes $44.5M.

 

Read it as FRI did 13.14 and they are anticipating 25M in next 2 days. The Black Phone did 13.39M on SAT & SUN after 7.25M FRI. Same here would mean 24.3M for 43.8M.

Edited July 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Burnett]

As an aside, I'm very much annoyed with how box office grosses are and lament about how only "nostalgic toy commercials" are performing well. But like I don't think any WB or Uni execs will be crying themselves to sleep over Elvis nor Nope's numbers. They aren't life-changing, but both are likely to be profitable and well above their budgets just on theatrical. When we include VOD and TV airings and all that fun stuff, they'll be golden and will likely ensure Baz and Jordan will get other big projects. At most, I could maybe see a lower-budget effort from them, but they've thrived in lower costs before and have made stuff that's arguably more cinematic than the 250M budget behemoths. I know some will cry foul at "lowered expectations", but I think it's good to have perspective with all this.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

27 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

So Elvis and Nope are a disappointment box office wise and studios regret greenlighting them? 

 

Jesus Christ.

No one said that. The Studios will likely regret having given them a large budget before the pandemic hit, thinking they could make a profit out of it. This doesn't mean that they aren't happy that they actually made them (in Elvis's case, it might also bring big awards to the Studio, which is always good)or that there won't be another Musical biopic (infact, Madonna's is expected to start production soon) nor that Peele won't ever get to make another film with Universal, but the studios will certainly give these type of projects way smaller budgets in the future. Likewise, The Northman is a bomb but I'm pretty sure Eggers will get other movies financed, he just won't ever see 70 M again.

Edited July 23, 2022 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[charlie Jatinder]

How can anyone pretend that nearly 140M with actually good holds isn't good enough for Elvis?

 

And ffs if Nope had opened even 30M+, that would still be pretty impressive. Here it is opening nearly 50M. US was coming off may be Best Horror movie in recent times and with actually solid trailers. Nope is supposed to come down from that.

 

I don't think there are many directors that can open a movie to nearly $50M with just their name. Probably Nolan and Cameron are only ones other than Peele.

Edited July 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

No one said that. The Studios will likely regret having given them a large budget before the pandemic hit, thinking they could make a profit out of it. This doesn't mean that they aren't happy that they actually made them (in Elvis's case, it might also bring big awards to the Studio, which is always good)or that there won't be another Musical biopic (infact, Maddona's is expected to start production soon) nor that Peele won't ever get to make another film with Universal, but the studios will certainly give these type of projects way smaller budgets in the future. Likewise, The Northman is a bomb but I'm pretty sure Eggers will get other movies financed, he just won't ever see 70 M again.

 

Rubbish. Studios will be clambering all over themselves to get Peele if they can at anything under 100M budget. Baz will get a good budget again when he makes another movie in 19 years.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Ronin46

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

5 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Rubbish. Studios will be clambering all over themselves to get Peele if they can at anything under 100M budget. Baz will get a good budget again when he makes another movie in 19 years.

I mean... even Quentin Tarantino is having financing problems lately (he said so himself in an italian tv interview this year), and his movies earn very well, especially in the international markets. Why would anyone give anything close to100 M to Peele when his returns are diminishing despite the inflated budgets, and his movies have no international appeal? He is a good investment with a 20-40 M budget, which is what I'm ready to bet he will get from now on. As for Baz, who knows? 85 M dollars for Elvis is still way less than what he was given for "Great Gatsby"; what he gets next will strongly depend on the project itself, IMHO. 

[wildphantom]

If studios followed the ‘every movie in a director’s early career has to make more than the last one or we cut their budgets’ rule - boy would we have missed out on some of our favourite movies of all time, let alone some of the biggest. 
 

Nope is doing just fine, and Peele will still be able to command whatever he needs to make his next movie. 
 

 

[M37]

When discussing budgets and returns, keep in mind that most of what is showing now was put into production before the whole global pandemic thing - and the movie-going audience has shrunk as a result. Now some of that diminishment is offset by higher ticket prices … but not all of it 

 

So did the respective studios have a higher total gross figure in mind when these films started production? Probably. But given the overall context, and the string of true flops over the past year, both Nope and Elvis are absolutely successful releases