NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[CJohn]

Thor is not even doing 20M and it will be below Minions for the weekend. What a shitshow of a run.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Thor is not even doing 20M and it will be below Minions for the weekend. What a shitshow of a run.

Below minions seems unlikely, and 20 could easily go either way. Below minions next wknd presumably.

[CoolioD1]

8 hours ago, Nikostar said:

B Cinema score. Same as Candyman and Us. 

Jordan 🅱️eele

Edited July 23, 2022 by CoolioD1

[TigerPaw]

26 minutes ago, Lestranger said:

That B CinemaScore is definitely a problem for legs. At most, it will probably do 2.5x this weekend. Best case now would be 125m I think, but I am leaning more towards 110m.

The question now is that - is this film perceived as a horror film?

 

Because a B cinemascore for a horror film is actually very good.

[The Dark Alfred]

If it gets to 120-130m that's terrific. I don't think the studio cares how it gets there when it comes to original films. Having a big OW and average legs or average opening and great legs. It will be a healthy total and the 100m streak goes on for Peele.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I mean....Hereditary pulled off a 3x multiplier with a FRIGGIN D+ CINEMASCORE so I don't think legs are necessarily fubar with next to no direct competition over this next month.

[M37]

In all this talk of legs, I think there is an underestimation of how the barren release calendar - the doggiest dog days of August we've had in a long time - is going to help lift the value of everything currently out in the market. After the Bullet Train/Easter Sunday weekend, there's really nothing of any consequence coming out: a niche release in Dragon Ball, then Beast which should do at best mid-teens, and handful of re-releases (NWH, ET, Jaws).

 

Whether it's club subscribers trying to get their money's worth, or just regular moviegoers searching for something to watch and reconsidering their first impression, it will raise the floor of even the "weaker" titles. Here are some previous weekends to illustrate, with holds from films not generally considered to have good WOM/legs noted

 

May 20-22 (2 weeks after Strange MoM) Notables: Sonic -12%, FB3 -24%

April 29-May 1 (2 weeks after FB3) Notables: Morbius -34%, Ambulance -35%

Jan 28-30 (2 weeks after Scream) - Notables: The 355 -16%, King's Man -7%

Sept 17-19 (2 weeks after Shang-Chi) - Notables: Candyman -26%, Paw Patrol -25%

 

Those (often lol) holds is what should be expected from mid-August until probably the 9/23 weekend with Darling and Avatar.

[Borobudur]

This is why I am still wondering why JWD dropped 40% last weekend, when the field is so quiet. 

 

The lack of competition helped V2 beat V1 in the end, and GB: A to overtake GB 2016 when it was initially seem unlikely. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Borobudur

[The Panda]

It’s almost like cinemascore is a completely meaningless metric that gets talked about more than it deserves.

[titanic2187]

38 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Thor is not even doing 20M and it will be below Minions for the weekend. What a shitshow of a run.

Actually this past mid-week the movie already show some healthy stabilisation as compared to MoM and BW but nope hit it again when Nope take over the imax screens.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, The Panda said:

that gets talked about more than it deserves.

Sure

 

8 minutes ago, The Panda said:

It’s almost like cinemascore is a completely meaningless metric

Comical

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

This is why I am still wondering why JWD dropped 40% last weekend, when the field is so quiet. 

 

The lack of competition helped V2 beat V1 in the end, and GB: A to overtake GB 2016 when it was initially seem unlikely. 

Because it’s more difficult for a $150M opening with poor reviews to grow its audience pool in later weeks, when there are “better” options like Elvis, Black Phone or even a TGM re-watch to choose from 

 

Thor isn’t going to have a -30% weekend no matter how little competition there is. But it could string together some -40% weeks, which is better than one would expect in a “normal” market 

[vale9001]

As I said i don't think legs will be worst than Us because of the cinemascore,  just i think if an original movie like this opens this strong (even when the last movie of the director got a bad WOM) it means Jordan Peele at this point has a strong fanbase so it can be more frontloaded than Us. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by vale9001

[Liiviig 1998]

51 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually this past mid-week the movie already show some healthy stabilisation as compared to MoM and BW but nope hit it again when Nope take over the imax screens.

One thing you must know about MOM that early in it's run it had lower weekdays ,strong weekends but thor has a boost of summer weekdays. 

Numbers looked weak for me starting from Wednesday number . 

Best I saw it at was 23m weekend (49.5-50%)even with no competition from nope.

 

Strange was still playing alittle stronger  onwards 

 

This is looking like black widow ish legs going forward (324m+)

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

With a 68 mil. budget, Nope would need about 175 mil. to break even (2.5xProduction budget) right? Or about 250 mil. if a large part of its gross comes from OS markets...

 

It will probably turn a slight profit once it hits streaming, but I can't see it making enough money to recoup its budget with theatrical only: it will likely bow down somewhere in the 110-150 range DOM, and I don't see it earning 100-150 OS given how poor Peele's movies have performed internationally and how lackluster US was for the GA. 

 

If it goes under 200 mil. total WW then it's even going to loose some money.

It's getting increasingly harder for original non-ip movies to perform well at the B.O., it's troublesome and sad to see 😭 Hopefully Babylon can break this streak and have a La-la land like run, but I fear that it will be too ourageous/explicit to really make it.

Edited July 23, 2022 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[M37]

Some actual numbers & weekend estimates

 

Thor $6.4 - around $21M 

TGM $2.74 - probably under 10, $9.75

Paws $1.145 - mid $3Ms

Edited July 23, 2022 by M37

[Liiviig 1998]

Thor 6.4 m Fri according to reddit.

 

If that holds , 21.5-22m+ weekend(-53%)

Edited July 23, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[vale9001]

45 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

With a 68 mil. budget, Nope would need about 175 mil. to break even (2.5xProduction budget) right? Or about 250 mil. if a large part of its gross comes from OS markets...

 

It will probably turn a slight profit once it hits streaming, but I can't see it making enough money to recoup its budget with theatrical only: it will likely bow down somewhere in the 110-150 range DOM, and I don't see it earning 100-150 OS given how poor Peele's movies have performed internationally and how lackluster US was for the GA. 

 

If it goes under 200 mil. total WW then it's even going to loose some money.

It's getting increasingly harder for original non-ip movies to perform well at the B.O., it's troublesome and sad to see 😭 Hopefully Babylon can break this streak and have a La-la land like run, but I fear that it will be too ourageous/explicit to really make it.

 

Mhh this summer we got 4 non ip movies are gonna make more than 2.5x Their budget (elvis, crawdads, nope and the black phone). 

 

 

It's something. The more non franchise movies you release the more chances you have to find a success. Honestly making 750M or 900M (Thor and Jurassic Park) with 200-250M of budget plus 100-150M of extras it's not this big triumph. When your net receipt is lower than the budget you have invested it's not exactly a success. The more you invest, the more you risk, the more you need to cach out. Or is better to just invest 25M, less risk and making a net receipts of only 30M. If you risk 300M to make just 100M is meh. But of course movie have a life also outside the big screen. 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by vale9001

[wildphantom]

How does an MCU movie even have major legs now when it’s free seven weeks later? We’re in a different realm now. 
I’m not saying L&T would have had better legs as the movie ain’t that great, but all of their films are now pretty much hamstrung from the get go. 

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

That is not a smart perspective.

It is. Studios don't approve bigger budgets if they expect lesser boxoffice. Marvel didn't approve 250M for L&T expecting the boxoffice barely above Ragnarok (180M budget), for example. They bank on audience/fandom growth. So 68M for Nope points at they expected the boxoffice above US and GO. It's no rocket science. I mean, the movie isn't a bomb and it'll turn some small profit so no need to be defensive. But it isn't making more than cheaper movies so return on investment will be smaller. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Valonqar