NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, Starphanluke said:

Is Thor even going to make it to $800m? Feels unlikely.

I’d guess no. ~$735-$750m

[Liiviig 1998]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’d guess no. ~$735-$750m

325-335/390-400m

715-735m.

 

Ain't sniffing anywhere near 750m.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[vale9001]

Elvis made the same 6.5M  of the last week in the international markets. I don't know if there are new markets but good. 

 

Crawdads should end the first 2 full weeks with alredy 45-47M domestic.

[wildphantom]

Can Maverick double Love and Thunder worldwide? I mean, it’s kind of on…..

[vale9001]

So batman over Thor? 

[grim22]

57 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Nope;

 

Remainder of this week: 21.3M (65.3M Total)

Jul 29: 25.2M (14.1M weekdays, 104.6M Total)

Aug 5: 14.7M (6.9M weekdays, 126.2M Total)

Aug 12: 8.7M (2.8M weekdays, 137.7M Total)

Aug 19: 5M (1.7M weekdays, 144.4M Total)

Aug 26: 3M (1.3M weekdays, 148.7M Total)

Sep 2: 2.8M (1.2M weekdays, 152.7M Total)

Sep 9: 700k (200k weekdays, 153.6M Total)

Final Total: 156M (3.55x)

 

I'm not surprised at Nope's frontloading after The Black Phone had similar issues, but WOM is decent. This won't have a crowded release calendar past the third week like Us did. Following The Black Phone's standard weekend patterns would give this a 43% drop next weekend, which isn't unrealistic given it'll still have IMAX and is only losing earlier Dolby shows to Super Pets. Losing IMAX to Bullet Train shouldn't bring too many problems since summer weekdays will start winding down that week. Anything under a 120M finish would be somewhat surprising based on Us and Candyman's legs.

 

[Jiffy]

Who would have thought TGM would be the only $1B+ film of the year so far by the end of summer.

[Krissykins]

Jurassic World Dominion at $920.6m after a $9.96m global weekend. 
 

Say $940m left from these markets. Japan would have to provide $60m for the billion. Wonder how it’ll go. 

[Doffy]

5 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Who would have thought TGM would be the only $1B+ film of the year so far by the end of summer.

Jwd minions might join minions getting china release and for jwd totaly depends on japan.

[LegendaryBen]

11 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Jwd minions might join minions getting china release and for jwd totaly depends on japan.

Unfortunately, Minions 2 will not be getting a China release date.

[LegendaryBen]

37 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Elvis made the same 6.5M  of the last week in the international markets. I don't know if there are new markets but good. 

 

Crawdads should end the first 2 full weeks with alredy 45-47M domestic.

Elvis had no new markets this weekend and Crawdads may end with $70m+ total.

Edited July 24, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[Doffy]

6 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Unfortunately, Minions 2 will not be getting a China release date.

Minions is releasing in china next month.

[vale9001]

51 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Elvis had no new markets this weekend and Crawdads may end with $70m+ total.

 

I thought Crawdads was almost an american phenomenon but it got good debuts in both Australia and Uk, especially in Australia.

 

With good legs as in the Us it could make 15M just from these 2 markets

 

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by vale9001

[Lestranger]

6.8x preview to ow. That’s is pretty poor, and along with the B CinemaScore score, it might suggest weak legs for Nope. US had the same CinemaScore and did just under 2.5x ow for its domestic run. My lower target looks solid, around 110m domestic. I would say this is a disappointment for Universal. A better crowd pleaser could have hit 50m ow and higher multipler. Universal probably wanted this to hit 150m Dom. 

[titanic2187]

If Crawdads followed Dog from here, it will gross 68m but with summer weekdays, Crawdads should have no problem clearing 80m, which I come to think about it, that is actually more than Morbius....

 

On the other hand, TBP actually has a higher running total as of fifth weekend ($78.6m vs $74.5m) as compared to TBG after both opened to a similar range at nearly 24m. They are totally not comparable since TBP gross skewed far more toward weekdays than weekend but just to highlight how tight the race between two. 

[WrathOfHan]

For everyone laughing at my Nope forecast... this was the Elvis forecast y'all laughed at in that weekend thread:

 

Quote

 

Elvis:

 

Jun 24: 30.5M (15.6M weekdays, 46.1M Total)

Jul 1: 25.1M (13.5M weekdays, 84.7M Total)

Jul 8: 14.5M (9M weekdays, 108.2M Total)

Jul 15: 10.9M (5.4M weekdays, 124.5M Total)

Jul 22: 6.7M (3.6M weekdays, 134.8M Total)

Jul 29: 5.3M (2M weekdays, 142.1M Total)

Aug 5: 3.5M (1.2M weekdays, 146.8M Total)

Aug 12: 3.1M (900k weekdays, 150.8M Total)

Aug 19: 2M (500k weekdays, 153.3M Total)

Final Total: 158M (5.18x)

 

 

[vale9001]

The Australian numbers for Crawdads are really good, I didn't expect that. I mean 2.1M first weekend it's the double of Death on the nile (1.2M) and just the half of Uncharted (4M) or Fantastic beats 3 (3.9M).

It can make 8-10M just there. 

 

 

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

For everyone laughing at my Nope forecast... this was the Elvis forecast y'all laughed at in that weekend thread:

 

 

 

I was thinking the same. I'm new here but i remember some laughed at you for your prefiction of Elvis and when you said Crawdads was coming for 70M even before the preview numbers and well... 

[krla]

Just wanted to let everyone know that my donkey, my lover, & I made $30k this weekend

Spoiler

-

N

My Donkey, My Lover & I

Greenwich

$30,000

51

$588

$30,000

1

[The Dark Alfred]

TGM just locked up 700m OS. Domestic better follow suit and produce super soft drops in August. It's looking good for 700m domestic and 1.42 billon WW. Re-release should happen as well. There are so many water blockbusters coming (BP2, Avatar, Titanic, Aquaman)  we will be needing the air combats back 😁