NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Doffy]

Any chance for TG to beat crawdad in actuals.

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

is elvis seen as a success or underperformance WW? and TBP??

 

 

Both successes, especially TBP (compared to the budget)

[baumer]

26 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Decent, but not spectacular OW for Nope. For an R-rated horror, it's a solid start. Should get to 115-120m from here.

 

115 is a 2.6x

 

I think that might be a bit high.

[Noctis]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Both successes, especially TBP (compared to the budget)

 

Plus studios take a bigger cut of the box office in the US so they're pretty happy with Elvis. It's one of those films that will clearly have a long life once it's able to be streamed.

 

 

[Blankments]

 

[Starphanluke]

Is Thor even going to make it to $800m? Feels unlikely.

[DC Rich]

1 minute ago, Starphanluke said:

Is Thor even going to make it to $800m? Feels unlikely.

 

It won't even get to 750m.

[Coldbird]

definitely not, will end up between 720m and 740m most likely.

[Cruel Summer]

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Both successes, especially TBP (compared to the budget)

👏

[filmnerdjamie]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

115 is a 2.6x

 

I think that might be a bit high.

 

It'll crack $100M.

 

But getting the feeling that won't be easy.

[WrathOfHan]

Nope;

 

Remainder of this week: 21.3M (65.3M Total)

Jul 29: 25.2M (14.1M weekdays, 104.6M Total)

Aug 5: 14.7M (6.9M weekdays, 126.2M Total)

Aug 12: 8.7M (2.8M weekdays, 137.7M Total)

Aug 19: 5M (1.7M weekdays, 144.4M Total)

Aug 26: 3M (1.3M weekdays, 148.7M Total)

Sep 2: 2.8M (1.2M weekdays, 152.7M Total)

Sep 9: 700k (200k weekdays, 153.6M Total)

Final Total: 156M (3.55x)

 

I'm not surprised at Nope's frontloading after The Black Phone had similar issues, but WOM is decent. This won't have a crowded release calendar past the third week like Us did. Following The Black Phone's standard weekend patterns would give this a 43% drop next weekend, which isn't unrealistic given it'll still have IMAX and is only losing earlier Dolby shows to Super Pets. Losing IMAX to Bullet Train shouldn't bring too many problems since summer weekdays will start winding down that week. Anything under a 120M finish would be somewhat surprising based on Us and Candyman's legs.

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, Blankments said:

 

Guessing it'll be flat or have a sub-10% drop with Super Pets doubles next week. 5x here we come  

[CJohn]

Decent opening for Nope but not spectacular. With a 68M budget, it needs strong legs and good results from OS markets.

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Nope;

 

Remainder of this week: 21.3M (65.3M Total)

Jul 29: 25.2M (14.1M weekdays, 104.6M Total)

Aug 5: 14.7M (6.9M weekdays, 126.2M Total)

Aug 12: 8.7M (2.8M weekdays, 137.7M Total)

Aug 19: 5M (1.7M weekdays, 144.4M Total)

Aug 26: 3M (1.3M weekdays, 148.7M Total)

Sep 2: 2.8M (1.2M weekdays, 152.7M Total)

Sep 9: 700k (200k weekdays, 153.6M Total)

Final Total: 156M (3.55x)

 

I'm not surprised at Nope's frontloading after The Black Phone had similar issues, but WOM is decent. This won't have a crowded release calendar past the third week like Us did. Following The Black Phone's standard weekend patterns would give this a 43% drop next weekend, which isn't unrealistic given it'll still have IMAX and is only losing earlier Dolby shows to Super Pets. Losing IMAX to Bullet Train shouldn't bring too many problems since summer weekdays will start winding down that week. Anything under a 120M finish would be somewhat surprising based on Us and Candyman's legs.

I will be shocked if it drops under 50% after losing all PLFs to Bullet Train.

[Borobudur]

TBP only drop 35% facing Nope. Doesn't sound like a worthy competitor that crash TBP. That little horror thriller should be able to hit $90m, not that far below from Nope's projected total. 

[WrathOfHan]

People need to remember this is what Us had to deal with for its run:

 

Week 2: Dumbo, a 45M opener

Week 3: Shazam and Pet Sematary, combined 75M openers with the latter being direct competition

Week 4: Little and Hellboy, combined 27M openers and the week it fell below Captain Marvel

Week 5: La Llorona, a 26M opener and direct competiton

Week 6: Endgame, which.... yeah

 

Super Pets will be the Dumbo equivalent for Nope, but Bullet Train will be lucky to do half of what Shazam/Pet Sematary did combined. Then, the rest of August is dead aside from Dragon Ball and Beast which will be low-teens openers at best.

 

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

You clearly don't know yet how box office works.

 

If it ends up doing $45m OW, then with US legs, it'll do $112.5m.

 

With a $45m OW (I'm iffy on that with a $19.5m OD but let's hope) it's near guaranteed to do $100m but GUARANTEED to do $120m? Hell no.

I know I’m not really a “name” around these parts … but yes, I do know his box office works 😉
 

And to be crystal clear, I said “probably a floor of $120M”, but that’s based off the expected gross for the first full week, which we don’t yet have in hand, only extrapolated, with a MOE. 

[LonePirate]

TGM has crossed the 5x multiplier threshold with estimates and is sitting at a 5.01 multiplier with a little over a 1M cushion in case it drops slightly with estimates. Not too bad for a low-key summer film not driven by special effects or superheroes.

[XXR vs XXR]

49 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

You clearly don't know yet how box office works.

 

If it ends up doing $45m OW, then with US legs, it'll do $112.5m.

 

With a $45m OW (I'm iffy on that with a $19.5m OD but let's hope) it's near guaranteed to do $100m but GUARANTEED to do $120m? Hell no.

 

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

I know I’m not really a “name” around these parts … but yes, I do know his box office works 😉
 

And to be crystal clear, I said “probably a floor of $120M”, but that’s based off the expected gross for the first full week, which we don’t yet have in hand, only extrapolated, with a MOE. 

 

No offense to you Noctis, but I would take out a loan against my house that M37 knows more about how the box office works than you do 

[Cruel Summer]

27 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Nope;

 

Remainder of this week: 21.3M (65.3M Total)

Jul 29: 25.2M (14.1M weekdays, 104.6M Total)

Aug 5: 14.7M (6.9M weekdays, 126.2M Total)

Aug 12: 8.7M (2.8M weekdays, 137.7M Total)

Aug 19: 5M (1.7M weekdays, 144.4M Total)

Aug 26: 3M (1.3M weekdays, 148.7M Total)

Sep 2: 2.8M (1.2M weekdays, 152.7M Total)

Sep 9: 700k (200k weekdays, 153.6M Total)

Final Total: 156M (3.55x)

 

I'm not surprised at Nope's frontloading after The Black Phone had similar issues, but WOM is decent. This won't have a crowded release calendar past the third week like Us did. Following The Black Phone's standard weekend patterns would give this a 43% drop next weekend, which isn't unrealistic given it'll still have IMAX and is only losing earlier Dolby shows to Super Pets. Losing IMAX to Bullet Train shouldn't bring too many problems since summer weekdays will start winding down that week. Anything under a 120M finish would be somewhat surprising based on Us and Candyman's legs.

are you trolling?? Nope will barely do over 110m