NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[ThomasNicole]

Peele liked this on twitter 

 

Maybe it's not the best for the business but at least he actually wanted this 

 

 

Assuming 21M or so since walkups look good, 50M is reachable. I think is finishing with at least 120M, more likely 130M, Very happy.

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

yet Paramount failed to book a IMAX re-release in August

What will be taking screens through the end of August. Is there a reason to say it's too late?

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 minute ago, Jiffy said:

What will be taking screens through the end of August. Is there a reason to say it's too late?

100% booked ET, JAWS, DRAGON BALL, completely booked unless somehow gets 1 showing a day

[titanic2187]

I just realised Uncharted was still in theater until Crawdad's opening. Sony really want to feel the summer season. 

 

Jul 8-1017$37,209+44.1%17-5$2,188$148,647,69021

 

[Jiffy]

4 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

100% booked ET, JAWS, DRAGON BALL, completely booked unless somehow gets 1 showing a day

I guess there is always Labor Day / Sept.

[Ryan Reynolds]

7 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I guess there is always Labor Day / Sept.

Jaws is Labor Day weekend

[Krissykins]

A “B” Cinemascore is fine for a horror film btw. Remember, two of the most highly regarded horror films in recent years, Hereditary and Midsommar got a D+ and C+ respectively. 
 

Hereditary has an average of 4/5 from 700k ratings on Letterboxd. Midsommar has a 3.8/5 from 830k ratings. Two of the highest rated horror films on the app. 

[Liiviig 1998]

38 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Peele liked this on twitter 

 

Maybe it's not the best for the business but at least he actually wanted this 

 

 

Assuming 21M or so since walkups look good, 50M is reachable. I think is finishing with at least 120M, more likely 130M, Very happy.

Get what his trying to say , studios should go for films that are more riskier and take swings and try to go to new places. 

 

In a franchise filled age we need more movies like this and more directors like peele.

 

But on the case of disparate reactions . Lots of films have taken swings and come out on the positive side of consensus.

 

Films can be divisive and reaction improves over time e.g fight club 

 

Good for a director to stand by their vision despite disparities in a film they have made, but it's good to find out issues of contention  and improve your scripts and skill in future projects.

 

lest we get those like m night shamylan who are so far up their ass .

 

Nolan is my favorite director but they are  certain issues he is adamant to work on  in his scripts and movies that are starting to irritate me abit.

[VanillaSkies]

Honestly, I don’t think Paramount failed to do anything. The consensus seems to be that they will be making a run at awards season now, and that likely means they will re-release in the fall closer to nominations. They’ve done everything right with this film so far, it unlikely they will just drop the ball suddenly. They know what they are doing….

[SnokesLegs]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I don't really understand when people say this stuff, are theaters in the US or whatever just really loud? Even in blockbusters I feel like I usually don't get much noise, with the film playing it's rare for me to notice if the theater is engaged or not. But I often see people talking about how their theater was bored or whatever, which at most I'd notice at the end (or during trailers), but even then just if the film is getting chatter or not. Idk, maybe its just me though.

Most of the time it’s just projection on the part of the person saying it. I’ve been in screens with restless audiences before where the same restless people have suddenly got up at the end and proclaimed it “best film ever” despite their body language throughout the film indicating otherwise. People can be hard to read unless they literally walk out.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

Assuming 21M or so since walkups look good, 50M is reachable. I think is finishing with at least 120M, more likely 130M, Very happy.

 

Studio less so, though. That would be the lowest grossing Peele movie on the highest budget (68M before P&A). 

[The Dark Alfred]

39 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Studio less so, though. That would be the lowest grossing Peele movie on the highest budget (68M before P&A). 

 

That is not a smart perspective. So studio will be unhappy if Avatar 2 doesn't make 700m? It's lame thinking like when critics downgrade a film just because "it's not as good as the director's previous work".

 

Nope getting over 100m and near 120m would be a champagne opener for the studio. Not to mention that it's likely will outgross Us WW.

[Legion Again]

47*2.6 would be 122, about 40% down from Us in tickets. It’s a solid enough result if it holds for the next few movies but not something you’d want to slide much farther from.

[vale9001]

I'm feeling it's gonna have even worst legs than Us. No cause people are liking it less but because is even more froantloaded. 

It can be something like The village. 50 M first weekend, 114M total. 

[The Dark Alfred]

Not seen the film, so can't say it won't be, but I very much doubt it will do Village legs. Even if it's very frontloaded, there is no competition this summer, so should see softer drops in August.

[M37]

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

yet Paramount failed to book a IMAX re-release in August

That’s just dumb - guess they were too worried about trying to set a streaming date 

 

Though I’d imagine there will be some flexibility/possible showings outside of the Bullet Train and now Dragonball opening weeks, but they should have locked in one of those weeks as an exclusive a month ago 

[M37]

27 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Not seen the film, so can't say it won't be, but I very much doubt it will do Village legs. Even if it's very frontloaded, there is no competition this summer, so should see softer drops in August.

But legs are far weaker overall now than 18 years ago, so doing “Village legs” doesn’t mean it has equivalent WOM (it’s a poor comp for that reason)

 

Us made 1.85x it’s opening week (a better metric than OW to account for season), with a fair amount of competition. Nope should land around $65-$70M for first week, so a good run given the barren release calendar would be a doubling (2x) for $130-$140M 

[krla]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

Studio less so, though. That would be the lowest grossing Peele movie on the highest budget (68M before P&A). 

I imagine this budget is inflated due to covid and vfx. Worst case is he gets a smaller budget in the future. Hard to say how that ends up; some directors just fail hard when they have to do a lean shoot, and some directors strive, If he can still succeed on a leaner budget, that will greatly enhance his value.

 

He's also getting to the point where actors will seek out the opportunity to work with him. This can bring down budgets as you can use profit sharing. Then the studios are more likely to gamble on your projects, since one of the more expensive components (cast) are taking on risk as well.

[Legion Again]

Nope did 1.92x True OWeek. Using 60 true OWeek here, 2.1x for low 130s could be possible.

[Lestranger]

That B CinemaScore is definitely a problem for legs. At most, it will probably do 2.5x this weekend. Best case now would be 125m I think, but I am leaning more towards 110m.