NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Shawn Robbins]

19.54 Fri Nope

 

Not sure if already posted. 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

19.54 Fri Nope

 

Not sure if already posted. 

13.14M True Friday. 

 

14M Saturday and 11M Sunday maybe. Probably looking at a 45M OW or so.

[titanic2187]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by titanic2187

[Legion Again]

Nope not gonna make 7x IM off that. True OWeek could be just 53 or so for a likely sub 120 finish.   
 

Really bad pta for marcel, this expansion is going nowhere.   
 

Right around derby avg for Thor.

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Legion Again]

Minions num will put it around 17M, probably 4M+ behind Thor.

[titanic2187]

 

 

 

 

 

[John2015]

"Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" grossed $410,000 on Friday!

The film will stay in Top 10 chart for two weekends; it is rare for arthouse releases in post-pandemic market. 

 

word-of-mouth is very strong, so the film has chance to gross more than $10 million at US box office.

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2022/07/22

Edited July 23, 2022 by John2015

[Valonqar]

How's TGM looking for 700M dom w/o re-release?

[p a p i]

32 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

How does an MCU movie even have major legs now when it’s free seven weeks later? We’re in a different realm now. 
I’m not saying L&T would have had better legs as the movie ain’t that great, but all of their films are now pretty much hamstrung from the get go. 

By being good. Being well received. Having GREAT word of mouth like Shang-Chi and No Way Home. 

It's just that simple pal

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

How's TGM looking for 700M dom w/o re-release?

Pretty poor. In all my calculations I had included an IMAX/PLF re-release bump which it appears may not happen (at least not an exclusive for a week), and only barely got it to $700M, and last two weekends have been slightly below the -20% pace it needed to hold on top of that 

 

Still think it gets to $680/$690M range, but will need something extra to get it all the way to $700M

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

42 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Mhh this summer we got 4 non ip movies are gonna make more than 2.5x Their budget (elvis, crawdads, nope and the black phone). 

 

 

Well actually Elvis has a 85 milion budget which is quite large, and yet is struggling to gain 200 milion, how can we call that a success? Nope will hardly reach a 2.5x multiplier too.

 

The only original movies to make decent business in 2022 so far are "The Lost City" and "Everything Everywhere all at once", which has an healthy 4x multiplier off its 20 mil budget. But then, in the past we had many 10x multipliers out of small-budgeted movies.

 

It feels like we are lowering the bar over and over again... in 2020-21 covid was the excuse for every underperformance, now it is, alternatively, the older moviegoers being too scared to comeback to cinemas or people waiting for streaming; yet: 1) Top gun maverick has broken records with an older-skewing audience, 2) The lost city made a very good income despite being a rom-com which didn't rely on special effects and could be experienced at home in streaming.

 

I mean people here even defended "The Northman", which has to be one of the biggest bomb of the last 10 years (and I say that as someone who loved the movie, but still a flop is a flop). We can be delusional and praise original films for their performances, but it doesn't change the fact that 99 % of them is flopping and losing money for the studios, which will have repercussion in the future...who would give a 70 milion budget to Eggers? And who would give it to Peele? I don't think that Executives are that dumb or really producing things for the sake of "art".

Edited July 23, 2022 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

The only original movies which did decent business in 2022 so far are "The Lost City"

 

The Lost City had a budget of 75 million.

[Borobudur]

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	N	Nope	Universal	$19,540,000			3,785	$5,162	$19,540,000	1
2	(1)	Thor: Love and Thunder	Walt Disney	$6,398,000	+64%	-54%	4,370	$1,464	$260,518,698	15
3	(2)	Minions: The Rise of Gru	Universal	$5,170,000	+43%	-37%	3,816	$1,355	$285,316,590	22
4	(3)	Where the Crawdads Sing	Sony Pictures	$3,150,000	+35%	-57%	3,650	$863	$31,150,784	8
5	(4)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$2,740,000	+62%	-21%	3,160	$867	$628,305,887	57
6	(5)	Elvis	Warner Bros.	$1,825,000	+53%	-21%	3,105	$588	$113,901,273	29
7	(6)	Paws of Fury: The Legend …	Paramount Pi…	$1,145,000	+46%	-53%	3,481	$329	$11,027,649	8
8	(7)	The Black Phone	Universal	$1,050,000	+80%	-36%	2,055	$511	$76,154,900	29
9	(8)	Jurassic World: Dominion	Universal	$840,000	+55%	-44%	2,165	$388	$363,391,635	43
10	(9)	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris	Focus Features	$410,000	+37%	-42%	1,001	$410	$3,714,985	8
11	(11)	Marcel the Shell with Sho…	A24	$268,250	+268%	+52%	153	$1,753	$2,295,724	29
12	(10)	Lightyear	Walt Disney	$201,000	+13%	-51%	830	$242	$116,636,528	36

[The Dark Alfred]

41 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It is. Studios don't approve bigger budgets if they expect lesser boxoffice. Marvel didn't approve 250M for L&T expecting the boxoffice barely above Ragnarok (180M budget), for example. They bank on audience/fandom growth. So 68M for Nope points at they expected the boxoffice above US and GO. It's no rocket science. I mean, the movie isn't a bomb and it'll turn some small profit so no need to be defensive. But it isn't making more than cheaper movies so return on investment will be smaller. 

 

It is not. Don't need to be negative dude. Some of you like to put a negative spin on everything. It's just as fun to be on the bright side. The studio may hope to do better than Get Out, but certainly not expecting it. Get Out was a phenomenon, can't assume you get those numbers at will. That is not how it works. Studio exec might be greedy, but they are not stupid. I can guarantee you that they are not unhappy with Nope so far. Also you don't actually know what the original budget for the film was when it was greenlighted. That 68m may very well include the extra cost that covid caused for the production.

Edited July 23, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Pretty poor. In all my calculations I had included an IMAX/PLF re-release bump which it appears may not happen (at least not an exclusive for a week), and only barely got it to $700M, and last two weekends have been slightly below the -20% pace it needed to hold on top of that 

 

Still think it gets to $680/$690M range, but will need something extra to get it all the way to $700M

 

Thank you! I noticed that it started to slow down, still great holds but tad below what it needs for 700M. We'll see. Summer is long.

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Really bad pta for marcel, this expansion is going nowhere.   

 

The PTA decrease isn't looking to be too rough since it made $3,700 last week from 153 theaters and appears headed for an average of about $1,500 this weekend after nearly quadrupling its theater account. But yeah, it appears an indie breakout isn't exactly in the cards (too bad, since the movie deserves it).

 

Anyway, Thor's drop looks about right considering it lost all IMAX/PLF screens this weekend to Nope. Curious how Minions holds against Super-Pets next weekend. Crawdads is looking at a very good drop and should continue to post strong holds with the aforementioned release drought coming up. Top Gun and Elvis are still doing great, the latter has a shot at $140M+ now.

[John2015]

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	N	Nope	Universal	$19,540,000			3,785	$5,162	$19,540,000	1
2	(1)	Thor: Love and Thunder	Walt Disney	$6,398,000	+64%	-54%	4,370	$1,464	$260,518,698	15
3	(2)	Minions: The Rise of Gru	Universal	$5,170,000	+43%	-37%	3,816	$1,355	$285,316,590	22
4	(3)	Where the Crawdads Sing	Sony Pictures	$3,150,000	+35%	-57%	3,650	$863	$31,150,784	8
5	(4)	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pi…	$2,740,000	+62%	-21%	3,160	$867	$628,305,887	57
6	(5)	Elvis	Warner Bros.	$1,825,000	+53%	-21%	3,105	$588	$113,901,273	29
7	(6)	Paws of Fury: The Legend …	Paramount Pi…	$1,145,000	+46%	-53%	3,481	$329	$11,027,649	8
8	(7)	The Black Phone	Universal	$1,050,000	+80%	-36%	2,055	$511	$76,154,900	29
9	(8)	Jurassic World: Dominion	Universal	$840,000	+55%	-44%	2,165	$388	$363,391,635	43
10	(9)	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris	Focus Features	$410,000	+37%	-42%	1,001	$410	$3,714,985	8
11	(11)	Marcel the Shell with Sho…	A24	$268,250	+268%	+52%	153	$1,753	$2,295,724	29
12	(10)	Lightyear	Walt Disney	$201,000	+13%	-51%	830	$242	$116,636,528	36

 

 

The chart has one small mistake: "Marcel the Shell with Shoes On" is actually in 590 theaters.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

The Lost City had a budget of 75 million.

It is reported at 68 per Variety... the break even point is basically the same as Nope, and it earned more than 190 milion WW despite a 40 days release window before streaming. It's not great but decent.

[The Dark Alfred]

Another terrific Friday increase for TGM en route to 700m. Bit of a distance to the great Cameron juggernauts, but it is still producing the best summer legs ever. Another sizeable chunk taken from the deficit to BP.  The closest summer release to it way way below on the list is March of the Penguins. It's a fun run to track that's for sure.

 

Biggest domestic 9th Friday:

1	Feb 13, 1998	Titanic	$5,730,480	3,002	$1,909	$349,124,777
2	Feb 12, 2010	Avatar	$4,540,671	2,685	$1,691	$642,146,324
3	Jul 22, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$2,740,000	3,160	$867	$628,305,887

Edited July 23, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Jiffy]

My fondness for even numbers was hoping for Friday strong enough to keep TGM above $10m for this weekend.