Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

A lot of these numbers are great IMO with some wc impact. Main underperformers are obviously China, Japan and to a smaller degree UK and DOM so far.

 

No wc and normal china, this open 600M+ I'd say. Much less worried than I was a few days ago.

 

yeah

my dooming ended 3 days ago

lets see what happens 

[titanic2187]

Is there all the territories we know? Disney tends to disclose very little BO information for smaller market.  

[vale9001]

This sunday the world cup will impact a lot in south america and continental europe, the strongest markets until now. I think the final Os numbers will be a 10-15M lower than today estimates. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by vale9001

[Gkalaitza]

WC will probably impact Sunday almost everywhere and even more than people expect. It should be by far the most watched WC final ever with like 1 billion people watching the entire thing and even more tuning in for parts of it. And it went on for like 3+ hours. Even in asian countries you will see a noticable impact. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[upriser7]

6 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

WC will probably impact Sunday almost everywhere and even more than people expect. It should be by far the most watched WC final ever with like 900 million people watching the entire thing and even more tuning in for parts of it. And it went on for like 3+ hours. Even in asian countries you will see a noticable impact. 

WC will have significant impact mainly in Europe and LATAM..I don't think it'll have significant impact in US, Asia. In lot of the East Asian countries, WorldCup started almost at midnight....In Korea & Japan, Worldcup final started at midnight 12AM...In Thailand, Philippines etc, it would have started almost at 11PM. In India, it started at around 9PM but India is one market where I don't expect WC to have much impact..infact Sunday is going to be biggest day at boxoffice so far for A2 in India. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

WC will have significant impact mainly in Europe and LATAM..I don't think it'll have significant impact in US, Asia. In lot of the East Asian countries, WorldCup started almost at midnight....In Korea & Japan, Worldcup final started at midnight 12AM...In Thailand, Philippines etc, it would have started almost at 11PM. In India, it started at around 9PM but India is one market where I don't expect WC to have much impact..infact Sunday is going to be biggest day at boxoffice so far for A2 in India. 

I guess India is one of few markets that hasn't let Avatar down in weekend.

[Sophia Jane]

14 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

WC will probably impact Sunday almost everywhere and even more than people expect. It should be by far the most watched WC final ever with like 1 billion people watching the entire thing and even more tuning in for parts of it. And it went on for like 3+ hours. Even in asian countries you will see a noticable impact. 

of course Asia like world cup but WC in Asia is happened almost the end of the day,so that's doesn't matter

[shruth]

If avatar could get to $80m in India that would be huge

Edited December 18, 2022 by shruth

[Gkalaitza]

18 minutes ago, Bruce said:

of course Asia like world cup but WC in Asia is happened almost the end of the day,so that's doesn't matter

End of the day still can impact stuff. Even in Korea where Final started at midnight anyone that wanted to stay up and watch it will likely not touch any screening past 19:00. Like even if the screening is at 20:00 you get out of teh theaters at 23:30 and then you have to get your ass home in half an hour to catch  the final. And for every time zone to the west of korea the impact gets bigger and bigger

Edited December 18, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, shruth said:

If avatar could get to $80m in India that would be huge

I’ll take anything over 500 crore.

[MG10]

3 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Going off these openings, maybe something like this for the final totals....

 

China - $125-150M

S. Korea - $90-110M

Germany - $80-100M

France - $80-100M

India - $55-70M

UK - $60-75M

Mexico - $50-60M

Australia - $40-50M

Italy - $35-45M

Brazil - $35-45M
Spain - $25-35M

 

 

Spain is quite leggy so I can already see them surpassing the Italian total (once again)

[stephanos13]

With the BEST World Cup Final probably ever if Avatar's projections for Sunday hold then the movie's run will be more than great.

[vale9001]

There Is a mistake on box office mojo. 350m OS and 484m Total. 

[LPLC]

5 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Japan is this weird market where things that are popular everywhere else can just get ignored entirely but then randomly gives films uber leggy giant runs. i.e. how Disney's animated films never did particularly big business in Japan until Frozen went completely bonkers and got close to Spirited Away (would've likely gotten #2 all-time back then if Disney hadn't rushed BDs out).

 

Makes tracking pretty fun and unpredictable though tbh. I prefer the super leggy surprises to the mega opening, flame out quick kind of run.

And there is Demon Slayer above everything, big opening big legs and big total.

[LPLC]

3 hours ago, Gkalaitza said:

WC will probably impact Sunday almost everywhere and even more than people expect. It should be by far the most watched WC final ever with like 1 billion people watching the entire thing and even more tuning in for parts of it. And it went on for like 3+ hours. Even in asian countries you will see a noticable impact. 

4 billions viewers for the World Cup final

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, LPLC said:

And there is Demon Slayer above everything, big opening big legs and big total.

 

Nothing will ever catch what DS did total in Japan. 

 

[upriser7]

13 minutes ago, LPLC said:

4 billions viewers for the World Cup final

that definitely isn't true... world population is around 8 Billion and 3 Billion of them are in India & China where the viewership for the final would be very low due to less interest and late starting time

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, upriser7 said:

that definitely isn't true... world population is around 8 Billion and 3 Billion of them are in India & China where the viewership for the final would be very low due to less interest and late starting time

 

Yea it'll be around 1.25-1.4 billion if the last two WC Finals rates of increase hold. Total viewership for all matches is around 5 billion but that doesn't mean 5 billion individuals watched.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/world-cup-final-watch-audience-record-tv-stream-2022/cs0lbgjcehr7ld8jqqb1mwpj

[LPLC]

4 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

that definitely isn't true... world population is around 8 Billion and 3 Billion of them are in India & China where the viewership for the final would be very low due to less interest and late starting time

Ok sorry I had seen an article that said that and another that said there were 3 billion viewers in the 2018 final but that's probably exaggerated

[upriser7]

13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Yea it'll be around 1.25-1.4 billion if the last two WC Finals rates of increase hold. Total viewership for all matches is around 5 billion but that doesn't mean 5 billion individuals watched.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/world-cup-final-watch-audience-record-tv-stream-2022/cs0lbgjcehr7ld8jqqb1mwpj

yeah...this number makes sense and is much closer to reality. People overestimate these things all the time. For example in India, average rating per match this worldcup has been around 5M viewers which is like 0.33% of Indian population. Can't imagine viewing numbers in China to be much higher either considering the match started almost close to midnight there.

Edited December 18, 2022 by upriser7