Weekdays Thread (8/8-11) | Top Gun goes sub-1M after 75 days. Tom Cruise lost all his money now :(

[M37]

Since the only box office figure worth caring about at present is whether TGM can make it over the $700M threshold, figured it was time to post this graph

 

I mentioned a while back that for TGM to get to that number, it would need to drop an average of roughly 20% each week after Thor's release, though the end of October, when its run should be almost entirely done. So here is how that path looks, starting from July 14 when the cumulative gross stood at just over $605M, as compared to the actual figures so far:

 

To be clear, these checkpoints are not a forecast, as they do not factor in outside factors like competition and holidays, and presumes that 20% drop rate would hold constant even into late Sept/Oct when it would finally start shedding a lot of theaters and showings. So how does TGM stack up?

 

Presuming TGM makes ~$2M over the next 2 days (Wed & Thur), it will be at $666.76M at the end of this week, nearly $4.0M (+7%) ahead of the pace it needs. When you add in a minor bump for added PLF shows this weekend, plus Labor Day, clearing $690M by the end of Labor Day week (9/08) - if not sooner - looks to be very much in the cards. From there, another $10M over the following 6-8 weeks should be a relatively easy target, crossing the $700M threshold probably sometime in late September. Is it locked? Not quite, but definitely "have tone"

 

[setna]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Since the only box office figure worth caring about at present is whether TGM can make it over the $700M threshold, figured it was time to post this graph

 

I mentioned a while back that for TGM to get to that number, it would need to drop an average of roughly 20% each week after Thor's release, though the end of October, when its run should be almost entirely done. So here is how that path looks, starting from July 14 when the cumulative gross stood at just over $605M, as compared to the actual figures so far:

 

To be clear, these checkpoints are not a forecast, as they do not factor in outside factors like competition and holidays, and presumes that 20% drop rate would hold constant even into late Sept/Oct when it would finally start shedding a lot of theaters and showings. So how does TGM stack up?

 

Presuming TGM makes ~$2M over the next 2 days (Wed & Thur), it will be at $666.76M at the end of this week, nearly $4.0M (+7%) ahead of the pace it needs. When you add in a minor bump for added PLF shows this weekend, plus Labor Day, clearing $690M by the end of Labor Day week (9/08) - if not sooner - looks to be very much in the cards. From there, another $10M over the following 6-8 weeks should be a relatively easy target, crossing the $700M threshold probably sometime in late September. Is it locked? Not quite, but definitely "have tone"

 

Thanks, i love this kind of analysis. 
I made one in a notebook after Thor premiere, and aplying this -20 % drop, yeah, my numbers are the same, it´s great to see other "crazy" doing the same things!

[setna]

Seeing the drops of yesterday from Elvis and other, TGM needs almost a miracle to stay above 1M, crossing fingers!

 

 

 

1	(1)	Bullet Train	$2,330,000	-40%		4,357	$535	$38,902,866	6
-	(2)	DC League of Super Pets	$1,335,000	-38%	-43%	4,332	$308	$49,948,157	13
-	(7)	Where the Crawdads Sing	$825,000	-26%	-37%	3,164	$261	$67,376,498	27
-	(9)	Elvis	$530,000	-25%	-39%	2,411	$220	$138,253,576	48

Edited August 11, 2022 by setna

[Jiffy]

13 minutes ago, setna said:

Seeing the drops of yesterday from Elvis and other, TGM needs almost a miracle to stay above 1M, crossing fingers!

 

 

 

1	(1)	Bullet Train	$2,330,000	-40%		4,357	$535	$38,902,866	6
-	(2)	DC League of Super Pets	$1,335,000	-38%	-43%	4,332	$308	$49,948,157	13
-	(7)	Where the Crawdads Sing	$825,000	-26%	-37%	3,164	$261	$67,376,498	27
-	(9)	Elvis	$530,000	-25%	-39%	2,411	$220	$138,253,576	48

Those drops are relative to their larger Tuesday increases, however. 

 

Most seem to be dropping a few percentage points less than they increased on Tuesday, which would be good news for TGM if it followed that pattern. On edge of my seat!

[jimisawesome]

15 minutes ago, setna said:

Seeing the drops of yesterday from Elvis and other, TGM needs almost a miracle to stay above 1M, crossing fingers!

 

 

 

1	(1)	Bullet Train	$2,330,000	-40%		4,357	$535	$38,902,866	6
-	(2)	DC League of Super Pets	$1,335,000	-38%	-43%	4,332	$308	$49,948,157	13
-	(7)	Where the Crawdads Sing	$825,000	-26%	-37%	3,164	$261	$67,376,498	27
-	(9)	Elvis	$530,000	-25%	-39%	2,411	$220	$138,253,576	48

 

 

So you are saying it needs Miracle number 1?

[abracadabra1998]

36 minutes ago, setna said:

Seeing the drops of yesterday from Elvis and other, TGM needs almost a miracle to stay above 1M, crossing fingers!

 

 

 

1	(1)	Bullet Train	$2,330,000	-40%		4,357	$535	$38,902,866	6
-	(2)	DC League of Super Pets	$1,335,000	-38%	-43%	4,332	$308	$49,948,157	13
-	(7)	Where the Crawdads Sing	$825,000	-26%	-37%	3,164	$261	$67,376,498	27
-	(9)	Elvis	$530,000	-25%	-39%	2,411	$220	$138,253,576	48

Crawdads increased from Monday, and Elvis barely dropped anything... this will be a close one fellas

[M37]

30 minutes ago, setna said:

Seeing the drops of yesterday from Elvis and other, TGM needs almost a miracle to stay above 1M, crossing fingers!

 

 

 

1	(1)	Bullet Train	$2,330,000	-40%		4,357	$535	$38,902,866	6
-	(2)	DC League of Super Pets	$1,335,000	-38%	-43%	4,332	$308	$49,948,157	13
-	(7)	Where the Crawdads Sing	$825,000	-26%	-37%	3,164	$261	$67,376,498	27
-	(9)	Elvis	$530,000	-25%	-39%	2,411	$220	$138,253,576	48

Elvis only down 4.7% from Mon, Crawdads up 4.1% (better to just ignore Tuesday). Both of those are adult skewing films, less affected by schools starting, and TGM needs -5.4% to stay above the $1M Mendoza line

 

With that said, both of those are slightly worse than last week (-3.6% / +8.1% respectively), which combined would imply TGM would be expected to decline more than the 6.6% from Mon to Wed of last week, to around $960-$970K. But we'll see

[Doffy]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Elvis only down 4.7% from Mon, Crawdads up 4.1% (better to just ignore Tuesday). Both of those are adult skewing films, less affected by schools starting, and TGM needs -5.4% to stay above the $1M Mendoza line

 

With that said, both of those are slightly worse than last week (-3.6% / +8.1% respectively), which combined would imply TGM would be expected to decline more than the 6.6% from Mon to Wed of last week, to around $960-$970K. But we'll see

We should also consider theatre count both lost around 400+.

[M37]

Just now, Doffy said:

We should also consider theatre count both lost around 400+.

Shouldn't matter, as that location/showtime loss is baked into the respective daily numbers. That is, they didn't lose those theaters between Mon and Wed of this week, so the relative values are unaffected

[Doffy]

Imax return might hamper the streak above 1million.

[setna]

1 hour ago, jimisawesome said:

 

 

So you are saying it needs Miracle number 1?

Kind of....

[reddevil19]

Regardless of when or even whether TGM hits 700 (it will), I just want Paramount to re-release it a week before each of the next two Mission Impossible movies. One week window, to pump you up for Cruise insanity. 

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, Jiffy said:

Those drops are relative to their larger Tuesday increases, however. 

 

Most seem to be dropping a few percentage points less than they increased on Tuesday, which would be good news for TGM if it followed that pattern. On edge of my seat!

Exactly this. It's consistently shown more muted Tue bumps followed by smaller Wed drops. Fingers crossed. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by reddevil19

[BlitheringEdiot]

Ah Top Gun missed 1 million, still, 75 days above 1 million is insane specially given the competition.

[Jiffy]

Damn the dream is over.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Big drop for Maverick,  those single digit weekend drop predictions are  not happening 

[M37]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Elvis only down 4.7% from Mon, Crawdads up 4.1% (better to just ignore Tuesday). Both of those are adult skewing films, less affected by schools starting, and TGM needs -5.4% to stay above the $1M Mendoza line

 

With that said, both of those are slightly worse than last week (-3.6% / +8.1% respectively), which combined would imply TGM would be expected to decline more than the 6.6% from Mon to Wed of last week, to around $960-$970K. But we'll see

Welp, didn’t even make the range above, $941K. The $1M daily steak ends at a ridiculous 75 days officially (though 78 days if you include the 3 days of EA & previews)

 

 

[Jiffy]

6 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Big drop for Maverick,  those single digit weekend drop predictions are  not happening 

Yeah probably need to adjust expectations unless there is a big Friday increase in store.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

This is the end of TOP GUN: MAVERICK. This is the end of cinema. This is the end of life.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Big drop for Maverick,  those single digit weekend drop predictions are  not happening 

I do think there is something to the idea that the IMAX/PLF rerelease is helping to shift some of what would have been weekday business to the upcoming weekend. There is an assumption of a last hurrah baked in here 
 

While I was never totally on board with those projections, still wouldn’t rule them out, and certainly won’t be surprised if we’re in sub-15/low double digit drop % territory

Edited August 11, 2022 by M37