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Eric Duncan

Weekdays Thread (8/8-11) | Top Gun goes sub-1M after 75 days. Tom Cruise lost all his money now :(

By Eric Duncan, in Numbers and Data

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
On 8/9/2022 at 2:16 PM, baumer said:

With a whole new generation becoming members of this site and a lot of the older members now either gone or just posting sporadically, I wonder how many people here actually get this reference?

I know that reference, one of the first runs I followed lol.

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krla Cult Classic

krla

Posted
Posted

Theater counts from The Numbers;

 

Movie Distributor Theaters Previous
Theaters 		Change
Bullet Train Sony Pictures 4,357 4,357  
DC League of Super Pets Warner Bros. 3,803 4,332 -529
Top Gun: Maverick Paramount Pictures 3,181 2,760 +421
Easter Sunday Universal Pictures 3,176 3,175 +1
Thor: Love and Thunder Walt Disney 3,175 3,400 -225
Minions: The Rise of Gru Universal Pictures 3,058 3,188 -130
Where the Crawdads Sing Sony Pictures 2,916 3,164 -248
Nope Universal Pictures 2,758 3,016 -258
Elvis Warner Bros. 2,211 2,411 -200
Mack & Rita Gravitas Ventures 1,900   New
Bodies Bodies Bodies A24 1,800 6 +1,774
Fall Lionsgate 1,548   New
The Black Phone Universal Pictures 920 1,197 -277
Jurassic World: Dominion Universal Pictures 874 1,232 -358
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Focus Features 569 669 -100
Laal Singh Chaddha Paramount Pictures 516   New
Emily the Criminal Roadside Attractions 473   New
Vengeance Focus Features 426 1,003 -557
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Universal Pictures 389    
Summering Bleecker Street 260   New
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Paramount Pictures 226 497 -271
Lightyear Walt Disney 110 280 -170
Veneciafrenia Sony Pictures 10   New

 

 

BOP has Pets making $8.3 and TGM at $6.8. That'd give them roughly the same PTA (with Pets a bit higher). Last weekend Pets and TGM had roughly the same PTA (again, with Pets slightly higher). Just quickly looking through some re-expansions and this would be the only one I've seen where a movie dropped in gross from the prior week. Even Morbius saw its take increase, though it's PTA dropped just under 20%. That would be roughly the same PTA drop that BOP is estimating for TGM.

 

Though a 421 theater expansion is pretty small for TGM, it's also getting some PLFs (probably what the majority of those 421 new theaters will be), bonus content, and a poster. I can't imagine that it sells less tickets than last weekend. And the tickets it does sell are going to be more expensive. If we take last weekend's PTA, assume that the existing theaters will be able to meet that based on the bonus content and posters alone, and that the 421 are all PLFs that will sell the same number of tickets, but at roughly 20% more, then we're looking at an increase of $1.25m over last week, or $8.25m. And if a single existing theater throws it on a PLF screen, then it's going to go higher. Maybe I'm way off base, but I think the floor on this weekend is around $8.4m. 

 

BOP also has Pets with a tiny drop of 25%. I just can't see that happening? 

 

I think TGM will easily be #2 this weekend. And if the stars align, maybe it can give Bullet Train a challenge. 

 

I could be very wrong. Does anybody have good comparables for a ~15% 're-expansion'? 

 

(btw, even with TGM's 'big' drop today, it still beat Pets' PTA by 10%.)

 

Just some math pulled out of my ass, I don't think it would be surprising to see ticket sales increase by 20% this weekend, and that the average ticket price is going to be roughly 20% higher. Which would put TGM at $10m. Even selling the same amount of tickets as last weekend, just with the average ticket 20% higher, we see $8.4m. For TGM to come in at $6.8m, it would basically require that either it sells roughly the same amount of tickets last week, and nobody sees it in PLF, or that it sells the same amount of tickets as if there was no re-expansion, no bonus content, no poster, but the higher PLF price is what boosts the take. 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, krla said:

Theater counts from The Numbers;

 

Movie Distributor Theaters Previous
Theaters 		Change
Bullet Train Sony Pictures 4,357 4,357  
DC League of Super Pets Warner Bros. 3,803 4,332 -529
Top Gun: Maverick Paramount Pictures 3,181 2,760 +421
Easter Sunday Universal Pictures 3,176 3,175 +1
Thor: Love and Thunder Walt Disney 3,175 3,400 -225
Minions: The Rise of Gru Universal Pictures 3,058 3,188 -130
Where the Crawdads Sing Sony Pictures 2,916 3,164 -248
Nope Universal Pictures 2,758 3,016 -258
Elvis Warner Bros. 2,211 2,411 -200
Mack & Rita Gravitas Ventures 1,900   New
Bodies Bodies Bodies A24 1,800 6 +1,774
Fall Lionsgate 1,548   New
The Black Phone Universal Pictures 920 1,197 -277
Jurassic World: Dominion Universal Pictures 874 1,232 -358
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Focus Features 569 669 -100
Laal Singh Chaddha Paramount Pictures 516   New
Emily the Criminal Roadside Attractions 473   New
Vengeance Focus Features 426 1,003 -557
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Universal Pictures 389    
Summering Bleecker Street 260   New
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Paramount Pictures 226 497 -271
Lightyear Walt Disney 110 280 -170
Veneciafrenia Sony Pictures 10   New

 

 

BOP has Pets making $8.3 and TGM at $6.8. That'd give them roughly the same PTA (with Pets a bit higher). Last weekend Pets and TGM had roughly the same PTA (again, with Pets slightly higher). Just quickly looking through some re-expansions and this would be the only one I've seen where a movie dropped in gross from the prior week. Even Morbius saw its take increase, though it's PTA dropped just under 20%. That would be roughly the same PTA drop that BOP is estimating for TGM.

 

Though a 421 theater expansion is pretty small for TGM, it's also getting some PLFs (probably what the majority of those 421 new theaters will be), bonus content, and a poster. I can't imagine that it sells less tickets than last weekend. And the tickets it does sell are going to be more expensive. If we take last weekend's PTA, assume that the existing theaters will be able to meet that based on the bonus content and posters alone, and that the 421 are all PLFs that will sell the same number of tickets, but at roughly 20% more, then we're looking at an increase of $1.25m over last week, or $8.25m. And if a single existing theater throws it on a PLF screen, then it's going to go higher. Maybe I'm way off base, but I think the floor on this weekend is around $8.4m. 

 

BOP also has Pets with a tiny drop of 25%. I just can't see that happening? 

 

I think TGM will easily be #2 this weekend. And if the stars align, maybe it can give Bullet Train a challenge. 

 

I could be very wrong. Does anybody have good comparables for a ~15% 're-expansion'? 

 

(btw, even with TGM's 'big' drop today, it still beat Pets' PTA by 10%.)

 

Just some math pulled out of my ass, I don't think it would be surprising to see ticket sales increase by 20% this weekend, and that the average ticket price is going to be roughly 20% higher. Which would put TGM at $10m. Even selling the same amount of tickets as last weekend, just with the average ticket 20% higher, we see $8.4m. For TGM to come in at $6.8m, it would basically require that either it sells roughly the same amount of tickets last week, and nobody sees it in PLF, or that it sells the same amount of tickets as if there was no re-expansion, no bonus content, no poster, but the higher PLF price is what boosts the take. 

Think you might be getting a bit out over your skis here. Its not adding those 400+ locations because of the PLF re-release, as those are mostly the higher performing locations that already had it playing through this week.

 

On 8/9/2022 at 10:29 PM, M37 said:

Not implying it would impact much grossing wise, but a location that did already pull it and is only getting say 1 (or even none) of the new releases this week may be inclined to add TGM back just to fill space - cause why not. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the TC stays flat or even goes up a bit 

 

Rather (as I called a few days ago 😉), with nothing of consequence coming out and only one movie looking to gross over $10M this weekend, TGM getting placed back at a lot of lower grossing/smaller theaters that had already pulled it, but worth taking a flyer on a couple of shows of it (maybe not even a full screen) just to fill some space, coinciding with the mini advertising push. But those added locations are going to water down the PTA, not keep it flat or raise it; there's a reason it didn't make the cut at those sites in previous weeks.

 

The PLF shows will help, but from spot checking, doesn't look like theaters really cared all that much, as the spread looks smaller than when it got a PLF push on the 6/24 weekend. Its not like Dune getting a full IMAX re-release the week after Thanksgiving, which even then only netted a -4.5% Sat/Sat drop

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setna Sleeper Hit

setna

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

This is the end of TOP GUN: MAVERICK. This is the end of cinema. This is the end of life.


Yeah, i think some of us in this forum we. ve been really connected to this run. It´s sad won´t get this 80 days, but let´s see if it gets the main goal, the 700 M...

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, setna said:


Very good!

But yeah, it really hurts, even if the weekend gets better numbers than last, it was a very nice milestone...

I’m sure Paramount can find some “missing” Wed & Thur money in Puerto Rico by Monday 

Marvel Studios Reaction GIF by Disney+

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Surprisingly hefty drop for holdovers for a Thursday when nothing significant is coming out. 

I had the same thought at first, but there were 3 new wide-ish releases that all played previews, so something had to get dropped to make room for those shows. All estimates in so far are the ones most likely to lose those shows, being lower evening grossers in at least 2K theaters (except for BT, but that’s a normal drop for first Thursday)

 

Lets wait and see if the 3-7 slots do the same, signaling a pretty pathetic weekend ahead, or maybe it’s just a fluke of what got reported early 

 

EDIT: or maybe people were just too busy following the news last night to go to the movies 🤷‍♂️

Edited by M37
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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Surprisingly hefty drop for holdovers for a Thursday when nothing significant is coming out. 

 

Weirdly I think schools started in my area yesterday so maybe a factor.

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Doffy Indie Sensation

Doffy

Posted
Posted

TGM stayed flat its now obvious imax return and fan weekend is the main factor for dropping below 1m ppl must have held back these two days so they can enjoy maverick one last time in imax this weekend.

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