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Eric Duncan

Weekdays Thread (8/8-11) | Top Gun goes sub-1M after 75 days. Tom Cruise lost all his money now :(

By Eric Duncan, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Big drop for THOR, fell behind TGM. MAVERICK already has #2 PTA, hopefully theater count will reflect that next weekend. No reason for THOR and CRAWDAD have more theatres. NOPE could see a dive as well.

What exactly is coming out to replace these titles at these locations? 

 

More likely TGM may get some theaters back, increase its location count. Could be as high as #2 in gross this upcoming weekend 

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BoxOfficeFangrl Box Office Gold

BoxOfficeFangrl

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Posted (edited)

So back in 2009, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opened mid-week to capitalize on the July 4 holiday. In the estimates, Paramount reported a five-day opening of roughly $201 million. The final figures for the Fri-Sat-Sun portion were $3 million off from the initial estimates. Did this put the nice round $200+ million five-day number in jeopardy? Well, here's the footnote from the Box Office Mojo article that weekend to explain:

 

 

Quote


* Note: Revenge of the Fallen's weekend gross fell $3 million short of Paramount's Sunday estimate, which would have put the five-day opening at $198.2 million. Though shy of $200 million, it would have still ranked second among the all time five-day starts. However, Paramount revised its grosses from Wednesday and Thursday upward, and that's what pushed the total past $200 million. Wednesday went from $60.6 million to $62.0 million, and Thursday went from $28.6 million to $29.1 million. Paramount reported that the differences came from unreported showings from the movie's midnight openings on Wednesday night, which went from the previously reported $16 million at around 3,000 theaters to $16.8 million at close to 3,300 theaters, as well as late reports from institutional IMAX locations and theaters in Puerto Rico and some Caribbean islands (which the studio counts in its domestic numbers), which accounted for $1.1 million of the difference.

 

Lots of box office watchers and reporters at the time called shenanigans on Paramount. The theory was that weekday numbers were easier for them to fudge-allegedly, the studio inflated Wed-Thurs to get over $200m, then deflated some later weekdays to play catch up and have the overall total be accurate. Again, allegedly, as studios are supposed to report accurate final numbers.

 

Anyway, from then on, any time a movie had suspicious numbers that seemed too good to be true, posters on box office forums would start joking about Puerto Rico.

 

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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LonePirate Box Office Gold

LonePirate

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Posted

Sometimes it sucks not living in Los Angeles. Today, the Alamo Drafthouse in Downtown Los Angeles is showing a newly mastered 4K version of Heat (the Michael Mann film starring Al Pacino and Robert DeNiro). The 4K UHD disc is now for sale along with some sort of new prequel and sequel novel co-authored by Mann which is drawing mixed reviews. Regardless, the original movie is an all-time classic. As one of the old timers on this forum along with @baumer I saw the movie in theaters when it premiered back in 1995. I was enthralled from start to finish.. Definitely worth a re-watch.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TGM is already playing in 2.7k locs so I wonder if any expansion do anything. At most you are shifting a few thousands from watching normal version to IMAX.

Not implying it would impact much grossing wise, but a location that did already pull it and is only getting say 1 (or even none) of the new releases this week may be inclined to add TGM back just to fill space - cause why not. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the TC stays flat or even goes up a bit 

 

 

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setna Sleeper Hit

setna

Posted
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17 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Another terrific sub 20 weekly drop for TGM on its cruise and cakewalk to 700m. We have a new player topping the daily chart, these juggernauts will battle it out all week, no other film comes anywhere close.

 

Biggest domestic 11th Monday:

 

1. Aug 23, 1982  E.T.                                         $1,368,186      1,771     $772         $217,075,453

 

 

2. Mar  1, 2010   AVATAR                                 $1,258,677      2,456     $512         $707,818,745

 

 

3. Mar  2, 1998   TITANIC                                $1,062,265      3,035     $350         $428,046,153

 

 

4. Aug  8, 2022   TOP GUN: MAVERICK        $1,056,561      2,750     $383         $663,542,869

 

 

How amazing were Titanic holds to keep the streak 28 days more after 1.06 M in day 74, unelievable!!!!

17 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

 

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Jiffy Sleeper Hit

Jiffy

Posted
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2 hours ago, setna said:

 

How amazing were Titanic holds to keep the streak 28 days more after 1.06 M in day 74, unelievable!!!!

 

Titanic barely dropped at all over the course of March (and actually had a bigger drop following the Oscar ceremony), and I imagine rolling spring breaks starting to occur helped keep weekdays afloat.

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Jiffy Sleeper Hit

Jiffy

Posted
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17 minutes ago, Felandria said:

Do we think TGM will stay over the line today and tomorrow to tie Avatar this weekend?

 

and does anyone know how many days ETs streak was?

Same as Avatar - 80 days.

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Doffy Indie Sensation

Doffy

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23 minutes ago, Felandria said:

Do we think TGM will stay over the line today and tomorrow to tie Avatar this weekend?

 

and does anyone know how many days ETs streak was?

Paramount kinda ruined tgm chances.

People who want to watch tg on wed and thurs will wait for imax return on Friday so we can expect a big drop under 1m.

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Tokugennumataka Sleeper Hit

Tokugennumataka

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BOP is projecting $6.8M (-3%) and $673.6M cume for TGM. Looking back at how few blockbusters performed in near identical timeframe, nearly all of them make around 4.5-6x that weekend and this is without penciling in a huge Labor Day bump at all. Mav should do better than that. So, should that hold come to fruition, it's safe to say that $700M is an absolute lock for TGM. Should be trying for 720-730M imo. 

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LonePirate Box Office Gold

LonePirate

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Depending on the holds for the next three weekends and the presumed increase on Labor Day weekend, TGM will be above $690M and maybe even above $695M on Labor Day. Assuming BOP’s cume after this weekend is correct, the film needs to average $1.2M a day to hit $700M on Labor Day. With a solid Labor Day bounce (and hold this weekend), that’s not an impossibility even if it is unlikely. Mid-September seems to be the absolute latest it happens. 

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
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16 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

BOP is projecting $6.8M (-3%) and $673.6M cume for TGM. Looking back at how few blockbusters performed in near identical timeframe, nearly all of them make around 4.5-6x that weekend and this is without penciling in a huge Labor Day bump at all. Mav should do better than that. So, should that hold come to fruition, it's safe to say that $700M is an absolute lock for TGM. Should be trying for 720-730M imo. 


That also doesn’t even factor in a PLF run for awards season. Yes, it will be on DVD, etc by then… that hasn’t stopped films like Spider-Man No Way Home and Avatar from re- releasing in theatres (though I don’t think it will leave ALL theatres before December, so it’s likely a huge expansion rather than re-release). Plus most people know seeing this on PLF screens is way different than an at home experience. 
 

We can’t rule out an awards run and an even bigger total! 

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