dudalb Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, Porthos said: Wonka just claimed that crown. At 217.7m right now. Does look like the $225m line is safe though (and I unironically note that this is another win for @M37 if a very close for comfort one). Should top out at, what, 221m? 220m to 222m? Something like that at any rate (unless it gets some late late legs thanks to Dune: Part Two). Thing is you can never be 100% sure. William Goldman in one of his bookd wrote about a number of films he worked on that were seen as sure fire blockbusters, and bombed. And this time last year who was expecting Barbie to be so massive at the box office? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 51 minutes ago, Porthos said: Wonka just claimed that crown. At 217.7m right now. Does look like the $225m line is safe though (and I unironically note that this is another win for @M37 if a very close for comfort one). Should top out at, what, 221m? 220m to 222m? Something like that at any rate (unless it gets some late late legs thanks to Dune: Part Two). First off, I know I'm the one who pointed out the void (and yes, has kept bringing it up), but its not like I have the power to keep films out of that range Spoiler But truth be told, while I will emphasize the actual threshold marks of $225 and $325, I actually believe the real gap starts at $200/$210M to when you account for outlier/atypical results. Here are the $200M+ films post-pandemic Shang-Chi = $224M (great WOM and no Sept competition) Wonka = ~$222M (holiday boost plus no Jan/Feb competition) AMWQ = $214M (this should have been a $300M+ film before reviews knocked down the opening and it had BvS/Morbius type legs) Venom 2 = $213M (good Nov legs, but otherwise no real asterisks?) That's the entire list! Next highest is Sonic 2 at $190M, followed closely a by a few other $180M+ titles As for the upper bound on the gap threshold ... that's more complicated. We have the one exception of Mermaid at $298M, but I do think that's a special case (and even if not ... well hold that thought 🙃). Then Oppy at $325M before the Oscar re-expansion which I suppose one could argue was headed for a Dunkirk like $60/$190M before hitching a ride on the Barbie train, followed by a jump to Thor at $343M, which again likely lost some potential due to mediocre WOM, and nothing else until GOTG3 at $358M, which had great WOM/legs for a CBM, but also could/should have opened higher with weaker legs for a similar total, before you again get to clustering in the $370-$380M range So IMO its more like a soft line of ~$210-$340M, with some special cases being able to work around the edges there and creep into the void, but only true exception landing closer to the middle. And to emphasize what I noted offhand above, the trendline on this phenomenon goes back to before the pandemic, really kicking off in 2015 (which, perhaps not coincidentally, is when the box office began to become more top heavy, as evidenced by the market share of the 50th place film started to significantly reduce) I'm probably going to have to go ahead and finally chart this... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, M37 said: First off, I know I'm the one who pointed out the void (and yes, has kept bringing it up), but its not like I have the power to keep films out of that range Reveal hidden contents But truth be told, while I will emphasize the actual threshold marks of $225 and $325, I actually believe the real gap starts at $200/$210M to when you account for outlier/atypical results. Here are the $200M+ films post-pandemic Shang-Chi = $224M (great WOM and no Sept competition) Wonka = ~$222M (holiday boost plus no Jan/Feb competition) AMWQ = $214M (this should have been a $300M+ film before reviews knocked down the opening and it had BvS/Morbius type legs) Venom 2 = $213M (good Nov legs, but otherwise no real asterisks?) That's the entire list! Next highest is Sonic 2 at $190M, followed closely a by a few other $180M+ titles As for the upper bound on the gap threshold ... that's more complicated. We have the one exception of Mermaid at $298M, but I do think that's a special case (and even if not ... well hold that thought 🙃). Then Oppy at $325M before the Oscar re-expansion which I suppose one could argue was headed for a Dunkirk like $60/$190M before hitching a ride on the Barbie train, followed by a jump to Thor at $343M, which again likely lost some potential due to mediocre WOM, and nothing else until GOTG3 at $358M, which had great WOM/legs for a CBM, but also could/should have opened higher with weaker legs for a similar total, before you again get to clustering in the $370-$380M range So IMO its more like a soft line of ~$210-$340M, with some special cases being able to work around the edges there and creep into the void, but only true exception landing closer to the middle. And to emphasize what I noted offhand above, the trendline on this phenomenon goes back to before the pandemic, really kicking off in 2015 (which, perhaps not coincidentally, is when the box office began to become more top heavy, as evidenced by the market share of the 50th place film started to significantly reduce) I'm probably going to have to go ahead and finally chart this... I agree with all of that, FWIW. The original reason why I... Hmmm, "playfully teased a bit" about the range all those months ago is I felt the numbers were a bit too... arbitrary isn't quite the right word so instead I'll say: a bit too inflexible/ironclad. As it is, I personally prefer the soft range that you're discussing here and agree with it 100% (or maybe 99.9999% as there's always room for comment after all). ... At the same time soft fuzzy ranges that are more like transition states make for terrible memes, so who am I to judge? 😛 (still, have to admit, will be HILARIOUS when Wonka just misses 225. 😉) Edited March 9 by Porthos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Ant-Man managed to clear $200M and stay flat with its predecessor despite awful reviews, awful word of mouth, and awful legs. Impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, M37 said: AMWQ = $214M (this should have been a $300M+ film before reviews knocked down the opening and it had BvS/Morbius type legs) Very, very true and I'm so happy you acknowledged this and I'm just going to go on a rant here Ant-Man 3 with positive reception is an easy $140M --> $350M type run. And even then, the MCU brand brought a third-rate character with horrible reviews to a $100M+ opening weekend, in the same year where 5/7 live action comic book movies either failed to pass or kinda just barely passed $100M domestic total. In fact, from Barbie to Inside Out 2 there's going to almost a full year where nothing opened higher than Ant-Man 3 (I would love it for Inside Out 2 to open below-$106M so Deadpool 3, another Marvel movie, will be the one who will have to break the streak lmao). So to put it into perspective lets take AM3's $120M long weekend. This weekend, which was significantly fucked over by shit reception, alone beats the domestic total of Shazam: Fury of the Gods, Blue Beetle, The Marvels, and The Flash. And it's only $4M away from Aquaman, a movie with fine WOM and was boosted by the holidays. That's how strong Ant-Man 3's performance is compared to other comic book movies in 2023. The notion that Quantumania underperformed because "nobody cares about Kang" is asinine, if Deadpool 3 has a big OW and bad legs because of bad reception we're gonna get an army of "nobody about Wolverine" comments. Edited March 9 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) On 1/18/2023 at 5:04 AM, Legion Again said: Dude this is a better guess for OWeek than total Ok to the person who reacted to JJJ laughing with this, I just gotta say: Legion wasn't expecting the movie to have such horrible reception Edited March 9 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 I mean, it was a better guess for OWeek then total — but it basically came true for total, so very much a moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Legion Again said: I mean, it was a better guess for OWeek then total — but it basically came true for total, so very much a moment Just wondering how much QM would have done with a 90/A instead of a 40/B? Like DOM OW/DOM total/WW total? Personally, I don't give a shit about The Marvels because that movie was DOA but QM specifically pisses me the fuck off because of how well it was tracking only for them to shit the bed with a terrible script which might have possibly collapsed the entire franchise. Edited March 9 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 10 hours ago, Porthos said: I agree with all of that, FWIW. The original reason why I... Hmmm, "playfully teased a bit" about the range all those months ago is I felt the numbers were a bit too... arbitrary isn't quite the right word so instead I'll say: a bit too inflexible/ironclad. As it is, I personally prefer the soft range that you're discussing here and agree with it 100% (or maybe 99.9999% as there's always room for comment after all). ... At the same time soft fuzzy ranges that are more like transition states make for terrible memes, so who am I to judge? 😛 (still, have to admit, will be HILARIOUS when Wonka just misses 225. 😉) 12 hours ago, M37 said: I'm probably going to have to go ahead and finally chart this... Double peaks! I'll do a full write up in a more visible/high traffic thread (prob tracking?), but wanted to at least share the first aggregation of the data 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 hours ago, M37 said: Double peaks! I'll do a full write up in a more visible/high traffic thread (prob tracking?), but wanted to at least share the first aggregation of the data Ooh, that’s a great choice of metric. Although, I feel like +/- 10% would also be very interesting. And of course you can turn parameters up or down — I wonder if it’s possible to get a meaningful triple peak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalo Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Thanks to their being almost no big SH films this year there actually could be a lot of $200-$300m hits this year. Dune Part 2 $280-$310m Kung Fu Panda 4 $180-$220m Furiosa $160-$220m Inside Out 2 $250-$350m Despicable me 4 $250-$350m Twisters $150-$220m Deadpool & Wolverine $285-$385m Borderlands $180-$280m Beetlejuice Beetlejuice $150-$250m Joker: Folie à Deux $250-$300m Venom 3 $200-$230m Gladiator II $250-$350m Wicked $150-$250m Moana 2 $120-$200m (probably not though) Untitled Karate Kid $130-$230m The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim $130-$230m Mufasa: The Lion King $150-$250m Sonic the Hedgehog 3 $180-$250m Nosferatu $110-$200m. (probably not that high but who knows) Like Seriously I see almost no film hitting $400m+ dom this year. a very small chance for DP3 and IO2. Maybe Gladiator II, but I doubt it. so really almost all of the potential hits are looking to fall into this range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 21 hours ago, dudalb said: HOw About GOTG 3? And last time I looked Barbie did over a Billion worldwide. My mistake, I thought filmlover was talking about movies that would gross 200-299M as Therad title says, but they said 200m+ so I guess they were also talking about movies that grossed above 299m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) I think Wild Robot could be another contender if has Dragon-level reviews. Has two months free of competition. Has a much better shot than Borderlands at least. Edited March 9 by AniNate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 4 minutes ago, AniNate said: I think Wild Robot could be another contender if has Dragon-level reviews. Has two months free of competition. Has a much better shot than Borderlands at least. Sadly, i dont see it.. Puss had great reviews and WoM, its only competiton was Avatar, and it was a spin off a beloved franchise with nostalgia, and it couldn't gross 200M+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 (edited) Puss was over a year ago, it also had a pretty lousy opening that might not be an issue for Wild Robot based on early trailer buzz. It's based on a popular book so there is a certain built-in audience. Also Puss does adjust over $200mil now with inflation. I do think people are way overestimating the appeal of the LOTR movie. I see maybe $100mil at best for that. Has the vibes of a made-for-TV movie that Warner is only putting in theaters so they can keep the IP rights. Edited March 9 by AniNate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Feel like a broken record but the way people keep shrugging off or ignoring the Fall Guy. The hype will start building for that Tuesday when they have the SXSW showing and if Universal is correct in the confidence they have in that. I assume the new trailer will drop next week too. I am not saying this will have 100 million dollar opening weekend but 50+ with strong WOM and legs 200m+ is doable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 17 minutes ago, AniNate said: Puss was over a year ago, it also had a pretty lousy opening that might not be an issue for Wild Robot based on early trailer buzz. It's based on a popular book so there is a certain built-in audience. Also Puss does adjust over $200mil now with inflation. I do think people are way overestimating the appeal of the LOTR movie. I see maybe $100mil at best for that. Has the vibes of a made-for-TV movie that Warner is only putting in theaters so they can keep the IP rights. My only concern with Wild Robot is facing Transformers One the week before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 If SXSW buzz is indeed good for Fall Guy then yeah, I can see it breaking out. But SXSW selection can be a crapshoot and I wasn't impressed by the trailer, so I'll need to be convinced by the actual reviews. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, AniNate said: If SXSW buzz is indeed good for Fall Guy then yeah, I can see it breaking out. But SXSW selection can be a crapshoot and I wasn't impressed by the trailer, so I'll need to be convinced by the actual reviews. Yeah I got you. I just see no reason for Universal to risk it and screen it this early to fuel WOM and hype. If those reviews come in so so at best the movie is toast. If Universal thought it could be a crowd pleaser but not a critical pleaser they would wait to week of release one would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 (edited) 200-299 films post pandemic Shang-Chi ($224M) Venom 2 ($213M) Ant-Man 3 ($215M) The Little Mermaid ($298M) Wonka ($217M) Anyways, some decent contenders for this year are: Dune 2 (if it slips below $300M it will just be barely behind) Kung Fu Panda 4 (Needs 3.33x legs, doable with good reception + Spring break) Deadpool 3 (if it gets a B/B+. . .like 4 out of the last 6 MCU movies 😲) Joker 2 (the last one made $335M so a minor drop is expected) I'm actually shocked Deadpool 3 is a decent candidate because May 2022 Deadpool 3 easily fits into this range. . .in its opening weekend. Kind of like how GOTG 3, a movie that would've opened to 200+ in May 2022, was (at a point) quite likely to end up in this range until great reception saved it Edited March 10 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
