Legion Again Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 34 minutes ago, JWR said: Guardians 3 Did you get confused with OW or something??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: Spiderverse has almost no chance — because Fast X is doing it first. If something does it before fast X put my money on John Wick More detailed thoughts: Hide contents Adam : probably under Strange world: probably under Puss: probably under ant-man: probably over Creed: probably under Shazam: probably under John Wick: 🤔… still probably under I think, maybe best chance so far though? Mario: probably under? Fast X: pretty likely, right? Spiderverse: solid shot transformers: probably under Elemental: no idea flash: no idea Dead Reckoning pt 1: pretty likely Barbie probably under, Oppenheimer probably under, blade hopefully over but decent chance of in between, dune good chance, hunger games under I guess No way Mario does less than 200M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Grebacio said: No way Mario does less than 200M I think Mario has a better chance at 300m than Ant Man does. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 40 minutes ago, Grebacio said: No way Mario does less than 200M Pikachu 2 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 You guys have given me the idea for gotg OW over Mario Dom club 🤔 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: You guys have given me the idea for gotg OW over Mario Dom club 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Legion By Night said: Pikachu 2 👀 Illumination which has become the biggest in animation at the box office which unlike WB knows how to market family films, which has not had an animated film over 275M (only three of their films have gone under 200M (Sing 2 got hurt mainly due to Omicron)). Also Mario will skew much younger than Pikachu mainly because it’s wholly animated and will likely from a marketing perspective focus more on the comedy. Mario also benefits from being the first family/animated film since the holidays with no major competition to hurt it. I’d be shocked if it did under Sonic 2. Edited September 19, 2022 by YM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 3 hours ago, YM! said: No but I can see a feast or famine thing for it. One situation where it overperforms massively beyond our expectations and does $300m+ domestic, and another where it underperforms and does slightly under the first by 5-10% ($170m-$180m) The latter situation of $170m-$180m domestic is the far most likely of the two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWR Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, YM! said: Illumination which has become the biggest in animation at the box office which unlike WB knows how to market family films, which has not had an animated film over 275M (only three of their films have gone under 200M (Sing 2 got hurt mainly due to Omicron)). Also Mario will skew much younger than Pikachu mainly because it’s wholly animated and will likely from a marketing perspective focus more on the comedy. Mario also benefits from being the first family/animated film since the holidays with no major competition to hurt it. I’d be shocked if it did under Sonic 2. Mario also won't have to be dealing with as much competition as Pikachu was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loves Rey Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Fast X feels like it's gonna underperform big time. Mario, Spider-Verse, or Mission: Impossible should be the first to get to 200M. Feel like Spider-Verse is the most likely, because I'm betting big on Mario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWR Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) Mario is probably going to get to $200M first. Then Mission: Impossible, and then Spider-Verse. And maybe behind that I'd say Elemental has a 50/50 shot at hitting that number, too. Edited September 19, 2022 by JWR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 15 hours ago, cannastop said: No chance for Puss in Boots. In a year where Minions 2 will get to $370M, Sonic 2 to $191M, no NWH or Omicron outbreak, Puss in Boots beating Sing 2’s $162M is very likely, and the ceiling is above $200M Original Sing made $270M from its late December release in part because there was limited family product for holidays: Adult-skewing tentpole Rogue One (Avatar 2), Thanksgiving leftover Moana (Strange World) … and that’s it. Similar set-up this year leaves door wide open, if by default 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, M37 said: In a year where Minions 2 will get to $370M, Sonic 2 to $191M, no NWH or Omicron outbreak, Puss in Boots beating Sing 2’s $162M is very likely, and the ceiling is above $200M Original Sing made $270M from its late December release in part because there was limited family product for holidays: Adult-skewing tentpole Rogue One (Avatar 2), Thanksgiving leftover Moana (Strange World) … and that’s it. Similar set-up this year leaves door wide open, if by default I'm just thinking of the 2011 Puss in Boots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Stealing @Legion By Night‘s list for easy listing of chances and to give ranges: Adam : Likely under, $100m-$140m Strange World: Definitely under, $90m-$120m Puss: Likely under to maybe just in range, $130m-$200m Ant-Man: In range to over the 300M threshold, $275m-$320m Creed: Definitely Under, $100m-$130m Shazam: Maybe under/over, $180m-$220m John Wick: Definitely under, $120m-$150m Mario: In range to over the 300M threshold, $250m-$370m Fast X: Just under the 200M threshold: $160m-$190m Spiderverse: Over/Under the 200M threshold, $170m-$215m Transformers: Definitely under, $90m-$125m Elemental: Over/Under the 200M threshold, $170m-$215m Flash: In range to over the 300M threshold, $240m-$320m Dead Reckoning pt 1: In Range, $230m-$280m Barbie: Over/Under the 200M threshold, $170m-$215m Oppenheimer: Likely under, $100m-$150m Blade: In range, $200m-$270m Dune: Over/Under the 200M threshold, $170m-$225m Hunger Games: In range, $220m-$240m Wish: Over/Under the 200M threshold, $170m-$230m Wonka: In range, $200m-$260m Ghostbusters: Likely under, $100m-$140m Migration: In range, $200m-$225m 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, cannastop said: I'm just thinking of the 2011 Puss in Boots. The one that shocked the hell out of everyone and opened to $34M on Halloween weekend, and then held at $33M the next weekend? Grossed in total as much as X-Men First Class that same year, despite getting hammered with competition (Happy Feet 2, Muppets, Arthur Christmas) over Thanksgiving and basically gone by Christmas? I'll just add: there's a reason I specifically mentioned Minions and Sonic as points of comparison. I'm not sure that's our next $200+ title, but it has a decent shot 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Black Adam....Hello 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 11 hours ago, Maggie said: Black Adam....Hello Think this is more likely to miss 100M than cross 200M? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: Think this is more likely to miss 100M than cross 200M? Here's the thing about Black Adam. The marketplace is fuckin' starved for anything remotely approaching mass appeal. How long has it been since a decent opener, anyway? Bullet Train at 30m, maybe? Otherwise it's Nope at 44m and L&T at 144m. Been a looooong dry spell at the box office. More to the point, maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to @The Eric King's Quorum tracking, but that's currently pointing to a decent shot at a 70m opener for BA, depending on just how solid the DC/Marvel comp system is. Still a long way out on that tracking, and I presume it's still in the refinement stage for Eric, but I dunno. Early signs are good for it, maybe? Edited September 20, 2022 by Porthos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, Porthos said: depending on just how solid the DC/Marvel comp system is. This is really the big caveat. In particular the N on DC is like... Just batman? Batman+TSS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: This is really the big caveat. In particular the N on DC is like... Just batman? Batman+TSS? Well, yeah, I mentioned it for a reason. But even the other ones are giving a 50 to 60 percent shot at a 70m opener, which is why I phrased it as a "decent shot" in my post. I reckon that a 50%-60% chance according to GA metrics + the much better DC/Marvel ones gives it a reasonable chance at it. And, as you well know, I have every reason in the world to look for evidence for it to miss 70m. (though, honestly, prob gonna track it regardless) Edited September 20, 2022 by Porthos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
