Blankments Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Even before the pandemic, we had started to reach a territory where the mid-level success between 200M and 300M was disappearing. Merely one film in 2019 hit this, IT: CHAPTER TWO. Then at the beginning of 2020, BAD BOYS FOR LIFE joined it. Since the pandemic, the road to recovery meant that SHANG-CHI and VENOM 2 also hit it, but since the latter, not a single film has hit the 200M to 300M range in domestic box office. This thread is designed to speculate what the next "mid-level mega hit" would be, as I'm personally at a loss for guessing it. If GLASS ONION weren't at Netflix, it'd be my guess, but looking at the rest of the year, it seems unlikely any movie hits that range. The only real option seems to be PUSS IN BOOTS. If PUSS IN BOOTS doesn't make it, when and what will it be? My guess then would be in June 2023, with SPIDER-VERSE, TRANSFORMERS and ELEMENTAL all as distinct possibilities. That said, this is a thread, ergo I'm curious what you all think. What will be the next film to gross between 200M and 300M? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Fabelmans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Puss in Boots, if not that Shazam 2, if not that Elemental. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR Anti-Hero Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Black Adam 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, YM! said: Puss in Boots, if not that Shazam 2, if not that Elemental. Ant Man and Mario could both do the 200-300m range but I think both go over 300m is likely. Puss in Boots I feel moreso around mid 100m but I mean it’s doing surprisingly well Quorom tracking, the de facto number 2 choice against Avatwo and I think nostalgia will help it some. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, YM! said: Puss in Boots, if not that Shazam 2, if not that Elemental. No chance for Puss in Boots. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, cannastop said: Fabelmans That would be cool 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 This year: Black Adam and Puss in Boots Next year: Shazam, Spiderverse, Wick 4, Barbie, Black Beetle (although I think that will move to 2024) and Dune 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Spiderverse is my guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 What if.... Magic Mike 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Star is Delayed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 If the stars align, Black Adam. Would love to see Fablemans reach those levels, but I think it's going to be more niche. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Ant-Man. I want to say something in December will surprise (Puss in Boots or evening Babylon) but I doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 I'd give black adam a decent chance, the dearth of anything in Sept and most of Oct could give it the edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Ant-Man, probably. I expect 2023 will see the return of $200-300M grossers now that the market has pretty much recovered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) If we are lucky Black Adam will hit $300m. Puss 2 will hit $200m due to Christmas legs at miminuim. Upper $200m is more likely with zero family competition this December. Just look how well Sing 2 made with holiday legs even during the height of covid, $162m! 2022 really was feast or famine. Pretty wild we were able to get a $700m DOM movie in the summer, that kind of monster won't be happening for a long time (sorry BP2 and AVA2) with increased competition starting in 2023. MCU shine has worn off thanks to double disappointment of MoM and Thor. Edited September 19, 2022 by Mojoguy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 I’m skeptical of Across doing 200m, mainly due to the one two three punch of Guardians 3, Fast X and Little Mermaid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, YM! said: I’m skeptical of Across doing 200m, mainly due to the one two three punch of Guardians 3, Fast X and Little Mermaid. do you think it's doing 300M then??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 8 hours ago, Blankments said: do you think it's doing 300M then??? No but I can see a feast or famine thing for it. One situation where it overperforms massively beyond our expectations and does $300m+ domestic, and another where it underperforms and does slightly under the first by 5-10% ($170m-$180m) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWR Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 None of these are guarantees but they do seem like the most likely candidates. This year: Black Adam Puss in Boots 2023: Ant-Man 3 Guardians 3 Fast X The Little Mermaid Across the Spider-Verse Elemental Dune Part 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legions of the Galaxy Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) Spiderverse has almost no chance — because Fast X is doing it first. If something does it before fast X put my money on John Wick More detailed thoughts: Spoiler Adam : probably under Strange world: probably under Puss: probably under ant-man: probably over Creed: probably under Shazam: probably under John Wick: 🤔… still probably under I think, maybe best chance so far though? Mario: probably under? Fast X: pretty likely, right? Spiderverse: solid shot transformers: probably under Elemental: no idea flash: no idea Dead Reckoning pt 1: pretty likely Barbie probably under, Oppenheimer probably under, blade hopefully over but decent chance of in between, dune good chance, hunger games under I guess Edited September 19, 2022 by Legion By Night 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
