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What Will The Next Film To Do 200M-300M?

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Even before the pandemic, we had started to reach a territory where the mid-level success between 200M and 300M was disappearing. Merely one film in 2019 hit this, IT: CHAPTER TWO. Then at the beginning of 2020, BAD BOYS FOR LIFE joined it. Since the pandemic, the road to recovery meant that SHANG-CHI and VENOM 2 also hit it, but since the latter, not a single film has hit the 200M to 300M range in domestic box office. This thread is designed to speculate what the next "mid-level mega hit" would be, as I'm personally at a loss for guessing it. If GLASS ONION weren't at Netflix, it'd be my guess, but looking at the rest of the year, it seems unlikely any movie hits that range. The only real option seems to be PUSS IN BOOTS.


If PUSS IN BOOTS doesn't make it, when and what will it be? My guess then would be in June 2023, with SPIDER-VERSE, TRANSFORMERS and ELEMENTAL all as distinct possibilities. That said, this is a thread, ergo I'm curious what you all think. What will be the next film to gross between 200M and 300M?

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4 minutes ago, YM! said:

Puss in Boots, if not that Shazam 2, if not that Elemental.

Ant Man and Mario could both do the 200-300m range but I think both go over 300m is likely. 

Puss in Boots I feel moreso around mid 100m but I mean it’s doing surprisingly well Quorom tracking, the de facto number 2 choice against Avatwo and I think nostalgia will help it some. 

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If we are lucky Black Adam will hit $300m.


Puss 2 will hit $200m due to Christmas legs at miminuim. Upper $200m is more likely with zero family competition this December. Just look how well Sing 2 made with holiday legs even during the height of covid, $162m!


2022 really was feast or famine.


Pretty wild we were able to get a $700m DOM movie in the summer, that kind of monster won't be happening for a long time (sorry BP2 and AVA2) with increased competition starting in 2023. MCU shine has worn off thanks to double disappointment of MoM and Thor.

Edited by Mojoguy
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8 hours ago, Blankments said:

do you think it's doing 300M then???

No but I can see a feast or famine thing for it. One situation where it overperforms massively beyond our expectations and does $300m+ domestic, and another where it underperforms and does slightly under the first by 5-10% ($170m-$180m)

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None of these are guarantees but they do seem like the most likely candidates.


This year:

Black Adam 

Puss in Boots 



Ant-Man 3

Guardians 3

Fast X

The Little Mermaid

Across the Spider-Verse 


Dune Part 2


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Spiderverse has almost no chance — because Fast X is doing it first. If something does it before fast X put my money on John Wick


More detailed thoughts:


Adam : probably under

Strange world: probably under

Puss: probably under

ant-man: probably over

Creed: probably under

Shazam: probably under

John Wick: 🤔… still probably under I think, maybe best chance so far though?

Mario: probably under?

Fast X: pretty likely, right?

Spiderverse: solid shot

transformers: probably under

Elemental: no idea

flash: no idea

Dead Reckoning pt 1: pretty likely

Barbie probably under, Oppenheimer probably under, blade hopefully over but decent chance of in between, dune good chance, hunger games under I guess


Edited by Legion By Night
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