What Will The Next Film To Do 200M-300M?

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

200-299 films post pandemic

Shang-Chi ($224M)

Venom 2 ($213M)

Ant-Man 3 ($215M)

The Little Mermaid ($298M)

Wonka ($217M)

 

Anyways, some decent contenders for this year are:

 

Dune 2 (if it slips below $300M it will just be barely behind)

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (Needs 3.33x legs, doable with good reception + Spring break)

 

Deadpool 3 (if it gets a B/B+. . .like 4 out of the last 6 MCU movies 😲)

 

Joker 2 (the last one made $335M so a minor drop is expected)

 

I'm actually shocked Deadpool 3 is a decent candidate because May 2022 Deadpool 3 easily fits into this range. . .in its opening weekend. Kind of like how GOTG 3, a movie that would've opened to 200+ in May 2022, was (at a point) quite likely to end up in this range until great reception saved it 

 

 

 

 

If we played a drinking game every time you mention that Guardians 3 would have done 200 million + in May 2022 would all died of liver failure by now. Multiverse of Madness was coming off Spider Man NWH and still only did 187 in that slot. Guardians would have probably done the same but had much better legs with much better reception. 

[HummingLemon496]

On 9/19/2022 at 9:42 AM, Legion Again said:

You guys have given me the idea for gotg OW over Mario Dom club 🤔

Final result

GOTG OW: $118M

Mario DOM: $574M

 

[ChipDerby]

WHEN WILL THE NEXT $299-325 MIL FILM BE?!?

[HummingLemon496]

29 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

WHEN WILL THE NEXT $299-325 MIL FILM BE?!?

[Bob Train]

Joker will do over $350m I think, maybe $400m.

[HummingLemon496]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Joker will do over $350m I think, maybe $400m.

I want it do to $390M exactly because then GOTG, MCU Spider-Man. and Joker will all have identical grossing originals and sequels domestically 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Joker will do over $350m I think, maybe $400m.

 

I do worry a bit about the Musical Penalty, FWIW.  Each of the last three releases that were pseudo stealth musicals all got hit with a penalty for not putting it in the marketing, with only Wonka really being able to overcome it via WOM.

 

Not that I think it'll be a huge factor; but I do think it will be one.  Especially if they're not upfront about the musical elements in the marketing.  

 

It's not so much I think there will be a revolt over it so much as a level of resistance.

 

Mind, I also think there will be folks who will show up for the irony/incredulity of a "Joker musical" which will help offset it a bit.  But the GA has still shown a... hesitancy to musicals lately and I think that should be factored in as a possible wildcard.

 

[AniNate]

I think the biggest liability is just potential sequelitis. The musical conceit does make it superficially more interesting, but it also could just be glossing over a lack of any other novel ideas. I think a drop is inevitable because I don't see how it can replicate the buzz of the first one, but I think at least high 200s are likely if reviews are on par with the first or better.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I think the biggest liability is just potential sequelitis. The musical conceit does make it superficially more interesting, but it also could just be glossing over a lack of any other novel ideas. I think a drop is inevitable because I don't see how it can replicate the buzz of the first one, but I think at least high 200s are likely if reviews are on par with the first or better.

Plus are they going to be able to replicate the buzz fueled by  the overblown controversy for the first movie.  

[Legion Again]

Hmm, I guess Panda could kill gap 🤔

[justnumbers]

On 3/10/2024 at 7:26 AM, emoviefan said:

If we played a drinking game every time you mention that Guardians 3 would have done 200 million + in May 2022 would all died of liver failure by now. Multiverse of Madness was coming off Spider Man NWH and still only did 187 in that slot. Guardians would have probably done the same but had much better legs with much better reception. 

Dude is so desperate to be right about that and willing to die on that hypothetical.

Kinda crazy.

[dudalb]

On 3/10/2024 at 5:29 PM, Porthos said:

 

I do worry a bit about the Musical Penalty, FWIW.  Each of the last three releases that were pseudo stealth musicals all got hit with a penalty for not putting it in the marketing, with only Wonka really being able to overcome it via WOM.

 

Not that I think it'll be a huge factor; but I do think it will be one.  Especially if they're not upfront about the musical elements in the marketing.  

 

It's not so much I think there will be a revolt over it so much as a level of resistance.

 

Mind, I also think there will be folks who will show up for the irony/incredulity of a "Joker musical" which will help offset it a bit.  But the GA has still shown a... hesitancy to musicals lately and I think that should be factored in as a possible wildcard.

 

So do I. I am fascinated to see if they can pull a comic book musical off,  but ,let's face it, a lot of the core CBM crowd will be turned off. ANd the subject matter might be too dark for the usual musical crowd. It could fall between to chairs.

I would hate to have to predict this one. It could do over 300 Million dollars, it could also struggle to reach 200.

[dudalb]

On 3/10/2024 at 5:58 PM, AniNate said:

I think the biggest liability is just potential sequelitis. The musical conceit does make it superficially more interesting, but it also could just be glossing over a lack of any other novel ideas. I think a drop is inevitable because I don't see how it can replicate the buzz of the first one, but I think at least high 200s are likely if reviews are on par with the first or better.

ANd is a conceit that alot of the core comic book fans might have a hard time with.