Weekend Thread | October 7-10th | Smile grins with a powerful $18.5m second weekend (18% drop!), Lyle hums a tune to $11.4m, Amsterdam gets karma'd with $6.4m

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Smile - 5.4
Lyle - 3.4
Amsterdam - 2.6

Smile down only -13% from its true Friday last week ?! 
 

That’s insane. And fully deserved. 
 

I did say all along that I thought Smile would breakout. I just thought it would be a huge opening, not crazy strong legs. 

[Grebacio]

 

[Nikostar]

2 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

 

Just embarrassing 

[Valonqar]

Smile Laughs Off Lyle

[YM!]

54 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Definitely not going to ease the industry's concerns that families have abandoned the multiplex after two years of kids movies from all studios pivoting to streaming, especially when the only overperformers this year (Sonic and Minions) did so thanks to a surprisingly high non-family turnout.

Bad Guys also did well ($96m/$230m on a 60-80m budget is pretty great) because Universal really pushed for theatrical they’re arguably the leaders in theatrical animation now (Mario will likely do $300m+, Puss 2, Trolls 3, and Migration seem to have a shot at $200m+) and tbh if Turning Red released in March it’d have done 150m+. The problem isn’t family abandoning the multiplex but rather most of the films have been unappealing or have been screwed by Disney+.
 

Lightyear would’ve flopped either way because it was mediocre and unappealing (it’s hard to sell animated action for some reason) but if it released on the Plus say October or November, honestly it would’ve been more similar to Cars 3 than barely missing 120m, (hell if TR was theatrical in the first place, I don’t think Lightyear would’ve been hurt as bad either), Strange World will likely be a causality because of Disney+ and the animated action/sci-fi curse as well. Super Pets also looked like a cheap knockoff of Secret Life of Pets and Warner Animation Group and Warner Bros on a larger scale have been historically bad with family films (tbh I’m kind of concerned about Barbie and to a lesser extent Wonka due to that history.) Also, not much family films have been released this year in 2019 and before that.

 

2023 will be a solid rebound though with lots of animation spread out. Mario Bros is obviously going to win the year with Trolls 3 and Migration seeming like solid money makers, if Across isn’t sent to slaughter and Sony is wise enough to get it the fuck out of June it should do 200m+ otherwise 150m+, Elemental if it has strong reviews and insists on a theatrical release (the poster so far is a promising indication they’re trying to correct this) I think it could do 150m-200m, if Disney doesn’t pull a Lightyear with Wish and instead focus on the original story on not some “it’s the same star from all other IP” bullshit it too could do 150m-200m, and Mutant Mayhem while I’m thinking moreso $50m-$70m with the rebound Paramount has had it could get lucky and do $90m-$110m.

[filmlover]

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N

TÁR

Focus Features

$64,000

4

$16,000

$64,000

1

 

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Friday October 7, 2022 (the-numbers.com)

[Grebacio]

Deadline updates

Lyle - 3.5 on Friday

Amsterdam - 2.6 on Friday

 

 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/10/box-office-lyle-lyle-crocodile-amsterdam-margot-robbie-1235138175/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Wonder how Triangle of Sadness is doing.

 

TAR is off to a fine start.

[Valonqar]

that's awful PTA for TAR.

[Eric Prime]

I guess Smile really is a rip-off of The Ring after all!

[filmlover]

Just now, Valonqar said:

that's awful PTA for TAR.

Not really, it's pretty good actually. Should be about $40K PTA for the weekend, which I think that only puts it behind Licorice Pizza and Everything Everywhere among specialty PTA launches since COVID began.

[TwoMisfits]

20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Smile down only -13% from its true Friday last week ?! 
 

That’s insane. And fully deserved. 
 

I did say all along that I thought Smile would breakout. I just thought it would be a huge opening, not crazy strong legs. 

 

Helps to be the only horror around in October...and it helps to be a good horror movie in October...

 

It will probably take a nose dive vs Halloween next weekend, but 2 nice weekends are 2 nice weekends...

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

 

 

[Grebacio]

 

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not really, it's pretty good actually. Should be about $40K PTA for the weekend, which I think that only puts it behind Licorice Pizza and Everything Everywhere among specialty PTA launches since COVID began.

 

Ah OK. It's good in that context.

[TwoMisfits]

Families have abandoned Lyle, Lyle...this is awful for family demo...

https://deadline.com/2022/10/box-office-lyle-lyle-crocodile-amsterdam-margot-robbie-1235138175/

Those buying tickets for Lyle, Lyle aren’t complaining at 4 stars and 80% positive and 62% recommend on ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. Kids under 12 are more bullish at 88%. Demos are 54% women, 46% men with close to half the audience under 25 and the largest quadrant being 18-24 year olds at 33%. Diversity demos were 47% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, & 20% Asian/Other with the best plays for the pic being in the South, South Central, and Midwest. 

 

So, if it's 48% under 25 (with the "close to half") and yes, 18-24s are 33% of that, under 18's are only 15% at best, and some of those are teens...so, probably 10% at best for 12 and unders...

 

This is a movie that did not draw out its 10 and under base at all...especially with the total BO only $11M for the weekend.  I mean, it is kinda a "subscribers saw this just to see something" type of demo return...

[Maggie]

Smile is doing so good. Bring back Jim Gianopolus

[TwoMisfits]

And Amsterdam made up the older base of subscribers...also from Deadline...

 

"Pic skewed toward men at 56% with the largest demo being 25-34 at 37%. Diversity demos were 57% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, and 14% Asian/other. Men over 25 at 47%, and women over 25 at 37% gave Amsterdam its best response at 75%, but the rest of the audience wasn’t on board, i.e. men and women under 25 who each showed up at 9% respectively gave the movie a 61% and 55% grade." 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

And Deadline estimates do have the weekend at almost a dead heat for Smile = Lyle Lyle + Amsterdam.  That's a truly sad weekend for the openers, b/c it's not like Smile is making $40M or something this weekend...