Weekend Thread | October 7-10th | Smile grins with a powerful $18.5m second weekend (18% drop!), Lyle hums a tune to $11.4m, Amsterdam gets karma'd with $6.4m

[Potiki]

34 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But this graphic isn't technically "who watches movies on tv vs at the movies", it's "how do folks watch their tv"...and of course, whites would overindex with cable over streaming b/c they overindex by age, and the older you are, the more likely you're still using cable and vice versa...

I think minorities over index in both theatrical and home viewership, I was more taking exception with the original post by @M37 that stated White people are by far the largest share of streaming subscriptions and thus that is the reason they are the weakest movie going demographic when that isn't is the case and that statistics don't back that up. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Potiki said:

I think minorities over index in both theatrical and home viewership, I was more taking exception with the original post by @M37 that stated White people are by far the largest share of streaming subscriptions and thus that is the reason they are the weakest movie going demographic when that isn't is the case and that statistics don't back that up. 

Hmm, do we actually have demographic statistics on subscribers to streaming services?

 

https://nscreenmedia.com/streaming-user-demographics-top-4-services/

Disney+ seems to be pretty white.  

Edited October 9, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Potiki]

34 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Hmm, do we actually have demographic statistics on subscribers to streaming services?

 

https://nscreenmedia.com/streaming-user-demographics-top-4-services/

Disney+ seems to be pretty white.  

That would most likely be outdated there was a significant jump in streaming uses by all age groups from May 2021 to May 2022:

 

 

Here is a year end breakdown for subscription video (Online Subscription) year end 2021 in the THEME report by MPAA that also shows Whites under index:

 

 

source: https://www.mpa-apac.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/MPA-2021-THEME-Report-FINAL.pdf

 

In terms of breaking down the original article I posted, there was another statistic of traditional TV viewership:

 

 

3 hours ago, Potiki said:

The White population actually under index compared to every other demographic in terms of streaming.

 

 

source: https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/lets-talk-about-streaming-and-engaging-the-latino-audience/

Using the statistics from both graphs above and converting Hours into minutes:

 

US total population is (1454/56) x 34.8 = 903.557143

Hispanic population is (925/43.1) x 43.6 = 935.730858

 

Historically the Black population has over indexed in television viewership, although take it with a massive grain of salt because this data is outdated:

 

 

source: https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2020/multicultural-consumers-are-streaming-content-more-than-ever-as-social-distancing-continues/

 

But Live TV+Shifted TV (Cable+Broadcast) was 5.5-6 hours for Black audiences in 2018/2019 vs. roughly 4 hours for White audiences if that split stayed similar over these last few years would mean Black audiences stream more minutes per month also. 

 

Asian audiences are the one who are probably below White audiences in streaming viewership but they are also the audiences most hesitant to return to cinemas (so that would imply streaming usage and theatrical attendance correlate or at worst are a non-impact): 

 

 

source: https://www.mpa-apac.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/MPA-2021-THEME-Report-FINAL.pdf

 

Hopefully that will change though and titles like Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and Turning Red that seem to actively target Asian-American (mainly East and SouthEast) seems to be working: 

 

Quote

Disney’s Turning Red, which was originally released direct to consumers in the U.S. on Disney+, highlights both the power of representational content and co-viewing. The family-friendly movie about a young girl coming of age struck a chord with AANHPI audiences of all ages. The movie was among the most streamed titles in first-quarter 2022¹, and drew a multigenerational Asian audience far exceeding the average audience

 

Source: https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/for-aanhpi-audiences-streaming-brings-families-together/

 

Sorry for the wall of links, graphs and texts but I think it safe to say in the last year+ with titles like Squid Game, Encanto, Ms. Marvel, The Harder They Fall, Reservation Dogs plus many many more I'm likely forgetting that demographics have probably gotten more diverse. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, Potiki said:

The White population actually under index compared to every other demographic in terms of streaming.

 

 

source: https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/lets-talk-about-streaming-and-engaging-the-latino-audience/

Have to be careful with overall US population demo numbers, as the white population overall is much older, and the olds who don’t stream is going to bring that overall ratio way down 

 

Among the younger (<45/50), more frequent/potential theatrical audience, it’s an overindex. Particularly when focusing on the Disney/HBO/even Peacock subs, which have been pushing their streaming at the expense of theatrical. Netflix, which was (not sure if it still is) the largest service, is more of alternative to cable, less so a direct impact to theaters

[Krissykins]

Smile’s excellent WOM isn’t US only either. 
 

Here in the UK, Friday was up +50% on last week and Saturday was up +18% versus first weekend. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

@charlie Jatinder just posted an early $7.5M Saturday number for Smile on the Telegram group.

[CJohn]

5.4 + 7.5 + 5 = 17.9M

 

Crazy. Absolutely crazy. Might stay above 10M against Halloween next weekend.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

5.4 + 7.5 + 5 = 17.9M

 

Crazy. Absolutely crazy. Might stay above 10M against Halloween next weekend.

$10M+ should easily happen, especially since Halloween is starting to feel like an underperformer in waiting now that its thunder as the main movie for spooky season has been stolen.

[Legion Again]

Probably just 18.5 then, rip 19 trend

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

My PT knows I am into films. For reference his favourite film stars are The Rock, Vin Diesel and 90s Nicolas Cage.

 

The only films he has, unprompted, told me he wants to see in 4 years of training with him "because they look good" are Hobbs and Shaw, Fast 9, and Smile.

 

That's some serious mainstream cut-through.

[Eric the IF]

 

[Issac Newton]

Neon's TRIANGLE OF SADNESS - $210k (10 sites) $21k Avg.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

 

Crazy hold. A Quiet Place dropped 34% in its second weekend and went on to have a 3.7x multi. 

 

Get Out dropped 15% and went on to have a 5.22x multi.

 

Sure, the drop against Halloween next weekend is sure to be a least a little steeper, but I wouldn't rule out a 4-4.5 multiplier. Especially since this opened a full month before Halloween (the holiday, not the movie), it has an entire 5 weekends to make cash.

 

By the end of its 5th weekend, Get Out had made 84% of its domestic total. A Quiet Place had made 85% of its total by the end of its 5th weekend. Even if Smile sinks like a rock come November, its run will be close to over anyways. 

 

As long as it doesn't drop something crazy like 60+% next weekend, I would argue that 100M is a fair bet for this.

[Eric the IF]

 

[Flopped]

Is there any real interest in Halloween Ends? Halloween 2018 is quite good but Halloween Kills is so bad and the franchise became a parody of itself. Will people come out to see the "final" entry? Is it tracking/pre-selling well? 

[Eric the IF]

 

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

 

Yuck. Smile is literally the only interesting thing this weekend  (I guess Woman King's holds are fun to watch; that movie is just so good it deserves every penny it's getting).

[Eric the IF]

 

[Eric the IF]

 

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Is there any real interest in Halloween Ends? Halloween 2018 is quite good but Halloween Kills is so bad and the franchise became a parody of itself. Will people come out to see the "final" entry? Is it tracking/pre-selling well? 

Currently it looks like it’s tracking just ahead of Halloween Kills, from what I can gather from the thread. 
 

Could still be a $40m+ opener, despite people not sensing any real interest just now.