TalismanRing Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 14 hours ago, TalismanRing said: $128,258,528 $134,431,341 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 149M imo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED TO NEW ENTRANTS AND UPDATES! Good luck, everyone! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:04 PM, M37 said: $132,370,037 Just going to stealth edit this post (before deadline!) and see who notices 🙂 Updated figure above 😉 Think you can still make a reasonable argument for something higher, up to the ~$150M ($17/18M @ 8.5-9x) range, but the momentum just isn’t there IMO, and I’m hesitant to bet on it suddenly reappearing in some form. Around to slightly above TGM/Batman OW ($130-$140M) just feels like where this is headed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, M37 said: Updated figure above 😉 Think you can still make a reasonable argument for something higher, up to the ~$150M ($17/18M @ 8.5-9x) range, but the momentum just isn’t there IMO, and I’m hesitant to bet on it suddenly reappearing in some form. Around to slightly above TGM/Batman OW ($130-$140M) just feels like where this is headed A fair assessment. Feels like $130-150M is almost a certainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED TO NEW ENTRANTS AND UPDATES! Good luck, everyone! Hey I thought it was open for another 45 minutes as per the lock info lol Anyways my prediction is 157.5m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Agreed, it may have been a typo, but the 1st post says 12 CST, which would be 1pm EST, so anyone should have their picks count for the next 43 minutes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabba'sMoofmilker Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Whats the current consensus on Way of waters final gross? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nero Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Jabba'sMoofmilker said: Whats the current consensus on Way of waters final gross? There's no consensus. Depends on who you ask but general range might be 2B - 3B. Some think less than 2B and few think more than 3B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Hey I thought it was open for another 45 minutes as per the lock info lol Anyways my prediction is 157.5m My thought process was the thread would stay open for a hour even though the club was closed, so people could discuss predictions and all of that. Probably a mistake on my part 😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said: Whats the current consensus on Way of waters final gross? Consensus is hard to come by on a film where legs are still so much in question. Feels like $650M DOM to me though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: A fair assessment. Feels like $130-150M is almost a certainty. 90% CI, I’d agree. Fwiw, had I still been playing the Derby, probably would have gone ~$137 (for reasons), but given this is a closest to/single winner contest, that gap between $128 and $134 was too enticing to pass up planting a flag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jabba'sMoofmilker Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: Consensus is hard to come by on a film where legs are still so much in question. Feels like $650M DOM to me though. that would be pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Alrighty I’ve input the numbers and here’s what we’re looking at… Contestants = 78 Mean = $159,467,995 Median = $157,156,892 Highest = $225M Lowest $100M Good luck everyone! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Hey I thought it was open for another 45 minutes as per the lock info lol Anyways my prediction is 157.5m I accidently pressed 5 instead of 4 there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said: I accidently pressed 5 instead of 4 there. No worries. I updated your prediction to $157.4 million…. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said: No worries. I updated your prediction to $157.4 million…. Thanks! Phew I thought I had massively overpredicted there. The new number is so much better that I am confident of handily winning. Spoiler FWIW I went with 146m in survivor. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Well folks, the contest has officially ended and we have a winner. I'd like to think everyone for participating! I will be running another contest in the near future (probably for GOTG3). The official domestic opening weekend total for Avatar: The Way of Water comes in at $134,100,226 which means that the winner and recipient of one month of premium forum membership coming in only $331,115 off the actual total is.... @TalismanRing!!! 10 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 It should've been me but congrats anyway @TalismanRing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, grey ghost said: It should've been me but congrats anyway @TalismanRing. Honestly, it should have been M37, b/c all their data during the lead up weekdays helped pull down everyone's starting guesses:)... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...