Avatar: The Way of Water -- Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!

[cookie]

15 hours ago, cookie said:

Lowering my predict to $165,095,688

Lowering it again to $155,095,688

[Legion Again]

Is this still supposed to lock midnight wed? The forum auto lock feature seems to be saying 1PM th now.

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Is this still supposed to lock midnight wed? The forum auto lock feature seems to be saying 1PM th now.

It's saying 8 P.M CET Thursday for me.

Edited December 14, 2022 by cookie

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

It's saying 8 P.M CET Thursday for me.

Yeah — the times I referenced were us central but I forgot to specify that in the post 😛 

[TwoMisfits]

On 12/11/2022 at 1:12 PM, TwoMisfits said:

 

Damn, you beat me to this number...sigh.

 

Okay, let me go $18 Thurs x 8x for $144M to let you win anything below..

 

For the exact number, I'll put in Thor's OW - $144,165,107.  Same Disney Caucasian-skewing older fans show up - but it struggles to appeal outside of the corporate and fan demos (of Avatar and Cameron)...

 

EDIT: Do not consider this number, but Caucasian-older-skewing-long-awaited sequel with 3 good days of box office (aka into a Monday holiday) made $126,707,459 on 3 day OW earlier this year - it would be hilarious if they matched...

 

You know, I said I wouldn't change this, but if posters even here who have seen this are going with the "beautiful, but somewhat boring" review (my words, not theirs, but this is a 10 year old's GA version response), that's like a GA killer...I didn't expect to hear anything that even related to "boring" for the movie - rehash, same story beats, yes - can't keep my interest the whole time or doesn't keep my interest for long stretches, no.

 

So, let me take the low for now and go $16.5M * 7x and put in the "even shocking to me" $115.5M - I always saw TGM's OW as the floor, but maybe this being pushed so hard for 3d and having prices raised at the same time finally gets an "enough is enough" reaction from GA.  And again, why not put my mental floor in here - it means I'm less likely to win...which has been the plan from the start.

 

PS - I'm still bitter my locals only have 2 and 2ish screens for 2d - no way am I fighting the crowds for a number of 2d showings that rival really crappy short OW film sets...damn you, 3d!  And no PLF 2d - even more bitter!  And that bitterness might not be just me, especially amongst ALL the D+ subscribers.  Disney's success in streaming might be having an effect on their movies in 2021/2022 - I mean, what movie did they release the last 2 years that blew past tracking vs how many came below initial tracking a week and 48 hours out?  Have they just made some regular GA disappear for their movies through their own success?

 

New official number - $115,543,210 (b/c I like my luggage password)...

Edited December 14, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Liiviig 1998]

$17.5m Thursday 

 

$148,510,387

Edited December 14, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[Skim Beeble]

On 12/11/2022 at 3:13 PM, Skim Beeble said:

$179,577,786

lowering to $151,116,516 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Skim Beeble

[XXR vs XXR]

2 hours ago, Korra Legion said:

Is this still supposed to lock midnight wed? The forum auto lock feature seems to be saying 1PM th now.

 

2 hours ago, Korra Legion said:

Yeah — the times I referenced were us central but I forgot to specify that in the post 😛 

It officially closes at 12PM CST Thursday but I’m leaving it open for an hour after that so we can discuss things or rag on each other for our predictions for an hour  

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

It officially closes at 12PM CST Thursday but I’m leaving it open for an hour after that so we can discuss things or tag on each other for our predictions for an hour  

You're telling me that 12pm is noon, and not midnight? 

 

Damn, my sleep schedule Thursday is gonna be fucked 😛

[M37]

2 hours ago, Korra Legion said:

Is this still supposed to lock midnight wed? The forum auto lock feature seems to be saying 1PM th now.

OP says 12PM Central on Thursday, or 2 hours before first shows on East Coast

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

OP says 12PM Central on Thursday, or 2 hours before first shows on East Coast

[XXR vs XXR]

On 12/12/2022 at 7:09 PM, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Updating my number to $156,422,805

Updating my number to $140,622,815

[Jack]

$151.2m

[Lion Roar]

On 12/11/2022 at 4:42 PM, Lion Roar said:

Let's go for a super lucky $168,888,888

Lowering to $148,888,888

[M37]

4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I really didn't need to see that at 9 o'clock in the morning

 

Also, for those that care, my official guess will be changing - just haven't yet decided how much lower to go (though I don't think even I can drop as low @TwoMisfits)

[Shanks]

$147,787,040 

 

Just Because with those numbers, it will be 28th Highest OW just like How Avatar 1 was back in 2009.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Shanks

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really didn't need to see that at 9 o'clock in the morning

 

Also, for those that care, my official guess will be changing - just haven't yet decided how much lower to go (though I don't think even I can drop as low @TwoMisfits)

 

I mean, I have been in your Avatar club since day 1...and I said TGM would win the DOM year since June 1...so I might be a little more pessimistic than the average bear for this movie:).  

 

I'm like Eeyore for this thread - you should be like Rabbit:)...

[Legion Again]

9 hours ago, Korra Legion said:

Alright, alright, I hereby bow before the powers of the big willie and issue a formal apology to @M37 for name gimmick IP theft.   
 

It is only right that I should indulge in name gimmickry using my own name instead.

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Sorry boys, this some Mandate of Heaven shit:

$125,791,514

 

 

TY @Cap for first reaction on my masterpiece

[Cap]

126,707,458

[titanic2187]

$166,164,123