Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, XXR Also in Boots said:

OS is doing very well for ATWOW. We might see $850M WW through Sunday on its strength though it probably more like $835-840M.

OS was always a given. My question is for how long. If things haven’t changed that much, China usually burns out fast. It goes without saying that how A2 will behave OS is the biggest question mark of it’s run right now.

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

OS is doing very well for ATWOW. We might see $850M WW through Sunday on its strength though it'll probably be more like $835-840M.

With Christmas week still to come too.

It could quite easily be around 1.2-1.3bil WW by the end of New Years weekend.

[cookie]

Hoping PiB can recover to a $20m+ NYE 3-day if this weekend only ends up at $15m.

[LinksterAC]

25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Between PIB2 and A2, the theaterical business outlook does look grim to me. It is not like PIB2 surprise while A2 disappoint, it is the two biggest movie of season going soft.

 

Don't tell me about the weather, sometime when a business lost, they are gone. Latter means never with the short amount of theatrical window, 

It's funny, coming out of the pandemic we had NWH & TGM do such huge business I was really optimistic about what the BO would look like going forward. But the rest of the year has been discouraging. I ascribed some of that to the MCU tentpoles not landing with audiences (especially Thor), but A2 is a litmus test.

 

That said, weather is a huge confounder here.

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

OS was always a given. My question is for how long. If things haven’t changed that much, China usually burns out fast. It goes without saying that how A2 will behave OS is the biggest question mark of it’s run right now.

China isn't doing all that well due to covid anyway. Looking fairly backloaded OS for now esp. SK.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

It's funny, coming out of the pandemic we had NWH & TGM do such huge business I was really optimistic about what the BO would look like going forward. But the rest of the year has been discouraging. I ascribed some of that to the MCU tentpoles not landing with audiences (especially Thor), but A2 is a litmus test.

 

That said, weather is a huge confounder here.

What A2 is making or what BPWF, DSMoM and TL&T doesn’t mean that the future or box office is grim. I do think that 2023 is very interesting and I’d argue that the live action films to watch closely other than Quantumania, Guardians, Vol. 3 is Indiana Jones. I’m very intrigued with that one and I think getting Mangold to direct was an excellent move.

[Madhuvan]

A2 doing so much better in OS

 

Guess we will have to wait till next week to say anything about US performance atp cause there are so many variables in play rn.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

What A2 is making or what BPWF, DSMoM and TL&T doesn’t mean that the future or box office is grim. I do think that 2023 is very interesting and I’d argue that the live action films to watch closely other than Quantumania, Guardians, Vol. 3 is Indiana Jones. I’m very intrigued with that one and I think getting Mangold to direct was an excellent move.

Huge fan of the first 3 Indy movies, but how many people actually want to see a 80yo Indy mumbl;ing through his lines?.

 

I'll be surprised if this beats Crystal Skuul domestic. Internationally it could do more.

[JWR]

I do not look forward to the meltdowns if Super Mario isn't hitting $1B like so many of these predictions are saying.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Huge fan of the first 3 Indy movies, but how many people actually want to see a 80yo Indy mumbl;ing through his lines?.

 

I'll be surprised if this beats Crystal Skuul domestic. Internationally it could do more.

I agree that Crystal Skull was a mistake. But we are still very much on a nostalgia heavy environment. I think this Indy has the potential of truly becoming Indy’s Logan. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The international numbers should make Disney very happy. I wonder if they'll reward us foreigners with an earlier release for the next movie.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

I agree that Crystal Skull was a mistake. But we are still very much on a nostalgia heavy environment. I think this Indy has the potential of truly becoming Indy’s Logan. 

Well i hope he doesnt die!.

 

I mean i am a bit excited for the film, its just at 65 with Crystal Skull, 65 isnt THAT old in todays day and age, 80 though. I just dont want ti to look like stunt men with Fords face plastered over them, if yuo get me.

 

Still the film would have to be pretty bad to be worse than Crystal Skull ,so it has that in its favour.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Well i hope he doesnt die!.

 

I mean i am a bit excited for the film, its just at 65 with Crystal Skull, 65 isnt THAT old in todays day and age, 80 though. I just dont want ti to look like stunt men with Fords face plastered over them, if yuo get me.

 

Still the film would have to be pretty bad to be worse than Crystal Skull ,so it has that in its favour.

I mean the dude is about to Hulk out and become the Red Hulk in the MCU. He still flies his planes to LA’s terror. If anyone can pull these kinds of stunts at that age, it’s Ford.

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The international numbers should make Disney very happy. I wonder if they'll reward us foreigners with an earlier release for the next movie.

Dont forget even the first film only had a 27% domestic take vs 73% international.

So far it looks like A2 will have a similar result, possibly even a wider split.

[NCsoft]

28 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

If A2 doesn't recover from the snowstorm domestically, we could see something ridiculous like a 20/80 Dom/OS split.

I propose we banish America to Disney+ for Avatar 3 as they're not worthy

Imagine how crazy that dom\os ratio be if it doesn't have a depressed China market, and with a normal exchange rate...

[NCsoft]

26 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

With Christmas week still to come too.

It could quite easily be around 1.2-1.3bil WW by the end of New Years weekend.

 

That's good, have to say though in my mind before the opening weekend I had it surpassing TGM worldwide by the time new year comes.

[wboxoffice]

So I guess this is disappointing for Puss in Boots 2 and not very promising for the other debuts this week especially with the bad weather in many big cities...

Edited December 22, 2022 by wboxoffice

[JWR]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Oh, I get the games are popular, but I was reticent on its power of drawing THAT many people to a theatrical release (DM grew tremendously from the first movie, off the back of annoying yellow creatures that created an insane following - my question is whether that in-built following for Mario will show up in cinemas). But if it does 800+...great, more likely it can bring life back to theatrical animation.

 

It's still a video game adaptation, which limits its reach to some degree. 

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

That's good, have to say though in my mind before the opening weekend I had it surpassing TGM worldwide by the time new year comes.

Yeah i had it around 1.5bil after New Years in my orig 2.5+bil finish. Although i did have China at 600--800mil in that run too so.

 

We have to take what we can get under current circumstances.

[THUNDER BIRD]

10 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Imagine how crazy that dom\os ratio be if it doesn't have a depressed China market, and with a normal exchange rate...

15/85 lol or even something more ridiculous.