Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[ThomasNicole]

Deadline said Disney rivals are seeing 63M 3-day which would be 28.5M Sunday... Seems possible 

 

And i don't think tomorrow will just stay flat, i think what we're seeing is just a proof that the lenghty runtime hurted the numbers on normal days (and the storms messed things even more), but now that people can go even in later shows, the jumps will be great unlike the past days going below R1

 

If today ended up being 28.5M, i think tomorrow can be 34-35M 

[Reddroast]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

IronJimbo and his 12 accounts sure have been quiet lately. 🤔

What are the others

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I know everyone here is excited about the upcoming holiday numbers for Avatar, but im even more curious about its numbers post New Years weekend. Rogue One pretty much stumbled away at the end but with literally 0 competition besides a cute little doll, Avatar 2 has a clean slate for itself for quite a long time.

 

NWH made about $183M post Jan 3. My target for A2 is $140M. Anything over that is just juice. 

[Cap]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

[and by extension the Dec 27th drop]

I am doing my part to keep that drop to a minimum. Because that’s when I’m taking my aunt to see it.

 

Spoiler

We’re going in 2D and the tickets are five dollars, but still we are contributing!!

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I know everyone here is excited about the upcoming holiday numbers for Avatar, but im even more curious about its numbers post New Years weekend. Rogue One pretty much stumbled away at the end but with literally 0 competition besides a cute little doll, Avatar 2 has a clean slate for itself for quite a long time.

 

I was going over the december-january 2016-2017 calendar this morning and was surprised to see how much competition rogue one had, it was packed and there was something for everyone, not surprised it sputtered out so quickly

Edited December 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

What are the others

 

hey

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

Suffice it to say that I'm now very interested to see the numbers for today. 

 

14.5

[JustLurking]

34 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

I also suspect today will be about 10-15% bigger than R1 Sunday but tomorrow will be basically flat with R1 Monday.

 

But if I'm wrong and tomorrow also jumps 20-25% over Sunday like R1 did then....

 

I mean - christmas and boxing day could easily overperform even relatively to what they normally would have done just off bounced demand from thu/fri/sat from the storm. Just because the A2 drop came in decent regardless doesn't suddenly cancel out the storm.

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

hey

 

7 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

What are the others

 

ok, being serious for a moment

 

the confirmed list is

Kayom, Disney,  Stuart, Jimbo, NCsoft, Dan, Dignam, Hw64

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

I mean - christmas and boxing day could easily overperform even relatively to what they normally would have done just off bounced demand from thu/fri/sat from the storm. Just because the A2 drop came in decent regardless doesn't suddenly cancel out the storm.

 

If the over-performance on Christmas and potentially Boxing Day is the all from the storm then that'll bear out with bigger drops during the week. We should know everything we need to by January 3rd. 

[JustLurking]

Just now, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

If the over-performance on Christmas and potentially Boxing Day is the all from the storm then that'll bear out with bigger drops during the week. We should know everything we need to by January 3rd. 

Pretty much. I wouldn't get hyped over legs until we're sure it's not just storm shenanigans (although if sunday and monday come in very big, that's a lot of bounced demand from the weekend, so you could still make the argument that 2nd weekend holding so well was already a sign of legs I guess).

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

We should know everything we need to by January 3rd. 

 

this wasnt the way I expected things to go (I say as a hide my 1 billion domestic hat), but this really is a lot of fun

Edited December 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

this wasnt the way I expected things to go (I say as a hide my 1 billion domestic hat), but this really is a lot of fun

 

Indeed, and thanks for the list of accounts to ban.

 

[Dragoncaine]

29 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

 

The Avatar estimate is a joke, yea. It's off by at least $6M and potentially quite a bit more.

PiB may be off by a bit but they estimated +70% Sunday vs ATWOW +43% and +70% is a fairly normal Christmas increase over Christmas Eve. Might go up by another $500-750K. 

Wow, so your A2 data is pointing to at least a $27.5m Sunday?

[Krissykins]

Horrific for everything apart from Violent Night lol

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

Wow, so your A2 data is pointing to at least a $27.5m Sunday?

 

I don't want to say anything absolute but yes, the data I've seen tells me $27.5M is a safe enough number to estimate. 

 

[M37]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd say "I'm surprised", except I've been banging the "Wait for Xmas to truly judge" drum for so long that I got a new pair of batons as a prezzie today to replace my worn out set. 

 

(the real tell is the Boxing Day jump [and by extension the Dec 27th drop] as alluded to by @M37, but one thing at a time )

Tuesday probably won’t be all that helpful, as Avatwo was a more Tuesday friendly film (the only day it’s bested RO so far, and I’d expect the same again this week) 

 

Monday might be somewhat informative only if it’s a big increase (pulling ahead of RO), so really Wed ($18M) is probably the next standalone head-to-head checkpoint IMO

[aabattery]

30 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

IronJimbo and his 12 accounts sure have been quiet lately. 🤔

 

we've been busy watching avatar on repeat

[Reddroast]

22 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

 

ok, being serious for a moment

 

the confirmed list is

Kayom, Disney,  Stuart, Jimbo, NCsoft, Dan, Dignam, Hw64

 

 

Your not a Bot. But I remember Disney posting on my club. Are you telling me Jimbo's has been doing this for MONTHS?!

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

If the over-performance on Christmas and potentially Boxing Day is the all from the storm then that'll bear out with bigger drops during the week. We should know everything we need to by January 3rd. 

I think it's not the case because SAT was during the storm and it still had a very tiny drop, way less than R1. 

 

We know it's deflated at some degree, but i think if SUN numbers being so high was just because of the storm passing, we probably would've seen a bad drop on SAT (which was amazing) and FRI jump would be awful (and ended up decent).

 

IMO the signs over the weekend are pointing today performance it's not just balancing the storms effects. But totally agreed, we'll only know for sure after NYD.