Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

The most you can reasonably hope for through Monday, January 2nd is probably around $440m, which would be around $140m from this Tuesday to next Monday inclusive (Rogue One did about $110m in that period).

 

That's $80m above Avatar's $360m at the same point, and Avatar itself made a further $390m. Avatar 2 would need to make $310m, or 80% of Avatar for the rest of its run to reach Avatar's first-run gross, and $345m, or nearly 90% of Avatar for the rest of its run to reach its overall domestic total of $785m. And that's coming off of a third weekend that's ostensibly going to be quite a bit lower than Avatar's $68.5m (albeit with a worse calendar configuration than Avatar, with NYE on the Saturday).

 

Either which way you slice it, it's just not feasible.

Avatar got a 76m 4 day for the 3rd weekend, which A2 can beat.

Do you think it's feasible Tuesday 2nd for A2 could come in over $8m?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, M37 said:

And you were at 530-560 a few days ago, so that’s a ~10% ($50M+) bump off a single holiday result 

 

When the weekend is 20% higher than your prediction (53.5 IIRC for you) it would be weird to not make some kind of adjustment. There's no way the end point can be the same as you thought it would be. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

You also said you did a lot of research into that 190m ow 👀

 

Obviously, the opening weekend coming in so low put my club in jeopardy right out the gateOO, but shit happens 🤷‍♂️

 

That's actually why I didn't make a play in it...I had an idea for overall box office, but not how that would break down (aka, I didn't know how motivated everyone would be to get their views early vs later)...

[MovieMan89]

Really eager to see if it can go as high as 40 today. First day since last Tuesday (when it had an incredible hold) where weather really shouldn’t be a factor anymore. 

[redfirebird2008]

@IronJimbo Since you don't like the Rogue One comparison I did earlier, here is a comparison with Avatar 1 based on 10-day totals and the remaining dollar gross the rest of the way. Avatar 1 made $750M before a re-release many months later added another $10-11M to the total. I'm using $760M for the numbers below, which means $547M in the rest of Avatar 1's run. 

 

To reach $750M, Avatar 2 needs to stay above 89% of Avatar 1's daily gross.

To reach $700M, Avatar 2 needs to stay above 80% of Avatar 1's daily gross. 

To reach $650M, Avatar 2 needs to stay above 71% of Avatar 1's daily gross.

To reach $600M, Avatar 2 needs to stay above 62% of Avatar 1's daily gross. 

To reach $550M, Avatar 2 needs to stay above 53% of Avatar 1's daily gross. 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by redfirebird2008

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really eager to see if it can go as high as 40 today.

 

I would get a number like that out of your head now or you're just gonna be disappointed. 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I would get a number like that out of your head now or you're just gonna be disappointed. 

 

You mean kind of like how you would have said that about Sundays number? Not gonna get an increase like that out of my head until we see where it’s going from here. 

[hw64]

48 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

440 Is not “the most you can hope for” when it doesn’t even give it RO holds.

 

Edited to $450, but the point still stands.

 

The problem, again, is that you're extrapolating based off of a single anomalous day (i.e. Christmas Day), which you should never do. If Avatar 2 has Rogue One holds off of a $30m Christmas Day then it'll make $142m Tue-Mon this week, but that's contingent on a $37.2m Boxing Day which Avatar 2 is not likely to hit. And if it doesn't hit that number, then the entire analysis pretty much breaks down.

 

Overall, $140-$150m Tue-Mon isn't completely inconceivable but it's at the very top-end of what can reasonably be achieved. On the other hand, $475m by the end of next Monday, i.e. $175m+ Tue-Mon this week, is just absurd. That's something like $80m Tue-Thu for a $27m weekday average, then a $75m third weekend (a big increase from the second), and then a $20m Monday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that's possible unless you're attaching far too much weight to the Christmas Day number.

Edited December 26, 2022 by hw64

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You mean kind of like how you would have said that about Sundays number? Not gonna get an increase like that out of my head until we see where it’s going from here. 

 

 

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

I would get a number like that out of your head now or you're just gonna be disappointed. 

 

My 25-30mil average for the 4 Xmas weekdays should be fine though right?.

I think so.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

My 25-30mil average for the 4 Xmas weekdays should be fine though right?.

I think so.

average 23m or so i reckon

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Edited to $450, but the point still stands.

 

The problem, again, is that you're extrapolating based off of a single anomalous day (i.e. Christmas Day), which you should never do. If Avatar 2 has Rogue One holds off of a $30m Christmas Day then it'll make $142m Tue-Mon this week, but that also includes a $37.2m Boxing Day which Avatar 2 is not likely to hit.

 

Overall, $140-$150m Tue-Mon isn't inconceivable but it's at the very top-end of what you should be expecting. On the other hand, $475m by the end of next Monday, i.e. $175m Tue-Mon this week, is just absurd. That's something like $80m Tue-Thu for a $27m weekday average, then a $75m third weekend (a big increase from the second), and then a $20m Monday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that's possible.

 

Good analysis. FTR, I think Mon-Mon will be very close to R1's numbers during the same timeframe (+/- 5%).

 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Edited to $450, but the point still stands.

 

The problem, again, is that you're extrapolating based off of a single anomalous day (i.e. Christmas Day), which you should never do. If Avatar 2 has Rogue One holds off of a $30m Christmas Day then it'll make $142m Tue-Mon this week, but that's contingent on a $37.2m Boxing Day which Avatar 2 is not likely to hit.

 

Overall, $140-$150m Tue-Mon isn't inconceivable but it's at the very top-end of what you should be expecting. On the other hand, $475m by the end of next Monday, i.e. $175m Tue-Mon this week, is just absurd. That's something like $80m Tue-Thu for a $27m weekday average, then a $75m third weekend (a big increase from the second), and then a $20m Monday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that's possible.

 

I do think we need to be cautious. If you think some of the days (Thursday to Saturday) were heavily impacted by weather, then Christmas Sunday might have had extra boost from this. Could even be as much as $5M extra from lost activity over the earlier days. 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

 

Absolutely I do. A reminder of the kind of things you've got to achieve to reach that $390m:

• A $50m fourth weekend;
• A $43m fifth weekend (-15%);
• A $35m sixth weekend (-18%);
• A $31m seventh weekend (-10%);
• A $23m eighth weekend (-27%);
• A $23.5m ninth weekend (+3%)

Top Gun: Maverick was Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar was Top Gun: Maverick on steroids, but Avatar 2 is neither Top Gun: Maverick nor Avatar. And even with Avatar-level word-of-mouth which Avatar 2 doesn't have, being able to replicate these kind of legs in a post-COVID world would still be unlikely for a myriad of other reasons — too much has changed since 2009.

Plus, it was a much better movie. I say that having largely loved TWOW, but honestly not even close. 
 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

My 25-30mil average for the 4 Xmas weekdays should be fine though right?.

I think so.

 

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

average 23m or so i reckon

 

Jimbo's number should be closer but if your average does happen then it would be a very strong week. 

 

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Edited to $450, but the point still stands.

 

The problem, again, is that you're extrapolating based off of a single anomalous day (i.e. Christmas Day), which you should never do. If Avatar 2 has Rogue One holds off of a $30m Christmas Day then it'll make $142m Tue-Mon this week, but that also includes a $37.2m Boxing Day which Avatar 2 is not likely to hit.

 

Overall, $140-$150m Tue-Mon isn't inconceivable but it's at the very top-end of what you should be expecting. On the other hand, $475m by the end of next Monday, i.e. $175m Tue-Mon this week, is just absurd. That's something like $80m Tue-Thu for a $27m weekday average, then a $75m third weekend (a big increase from the second), and then a $20m Monday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that's possible.

I said 475 would be a best case from here, not what I was predicting. And do the math again bc it most certainly does not need a 75m 3rd weekend to get there, you’re drastically undershooting the ceiling of what’s possible on the weekdays. Could do it with a 65m 3rd weekend or so (not predicting that rn). Let’s see todays hold for starters. 

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I do think we need to be cautious. If you think some of the days (Thursday to Saturday) were heavily impacted by weather, then Christmas Sunday might have had extra boost from this. Could even be as much as $5M extra from lost activity over the earlier days. 

Why wouldn’t it stand to reason then though that the whole week will be inflated from a deflated 5 days? Especially since today is really the first day we can finally say weather shouldn’t be a factor at all? 

[Alexdube]

Jimbo did it again in SK, gravity defying numbers

 

1st Sunday $7,505,041
2nd Sunday $7,548,469

 

In France the 2nd weekend drop is 1%

 

Some of you are drawing conclusions wait too quickly. Maybe because you've been tracking too many superhero movies where everything is decided in the first few days? We still have no idea what the legs will be like domestically because of the storm completely screwing with things. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Alexdube

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why wouldn’t it stand to reason then though that the whole week will be inflated from a deflated 5 days? Especially since today is really the first day we can finally say weather shouldn’t be a factor at all? 

And that’s fine. What I am saying is it might not be sustainable long term. Temporary boost is nice, but it’s not bad to be cautious. Will be interesting to see how it goes.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

You mean kind of like how you would have said that about Sundays number? Not gonna get an increase like that out of my head until we see where it’s going from here. 

Except that's not what we were saying about Sunday's number. It was looking at 30+ for pretty much the whole day, in fact it looked like it would end up higher than the 29.5 that ended up coming in. 

 

For today would initially guess 30-33

Edited December 26, 2022 by Menor Reborn