Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Seems like that applies to Puss in Boots way more than Avatar 2. 

Umm… neither of those are the movie that that headline would be about

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Correct. @M37 had some good math on it yesterday I believe that should point us in the $115-130M range. 

I really hope you all are right about this.

[Deep Wang]

19 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Seems like that applies to Puss in Boots way more than Avatar 2. 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/box-office-christmas-avatar-way-of-water-babylon-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-1235205786/

 

Christmas Delivers Box Office Miracle For ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water‘ Despite Winter Weather: James Cameron Sequel Headed To $95M-$96M+ 2nd Weekend

 

MONDAY PM: Per rival distribution sources –not Disney– Avatar: The Way of Water is +8% to +10% over Sunday’s $29.5M which means a $31.9M to $32.4M Monday which means a $95.9M to $96.4M 4-day weekend. At the high-end, that could beat Rogue One‘s 4-day second weekend of $96.1M. Sequel’s revised cume at the high end would be $294.1M.

While CNN reports that the nationwide death toll is 49 from the severe winter storm, with 27 of those from Erie County, NY, the warmest box office marketplace in the country remains…Los Angeles at 80 degrees today, but with expected rain tomorrow at 63 degrees.

[Alex SciChannel]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/box-office-christmas-avatar-way-of-water-babylon-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-1235205786/

 

Christmas Delivers Box Office Miracle For ‘Avatar: The Way Of Water‘ Despite Winter Weather: James Cameron Sequel Headed To $95M-$96M+ 2nd Weekend

 

MONDAY PM: Per rival distribution sources –not Disney– Avatar: The Way of Water is +8% to +10% over Sunday’s $29.5M which means a $31.9M to $32.4M Monday which means a $95.9M to $96.4M 4-day weekend. At the high-end, that could beat Rogue One‘s 4-day second weekend of $96.1M. Sequel’s revised cume at the high end would be $294.1M.

While CNN reports that the nationwide death toll is 49 from the severe winter storm, with 27 of those from Erie County, NY, the warmest box office marketplace in the country remains…Los Angeles at 80 degrees today, but with expected rain tomorrow at 63 degrees.

 

Mad at no new Puss in Boots numbers 

 

[MrPink]

No problems for Houston imo, retire the phrase

 

 

@Deep Wang @Menor Reborn @XXR Eywa Has Heard You! @Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

Per rival distribution sources –not Disney– Avatar: The Way of Water is +8% to +10% over Sunday’s $29.5M which means a $31.9M to $32.4M Monday which means a $95.9M to $96.4M

[Alex SciChannel]

If Puss in Boots doesn't get a larger Monday percentage increase than A2, imma be mad.

[redfirebird2008]

$32M is equal to Rogue One. 9 of the last 10 days have been eerily similar between Avatar 2 & Rogue One. Looks like the Sunday number at 14% above Rogue One might have been a temporary boost from weather problems on Thursday, Friday, & Saturday. 

[ThomasNicole]

So basically R1 MON or slightly higher

 

TUE should be higher too like last weekend, let's see after that, if it manages to keep matching R1 or slightly higher, it's a great result

 

And great weekend overall, unlike the OW this one surprised most of us positively 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

$32M is equal to Rogue One. 9 of the last 10 days have been eerily similar between Avatar 2 & Rogue One. Looks like the Sunday number at 14% above Rogue One might have been a temporary boost from weather problems on Thursday, Friday, & Saturday. 

Yes, i think the trend will continue until JAN 02. 

 

R1 was at 440M at that point, A2 will probably be at 420-430M at the same point (since i think 3rd weekend will drop way better than R1 23%). 

 

After that R1 have an really bad performance, nearly awful results during January. A2 is already holding better and should do even better in January by comparisson.

 

I think upper 500's - low 600's is a good target. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, i think the trend will continue until JAN 02. 

 

R1 was at 440M at that point, A2 will probably be at 420-430M at the same point (since i think 3rd weekend will drop way better than R1 23%). 

 

After that R1 have an really bad performance, nearly awful results during January. A2 is already holding better and should do even better in January by comparisson.

 

I think upper 500's - low 600's is a good target. 

If it matches Rogue’s daily gross the rest of the way, it finishes at $508M. Will be interesting to see if it can gain some ground to get closer to $600M. 

[LinksterAC]

Fantastic weekend at ~95M. One wonders what it would have looked like with better placed holidays & better weather. 
 

110 to 115? If so, that’s an unreal hold. Not that 95M isn’t. 

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

If it matches Rogue’s daily gross the rest of the way, it finishes at $508M. Will be interesting to see if it can gain some ground to get closer to $600M. 

Aren’t its legs already better? Weekend to weekend drop I mean. 

[charlie Jatinder]

deadline is no fun. where's the currency ambiguity. where's permutations involving 14.5. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Aren’t its legs already better? Weekend to weekend drop I mean. 

Yes, but it started with a big disadvantage on opening Friday. It has not made up ground from opening Saturday to now. The numbers are eerily similar from opening Saturday to 2nd Monday. It is creepy how close the numbers have been for 9 of the last 10 days. 

[Joyous Legion]

14.5*145^.145+1.45 and that’s final

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Aren’t its legs already better? Weekend to weekend drop I mean. 

Yes, but weekdays was weaker so it's still 20M behind like it was on OW

 

3rd weekend should be considerably higher with 10-15% drop instead of 23% like R1, let's see if weekdays will match so it will actually gain advantage 

 

But i think it's inevitable, if not this week, in January when R1 have real bad numbers

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[redfirebird2008]

@LinksterAC

 

Check out the numbers below. This excludes Opening Friday, where Rogue One had a big advantage. Avatar 2 has not really made up ground from Day 2 through Day 11. 

 

 

[LinksterAC]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

@LinksterAC

 

Check out the numbers below. This excludes Opening Friday, where Rogue One had a big advantage. Avatar 2 has not really made up ground from Day 2 through Day 11. 

 

 

Great chart!

 

Maybe it's because of the winter weather & the smaller first day, but this just makes me feel like A2 is going to out-leg R1 by a country mile.