Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[John Marston]

The hype for Indy 5 honestly feels pretty muted for what is going to be the swan song of an iconic character. I think a combination of people being burned not just by Crystal Skull but by how the Star Wars sequels ended up turning out under Lucasfilm

[TMP]

Yeah, indy hype doesn't seem huge, feels more like a $300m-range grosser than $400m. Nostalgia will play a huge role though, so maybe these metrics won't matter considering social media is heavily skewed younger. Also think people keep forgetting how big a role nostalgia is gonna play in Flash - which is still a Batman movie featuring the return of the headliner of 1989's biggest hit. There's no way WB isn't gonna plaster keaton's face on everything, which will draw a crowd even if it's an Ezra Miller vehicle.

Rise of the Beasts is gonna do like $70m domestic, franchise seems dead. Elemental might struggle to reach even that.

[Cmasterclay]

I'm worried about Indy's trailer views but Top Gun had alot of the same concerns and the combination of quality and interest eventually triumphed so IF this is great it should be totally fine.

 

Transformers seemed DOA when it was announced but then I looked at the trailer views and Quroum metrics and holy shitballs, is there real hype behind this that I don't understand or something? Has the cartoon emerged again and I didn't realize? Why are these numbers so big?

[robertman2]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm worried about Indy's trailer views but Top Gun had alot of the same concerns and the combination of quality and interest eventually triumphed so IF this is great it should be totally fine.

 

Transformers seemed DOA when it was announced but then I looked at the trailer views and Quroum metrics and holy shitballs, is there real hype behind this that I don't understand or something? Has the cartoon emerged again and I didn't realize? Why are these numbers so big?

I think it's a combo of nostalgia for both Beast Wars and the first Bayformers, plus good will from Bumblebee

[Eric Loves Rey]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm worried about Indy's trailer views but Top Gun had alot of the same concerns and the combination of quality and interest eventually triumphed so IF this is great it should be totally fine.

 

Transformers seemed DOA when it was announced but then I looked at the trailer views and Quroum metrics and holy shitballs, is there real hype behind this that I don't understand or something? Has the cartoon emerged again and I didn't realize? Why are these numbers so big?

From what I can gather, it's like Bumblebee where it's really leaning into the Transformers aesthetics from the 80s and 90s that people are super nostalgic for, especially with Beast Wars being the most loved Transformers series. And I guess just nostalgia for the Bay movies?

 

I think that's it from the tweets I've seen pop up on my timeline, but Transformers is a huge blindspot for me when it comes to geek fandoms, so I'm sure somebody into the property can explain it better than I can.

[babz06]

On 12/27/2022 at 9:15 PM, WrathOfHan said:

March 17

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Having been four years since the first film, the DCEU has drastically evolved and is on the way out. Shazam was a fine hit for its budget but not a film audiences latched onto en mass, both theatrically and at home. Honestly, this now reeks of the last Fox X-Men films since everyone knows Shazam is unlikely to survive the new DC regime. Even if the film has good WOM, the damage might be done already. On the bright side, it should be in most theaters until GOTG 3 is out in May, leading to (hopefully) good legs. 35/100 (2.86x)

 

65: This needs to move out of March. Hell, put it in April, just get it out of this weekend where it won't get any PLFs. A big dumb dino movie needs the large screens, and if the recent delay was due to unfinished VFX, just delay it further for safety. 8/20 (2.5x)

I agree that they need to move 65 to April. It’s gonna be a bomb anyway but atleast it could possibly save a little face with little competition except Mario bros

[Grebacio]

11 hours ago, CJohn said:

The Little Mermaid is gonna tank. Under 200M total. You read it here first. 

if you are bold enough, make that a club

[WittyUsername]

I’m rooting for Across the Spider-Verse and Dune: Part II in 2023. Unfortunately, I’m finding it difficult to muster up much enthusiasm for the DC slate, assuming they really are doing a full reboot.

 

Oh, and as much as it pains me to say it, I guess it would be worth it if The Little Mermaid is a big hit, just so the “GET WOKE, GO BROKE” crowd would have egg on their faces. 

[Mulder]

4 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

From what I can gather, it's like Bumblebee where it's really leaning into the Transformers aesthetics from the 80s and 90s that people are super nostalgic for, especially with Beast Wars being the most loved Transformers series. And I guess just nostalgia for the Bay movies?

 

I think that's it from the tweets I've seen pop up on my timeline, but Transformers is a huge blindspot for me when it comes to geek fandoms, so I'm sure somebody into the property can explain it better than I can.

Not the biggest TF fan but I'm in it enough where I can explain. Bumblebee was overall incredibly beloved and this is its sequel, Bayformers nostalgia has fully kicked in now and I see nostalgia posts for those first three routinely, Beast Wars is one of the most beloved properties in the franchise and it being adapted has gotten a lot of people intrigued, and the aesthetic being more G1/OG cartoon-esque like Bumblebee is an additional boost. Now will fandom hype translate to general audiences? No idea, KoTM was very much being loved by the Godzilla fandom and as we saw that didn't translate to anything but on the other hand Transformers has opened huge before but so did G-2014 so... 🤷‍♀️

[robertman2]

9 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not the biggest TF fan but I'm in it enough where I can explain. Bumblebee was overall incredibly beloved and this is its sequel, Bayformers nostalgia has fully kicked in now and I see nostalgia posts for those first three routinely, Beast Wars is one of the most beloved properties in the franchise and it being adapted has gotten a lot of people intrigued, and the aesthetic being more G1/OG cartoon-esque like Bumblebee is an additional boost. Now will fandom hype translate to general audiences? No idea, KoTM was very much being loved by the Godzilla fandom and as we saw that didn't translate to anything but on the other hand Transformers has opened huge before but so did G-2014 so... 🤷‍♀️

Tbf KOTM followed up G2014, which was divisive, and KOTM itself was pretty bad

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Tbf KOTM followed up G2014, which was divisive, and KOTM itself was pretty bad

Ok

[poweranimals]

12 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: I genuinely don’t know what to think with this movie and every other day I’m thinking “bomb” or “okay”. The competition for this is intense. But on the other hand, it's not so intense it can’t find wiggle room. The Beast Wars stuff doesn’t seem exciting...but that’s just me, and it seems the fanbase is hyped over all the cool Transformer stuff in the film. And when the fanbase is excited, then the GA gets excited, right? But Transformers has been on the decline for years and Bumblebee wasn’t that big a hit. But on the other hand, it’s been long enough from those final movies that people miss the franchise. But do they miss it? Do people care? Quorum shows that people care right now, but is that sustainable or mean anything closer to release? You get the idea. I guess I’ll go somewhere in the middle and just say it does on par with Bumblebee. Which...yeah, for a 200M reboot is not very good and will probably have Paramount hit the “In Case of Emergency, Call Bay” button. 50/120 (2.4x)

Paramount would be fools to bring Bay back.

[CJohn]

Transformers won't even do 100M DOM total. Nobody wants that. People want TF6 with Shia and Megan.

 

Disney animations are dead in the water. Expect bomb after bomb. Families and adults are not coming back. All that is left is teens and young adults.

[WrathOfHan]

June 9

 

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: Bumblebee lucked out with a holiday release, Hailee, and Mr. Cena. What does this have? Nostalgia for 40 year old men? The franchise lacks a cohesive vision to keep audiences interested after The Last Knight cratered. The soft-Bay color grading won't fool anyone. I will not be surprised if it's the Tokyo Drift of the Transformers series; in fact, I'll predict it! 25/60 (2.4x)

 

Strays: This needs a trailer before a solid prediction, but there's meme potential here. 12/42 (3.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

June 16

 

The Flash: ...Is this actually coming out? Ezra's gonna get in trouble again before the movie releases; Zaslav doesn't have enough influence over them. Like Shazam, the film will suffer from DC's future undergoing significant changes, which has already begun for Keaton's Batman with Batgirl canned. The high audience tests might mean nothing with how long this has been delayed. I'm expecting Black Adam-ish numbers with the current circumstances. 70/190 (2.71x)

 

Elemental: This will go one of two ways: it screens early to great reviews and performs well, or it gets another Lightyear/Strange World type reception and flops horrendously. Based on the teaser, it doesn't look younger skewing, so adult appeal will be essential for success. Pixar needs normalcy again in its releases and box office, but I'm not sure this is the film to do it. 35/115 (3.29x)

 

The Blackening: This sounds like a more limited wide release, so I'll expect low numbers for now. 2/5 (2.5x)

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 16

 

The Flash: ...Is this actually coming out?

WB's coming back to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly 20 years for this movie so I guess the answer would be "yes" unless they've made another Flash movie in secret and will reveal it to the world during the big game lol.

[WrathOfHan]

June 23

 

No Hard Feelings: I'm not buying into the heavy bidding war being indicative of the film's quality after Don't Worry Darling fell on its face from studio interest. However, being Jennifer Lawrence's first studio film in over six years should be an easy sell. If the film is good, it has the room to leg it out over the Fourth of July and put up a respectable total. 15/60 (4x)

[elcaballero]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

People want TF6 with Shia and Megan.

Yeah, I kinda doubt people want that either.

[WrathOfHan]

June 30

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: I've been very high on the film's box office prospects, and the trailer reassured them. Harrison Ford's getting too old for this shit, and with Mangold's track record, it should be an emotional, fitting farewell for the star's most iconic character. Like Top Gun, it won't be frontloaded unless it pisses audiences off like Crystal Skull. For now, this is my highest grossing film of the year. 140/550 (3.93x)

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon: Based on Carlos Saldanha's track record at Blue Sky, this will likely be a run of the mill family feature, especially being his first foray into live action. After Sony's lackluster performance with Lyle Lyle Crocodile off decent reviews and good WOM, I'm not sure if they'll put a lot of energy into this, especially since Spider-Verse will still be going strong. As long as the budget wasn't more than 50-60M, it should be fine (if not, oh well...). 15/65 (4.33x)

Edited January 1, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[WittyUsername]

To the people arguing that they should bring Michael Bay back for Transformers, whether ironically or not, you guys are aware that Transformers 5 flopped, right? People got sick of Bayformers. The franchise was a big deal in the late 2000s, because there hadn’t really been anything like it before, but the MCU pretty much rendered Bayformers obsolete in the eyes of the average moviegoer.