New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[JustLurking]

The R1 comp served us pretty well early on, but unless theres some sudden realignment next week, which seems unlikely at this point, it's time to throw it out. It just serves little purpose if A2 is going to dwarf it over and over.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah 600M is happening... this will be at around 450M already by Monday 

 

Honestly less than 150M after JAN 02 coming off such a strong run would be even worse than R1 already awful results, really don't see any reason for that

 

For 650-700M tho it will need an amazing January run, which i'm not totally sold yet, weekdays should be depressed by it's runtime and this week maybe it's a bit inflated by spillover from last week with the storm. 

 

Still, 600-610M seems way more likely atp than those 540-560M predictions of last week.

[stuart360]

Is there even any point comparing A2 to R1 anymore when A2 is probably going to gross in the 100-200mil more range?

[IronJimbo]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Is there even any point comparing A2 to R1 anymore when A2 is probably going to gross in the 100-200mil more range?

it was useful because of the calender configuration, but now the holidays are over it will no longer be useful.

[cory]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Is there even any point comparing A2 to R1 anymore when A2 is probably going to gross in the 100-200mil more range?

Yeah I don't see it being useful after Monday once the calendar configuration is over. The only appropriate comparisons are A1/TFA/NWH after that.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Is there even any point comparing A2 to R1 anymore when A2 is probably going to gross in the 100-200mil more range?

 

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

it was useful because of the calender configuration, but now the holidays are over it will no longer be useful.

 

Starting day 19 (Tuesday) we can look at Avatar directly  

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

 

Starting day 19 (Tuesday) we can look at Avatar directly  

 

by end of 4th weekend we can then switch to titanic

[The Dark Alfred]

Will stop comparing once A2 is over RO and has a substantial daily lead. It's better look for A2 fans anyway, don't want to show a daily reminder of a defeat from TGM.

Edited December 31, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

 

Starting day 19 (Tuesday) we can look at Avatar directly  

 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Will stop comparing once A2 is over RO and has a substantial daily lead. It's better look for A2 fans anyway, don't want to show a daily reminder of a defeat from TGM.

A2 will be around $45m ahead of TGM by the end of this monday.

 

A2 dailies will be ahead of TGM every single day for the rest of their runs, except 4th Sunday and 4th Monday.

 

[The Dark Alfred]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

A2 will be around $45m ahead of TGM by the end of this monday.

 

A2 dailies will be ahead of TGM every single day for the rest of their runs, except 4th Sunday and 4th Monday.

 

 

If you think A2 will beat TGM domestically, go ahead, predict that and be wrong twice.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, The Dark Alfred said:

 

If you think A2 will beat TGM domestically, go ahead, predict that and be wrong twice.

I already did predict this, friend

Edited December 31, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Verrows]

50 minutes ago, filmlover said:

For the second year in a row we have a mega-blockbuster and animated sequel (Spider-Man/Sing, Avatar/Puss in Boots) as the only movies bringing in crowds over the holidays. Though this year's marketplace might be even weaker overall since Whitney and Babylon combined are looking to struggle to meet the individual grosses of any of Matrix/West Side Story/King's Man.

Yep. It's bleak. Hopefully studios step up their game next Christmas. 

[Tokugennumataka]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

by end of 4th weekend we can then switch to titanic

By 15th weekend switch that to My Big Fat Greek wedding 

[The Dark Alfred]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I already did predict this, friend

 

Great. Be wrong twice then buddy.

[Verrows]

42 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Maybe a CONTROVERSIAL take, but:

 

I think Avatar has such a big appeal because it has such cliche storys. You literally dont need to know anything about the world or the characters to enjoy the film. Franchises like Marvel or Star Wars rely on people knowing facts about these univereses to quite a big margin, but Avatar? Its a pretty fantasy world with blue people.

 

Thats it. Its blankness on a storylevel i actually think makes it work so well for the masses. Its 3 hours of pure escapism.

Great point. It did feel like that with these movies. But at the very same time there is enough lore for fans to bite into if they wish.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Tokugennumataka said:

By 15th weekend switch that to My Big Fat Greek wedding 

Then back to Titanic on week 500 or so for the 3D re-release

 

Just now, The Dark Alfred said:

Great. Be wrong twice then buddy.

better than being perpetually about everything you ever say, not just all your box office predictions but all your general takes too
 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Yep. It's bleak. Hopefully studios step up their game next Christmas. 

There’s a lot of potential hits. Aquaman will likely be the big fish. Wonka and Migration seem likely candidates for 150m-200m+, and Ghostbusters will do around Bumblebee numbers. I think we’ll get a repeat of 2018 again:

 

Aquaman 2: 365m

Wonka: 200m

Migration: 165m

Ghostbusters: 120m

Edited December 31, 2022 by YM!

[ThomasNicole]

I can't believe the movie did rebound from the pessimistic projections and it's likely to gross 600M (hell even maybe 650M) and once again people will have arguments to diminish the results if they want because of consistent overpredictions.

 

Of course having a prediction itself is amazing, but the constant arguing about it is really not a good look when it sounds arrogant.

 

Damn i just wanted to be real happy with the results but maybe @Porthosis right and no matter what the total will be, nobody will be satisfied 

Edited December 31, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[redfirebird2008]

$24.4M is a great number!