M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[tupek]

And once again everyone over overestimating the limited videogame movies genre, hahahah

[hw64]

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

200+. Really wouldn’t be shocked by new all time record though, it will be massive there. 

 

I see circa-$100m at absolute best. Literally figuratively impossible that it comes anywhere close to challenging Demon Slayer's $360m.

 

Edit: and looking at Detective Pikachu's performing, even that's probably way too high as a ceiling. $60-$70m seems the likely max if it's very well-received in Japan.

Edited January 8, 2023 by hw64

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

It broke the 17-year old OW record by over 1b yen (satsun only, and the old record was from when previews were included), then dropped 9% on its 2nd weekend breaking it again, then dropped 18% on its third breaking it again. It ended up beating the all-time 19-year old standing record by 30%.

 

It holds something like the 8 biggest days in Japan. If you want a more detailed explanation, go to worldofkj's Japan thread (Corpse is the authority on Japan BO in the west), or even this thread here which reposted a lot of her posts.

 

It's pretty crazy to think about how big it was. It's like Endgame opening to $357M DOM but then having a $320M 2nd WE and $265M 3rd WE. It's made even crazier by the fact that Japan essentially doesn't have inflation (only +1.8% since 2000 vs +66% for the US).

 

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Ok. You should probably lower them. Historically Japan doesn't care for hollywood adaptations of their properties. Even 50M will be a challenge in jp.

 

Also, the Japan record is the strongest single-market performance in the world, and is unlikely to ever be broken, let alone by Mario.

Hence why I’m putting the ceiling at that. Just like on Christmas Day I put the range for A2 through January 2nd as 440-475 and was right on the nose. 475 was the ceiling if it had held great for Boxing Day, which it did not. People need to understand the difference between a gross prediction and a ceiling prediction. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

It's pretty crazy to think about how big it was. It's like Endgame opening to $357M DOM but then having a $320M 2nd WE and $265M 3rd WE. It's made even crazier by the fact that Japan essentially doesn't have inflation (only +1.8% since 2000 vs +66% for the US).

 

 

Yep. I personally think the Mugen Train run in Japan is the most impressive box office run of the 21st century.

[grey ghost]

Yes! M3GAN cracked 30m OW!

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yep. I personally think the Mugen Train run in Japan is the most impressive box office run of the 21st century.

 

Single market, definitely. 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hence why I’m putting the ceiling at that. Just like on Christmas Day I put the range for A2 through January 2nd as 440-475 and was right on the nose. 475 was the ceiling if it had held great for Boxing Day, which it did not. People need to understand the difference between a gross prediction and a ceiling prediction. 

Uhm, I asked for what gross you expected and you said 200+, that's not a ceiling, that's a floor. Especially when you said you wouldn't be shocked at all-time record lol.

 

 

[Jiffy]

Would be surprised if Japan gives much of a fuck about Hollywood's Mario. They are not playing ball, nevermind their historical disinterest in Hollywood adaptations for their shit.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Uhm, I asked for what gross you expected and you said 200+, that's not a ceiling, that's a floor. Especially when you said you wouldn't be shocked at all-time record lol.

 

 

200+ is my gross prediction. Demon Slayer is my ceiling prediction. No idea what your question is here?

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Would be surprised if Japan gives much of a fuck about Hollywood's Mario. They are not playing ball, nevermind their historical disinterest in Hollywood adaptations for their shit.

I would agree if this wasn’t maybe the first Hollywood adaptation of a major Japanese IP that feels authentic. Hell, they’re even marketing the whole movie through Nintendo Directs, prominently utilizing Miyamoto and whatnot to intro everything. 

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

It's pretty crazy to think about how big it was. It's like Endgame opening to $357M DOM but then having a $320M 2nd WE and $265M 3rd WE. It's made even crazier by the fact that Japan essentially doesn't have inflation (only +1.8% since 2000 vs +66% for the US).

 

Gets a lot crazier when you think about the whole context behind that run.

 

It didn't just dominate the BO, but the entire media landscape of Japan. The manga made an absolute mockery of decade long records. The novels (which are just slice of life side stories for the most part) not only topped the year with ease, but landed around top3 on the oricon era (2008+). The opening was the biggest digital single of the year and broke the anime song record in the process. It was pulling insane ratings by rebroadcasting old episode compilations that were already out on streaming and had been for a year. The merch was so insane that the dumbest collabs were selling out, Shueisha even tried (and failed) copyrighting the MC's checkerboard pattern. Hell, you had NEWSPAPERS selling out the day the final volume released because there were special ads for the volume on them.

 

The series was so popular that year, the company that lists the defining characteristics of the year had it ABOVE FACE MASKS (in the year of covid!!), and sources estimated it generating 9 billion dollars in 2020 alone (with BO, manga, merch, collabs etc.).

 

KnY isn't just possibly the most dominant single-market run, it's the most absurd zeitgeist moment I can think of. It was absolutely ridicolous how each day you'd have some new absolutely ridicolous headline about it.

Edited January 8, 2023 by JustLurking

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Gets a lot crazier when you think about the whole context behind that run.

 

It didn't just dominate the BO, but the entire media landscape of Japan. The manga made an absolute mockery of decade long records. The novels (which are just slice of life side stories for the most part) not only topped the year with ease, but landed around top3 on the oricon era (2008+). The opening was the biggest digital single of the year and broke the anime song record in the process. It was pulling insane ratings by rebroadcasting old episode compilations that were already out on streaming and had been for a year. The merch was so insane that the dumbest collabs were selling out, Shueisha even tried (and failed) copyrighting the MC's checkerboard pattern. Hell, you had NEWSPAPERS selling out the day the final volume released because there were special ads for the volume on them.

 

The series was so popular that year, the company that lists the defining characteristics of the year had it ABOVE FACE MASKS (in the year of covid!!), and sources estimated it generating 9 billion dollars in 2020 alone (with BO, manga, merch, collabs etc.).

 

KnY isn't just possibly the most dominant single-market run, it's the most absurd zeitgeist moment I can think of. It was absolutely ridicolous how each day you'd have some new absolutely ridicolous headline about it.

 

anyone try to estimate how much more it would have made had it not been for covid?

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

anyone try to estimate how much more it would have made had it not been for covid?

It wouldn't have made more, COVID is part of what makes that record unbreakable. It got record amount of screens and was allowed to keep them for months on end since what little came out (Stand by Me Doraemon 2 was the biggest release until atleast January iirc) would just get steamrolled and give them back immediately.

 

You basically had the combination of endless demand+it getting all the screens it could've wanted to satisfy it. It's questionable whether that record is even theoretically beatable unless Japan starts having inflation to begin with.

[lab276]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

anyone try to estimate how much more it would have made had it not been for covid?

 

Might have made less actually, it had a largely competition free run. Just made it the centre of attention even more than it otherwise would’ve been. 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Gets a lot crazier when you think about the whole context behind that run.

 

It didn't just dominate the BO, but the entire media landscape of Japan. The manga made an absolute mockery of decade long records. The novels (which are just slice of life side stories for the most part) not only topped the year with ease, but landed around top3 on the oricon era (2008+). The opening was the biggest digital single of the year and broke the anime song record in the process. It was pulling insane ratings by rebroadcasting old episode compilations that were already out on streaming and had been for a year. The merch was so insane that the dumbest collabs were selling out, Shueisha even tried (and failed) copyrighting the MC's checkerboard pattern. Hell, you had NEWSPAPERS selling out the day the final volume released because there were special ads for the volume on them.

 

The series was so popular that year, the company that lists the defining characteristics of the year had it ABOVE FACE MASKS (in the year of covid!!), and sources estimated it generating 9 billion dollars in 2020 alone (with BO, manga, merch, collabs etc.).

 

KnY isn't just possibly the most dominant single-market run, it's the most absurd zeitgeist moment I can think of. It was absolutely ridicolous how each day you'd have some new absolutely ridicolous headline about it.

The major thing to add to all this though being where was the multi-generational appeal? It captured the zeitgeist of pretty much the entirety of a single generation of Japanese people, but I’d argue the only thing that has the potential to match a box office performance is something truly multi-generational. Idk if Mario could be that; but it’s one of the only IPs I can think of with said multi-gen potential there, hence my ceiling. 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The major thing to add to all this though being where was the multi-generational appeal? It captured the zeitgeist of pretty much the entirety of a single generation of Japanese people, but I’d argue the only thing that has the potential to match a box office performance is something truly multi-generational. Idk if Mario could be that; but it’s one of the only IPs I can think of with said multi-gen potential there, hence my ceiling. 

KnY was multi-generational is the point. It had the kids, the teens, the adults and even the elderly (it had special screens dedicated to them with aids at one point). It's the peak of what a nationwide cultural phenomenom looks like.

[lilmac]

32 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Yes! M3GAN cracked 30m OW!

 

I love that dance.

And the other one she does where she leans her head and body to the side. It got a reaction from the audience. LOL

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

35 minutes ago, lab276 said:

 

That’s what I mean, what on earth was I thinking being disappointed at the time? The first couple months of 2013 were pretty weak though, it didn’t get interesting until summer. 

The awards boosts were huge that year, plus a Top 10 with stuff like Parental Guidance and The Guilt Trip, they'd be straight to streaming now.

 

Relive the weekend:

 

 

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Would be surprised if Japan gives much of a fuck about Hollywood's Mario. They are not playing ball, nevermind their historical disinterest in Hollywood adaptations for their shit.

This. There is no way a hollywood made animation on a character Japan likes will break out. Even if it does $50m, that would be a spectacular success. Only Minions has done well off late. So its not easy for Hollywood CGI flicks to break out.