M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Yes, especially the great hold in this past week is not exclusive to A2. All other movies show similar hold, suggest that higher holiday rate this year push the moviegoing. 

 

Also, A2' Sunday week-to-week hold is -43% from 3rd Sunday or 35% if you assume Monday as Sunday. Meanwhile, A1 only drop 9% in 4th Sunday. This means A1 would have way stronger carry over effect to MLK weekend. 

That sunday week to week thing is kinda a whack comparison, that was calender differences

[Sophia Jane]

Heard today have the football game,it’s that a big effect?

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

It’s important for everyone to keep in mind when making a prediction for this weekend that it’ll be the start of the NFL playoffs. We’ve got 2 games Saturday and 4 on Sunday. They will each pull at least 25M viewers and potentially upwards of 40M for the prime slots. 

If I remember correctly there are always big games on this weekend, right? Legit question, I don't remember.

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Still say Sunday final number lands at 14mil, isnt even a 4.5mil Monday like a 70% drop?.

Sorry not great with percentages lol.

70% drop from that sun is not abnormal

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

If I remember correctly there are always big games on this weekend, right? Legit question, I don't remember.

First week of the playoffs isn't normally this far in to January though

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

If I remember correctly there are always big games on this weekend, right? Legit question, I don't remember.

Yea but this is only the 2nd season the playoffs will start this coming weekend. Previously it has started this past weekend. 

[XXR & Friends]

12 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Heard today have the football game,it’s that a big effect?

The college football championship is tonight. About 10% of the country will watch it. 

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

That sunday week to week thing is kinda a whack comparison, that was calender differences

But that is how the carry over effect work. When your Sunday drop 40% ish, you can't expect your mid-week improve for no reason unless there are big external factor such as holiday. 

[Sophia Jane]

It’s almost double of same time NWH did,NWH doing 140m after 4th weekend,if Avatar keep this run…..

Edited January 9, 2023 by Bruce

[Dale Cooper]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

But that is how the carry over effect work. When your Sunday drop 40% ish, you can't expect your mid-week improve for no reason unless there are big external factor such as holiday. 

The point here though is that the reason it dropped that much is because last Sunday was much higher than it would have been with the calender configuration that A1 had.

[M37]

19 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

It’s important for everyone to keep in mind when making a prediction for this weekend that it’ll be the start of the NFL playoffs. We’ve got 2 games Saturday and 4 on Sunday. They will each pull at least 25M viewers and potentially upwards of 40M for the prime slots. 

*3 on Sunday, 1 on Monday night, but with next Monday being a holiday the day will be inflated before any audience loss

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Bruce said:

It’s almost double of same time NWH did,NWH doing 140m after 4th weekend,if Avatar keep this run…..

After this weekend I am feeling stronger about taking TGM especially when the movie has less competition compared to TGM in the second month of run. In 2nd month, TGM faced Minion and Thor 4 but Avatar 2 has cleaner path. Not to mention award season such as Oscar that will contribute to the additional buzz and potentially bring out new audience. 

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

The point here though is that the reason it dropped that much is because last Sunday was much higher than it would have been with the calender configuration that A1 had.

That was why Monday was taken as Sunday and the drop was still around 35%, meaning the mid-week hold would be almost impossible to come better than this. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

6 hours ago, Mr Roark said:

I have no more words left.

Saw it yesterday and it’s just too good. At the end of the film a 60 years old with his mom was crying at the Neteyam vision.

 

I've never seen so many old people in theather (outside of old people moves), in my first screening there was an a very old lady who came in a wheelchair with her whole family and had to be carried to her seat 

[Sophia Jane]

Guys,I’m think about beating TGM is almost locked at this point

We need to comp with Spiderman:NWH ,NWH doing 140m total after its 4th WE,Avatar box office is around 516m for now,that’s  a 200m way to TGM,we need 1.4 ✖️ NWH left to beating it,

Then I do some math thing,No way home doing 2.4m 4th Monday,9.55m 4th weekday and 23m fifth long 4-day weekend ,to catch that 1.4 ✖️left,we only need respectively 3.36m monday ,13.37m weekday and 32.2m fifth long weekend,I don’t think this is even the problem we need to discuss,if we follow this trend to next and next weekend(I don’t think it’s hard,Avatar and NWH’s daily gap will be bigger and bigger )we’ll see a clear way that Avatar almost locked for Beating TGM

Edited January 9, 2023 by Bruce

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, setna said:

Anyone knows how much is the salary for JC in Avatar 2?
I remember for the first he only had a percentage of the profits and he earned 237 M, but i guess now he also assured a chunk of the possible profit in A2.

 

theres that reddit thread from 2016, believe it if you want

 

[kayumanggi]

25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

After this weekend I am feeling stronger about taking TGM especially when the movie has less competition compared to TGM in the second month of run. In 2nd month, TGM faced Minion and Thor 4 but Avatar 2 has cleaner path. Not to mention award season such as Oscar that will contribute to the additional buzz and potentially bring out new audience. 

 

The thing is, that competition you mentioned didn't affect TGM much. Here were its drops from weekends 6 to 10.

 

6th weekend: -12.6% / $25.89M

MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU opened

 

7th weekend: -40.1% / $15.51M

THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER opened

 

8th weekend: -20.6% / $12.31M

WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING opened

 

9th weekend: -16.5% / $10.27M

NOPE opened

 

10th weekend: -18.1% / $8.41M

DC LEAGUE OF SUPERPETS opened

 

So it was not just competing with the openers but with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th weekends of the other movies as well. Still, it managed to have those insane drops.

 

The question now is, how will THE WAY OF WATER fare in its 6th to 10th weekends?

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by kayumanggi

[M37]

Monday should be somewhat deflated due to CFB NC (but still will give a decent idea of weekday level), Tuesdays is gonna Tuesday, so really the day I think gives the best indication of trajectory will be Wednesday

 

OG Avatar had this weekend be 9x Wed (and 11.5x for the 4-day), and while we don't yet know if we're going to see equivalent weekend/weekday splits with Avatwo (and Discount Tuesdays were not yet sucking business away from Wed into Tue) probably the best place to start. Last year NWH posted a 9x/11x (with Scream opening) and American Underdog was a 8.3x/10.4x while losing a little bit of volume, so basically same as NWH. Mon should add 25-30% more to the weekend total

 

So a $4M Wed would mean an approximate, expected ~$36M weekend, and ~$46M 4-day. Having the 4-day match the previous 3-day is what Jumanji WTTJ (nearly) pulled off, on its way to legging out and making 3.1x more of this full week's total

[Borobudur]

On 1/8/2023 at 12:16 PM, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Fucking hell, Avatar 2's Saturday nearly doubling its Friday this weekend?! It's so surreal seeing a Fox leftover absorbed by Disney doing this well.

The Saturday jump prove 3 hours run time pushed the business to weekend more than usual, just like Batman also jumped higher than usual considering the movie isn't really a family friendly content. Can't wait to see how A2 would do next weekend cause there are 2 "Saturday".  

[lilmac]

9 hours ago, upriser7 said:

Packers lose, America wins. Great result to cap off the day

Huge fan of Aaron Rodgers, especially after the last couple of years so boo. LOL

 

 

Regarding the boxoffice, don't be alarmed folks if Monday sees sharper than expected drops. Plenty of time to recover especially with MLK weekend around the corner.