MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Cooper Legion]

Just for kicks:

Dec 23 Puss 19.6% A2

30th 24.9% (+27%)

6th 29.5% (+18%)

13th est* 46.6% (+58%)

 

4th wknd % +137% from OW, ~33% avg growth per week would lead to crossing the streams in 3 weeks, feb 3rd-5th. In reality my estimate is going to be one week later. Next wknd I could see perhaps 11.3/20 56.5% (+21%) Which is right on track for that.

 

*13.5/29

[titanic2187]

I am not really satisfied with Avatar's gross in domestic market tbh. I was looking for $750m minimum with $800m in sight but now I am getting $675m-ish finish. But that being said, it is still enough to keep the haters grounded. I am still hoping a $700m finish line.

[John Marston]

Avatar slowing down a bit but that's OK of course since it will make 650m or so. Still it is awesome Top Gun will be number 1 domestically

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Use week 3, the NY’s week 😉

 

Also FOTR, Titanic (just for lol), and NWH. Maybe throw in some Sing’s or Chipmunks. Not a big list at that level 

 

Edit: actually, to do this right, should use the holidays, 12/25 through some common end point, 1/01 or 1/07 (14 days). Would help balance out the starting value between the Fri and Wed openers and differing calendars 

25-7th sounds right. I had a few movies I was using for NWH last year, lemme check…

TFA

ROTK

WttJ

A1

F1

 

Will go for A1 WttJ TGS ItSV FOTR NWH F1 I think, maybe titanic for lols maybe not.

Edit: Versions normalized to mlk mon 7D MA as well.

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[stuart360]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am not really satisfied with Avatar's gross in domestic market tbh. I was looking for $750m minimum with $800m in sight but now I am getting $675m-ish finish. But that being said, it is still enough to keep the haters grounded. I am still hoping a $700m finish line.

I mean i'm a 'loonie', and my orig prediction from ages ago was 750mil US/2.5bil WW.

But even i knew i was possibly reaching a bit with us being in post pandemic times.

 

If the pandemic never happened, 750mil would of been locked imo, in fact it probably would of gone way over 800mil US, and 3bil WW.

Edited January 14, 2023 by stuart360

[Eric Prime]

Deadline Top 10

 

1.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 4,045 (-295) theaters Fri $7M (-39%) 3-day $27M-$29M (-39%), 4-day $35M Total $566.7M/Wk 5

2.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,605 (+96) theaters Fri $4.85M (-59%), 3-day $17.5M (-42%) 4-day $20.7M Total $59.2M /Wk 2

3.) Puss in in Boots 2 (Uni) 3,687 (-232) theaters Fri $3M (-10%) 3-day $12.46M (-8%)/4-day $16M/Total $109M/Wk 4

4.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 3,802 (+3165) theaters, Fri $4M (+162%) 3-day $11.75M (+180%) , 4-day $14M/Total $20.2M/Wk 3

5.) Plane (LG) 3,023 theaters, Fri $3.54M, 3-day $9.5M, 4-day $10.5M-$11.7M/Wk 1

6.) House Party (NL) 1,350 theaters, Fri $1.4M, 3-day $3.6M 4-day $4M/Wk 1

7.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 1,910 (-345) theaters Fri $524K (-46%) 3-day $2M (-43%), 4-day $2.5M Total $449.4M/ Wk 10 

😎The Whale (A24) 1,500 (+665) theaters Fri $418,5K (-1%)  3 day $1.4M (-7%), 4-day $1.7M Total $10.99M/Wk 6

9.) I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony) 2,205 (-979 theaters) Fri $300K (-57%) 3-day $1.1M (-54%) , 4-day $1.3M, Total $22M/ Wk 4

10.) Waltair Veeraya (Ind) 350 theaters, Fri $318K, 3-day $1.08M, 4-day $1.2M/Wk 1

[DAJK]

30 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Now you gotta tell us what the fight was about

Apparently it started with "you're sitting in my seat" and simply escalated from there. And I mean ESCALATED.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Plane said:

Deadline Top 10

 

1.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 4,045 (-295) theaters Fri $7M (-39%) 3-day $27M-$29M (-39%), 4-day $35M Total $566.7M/Wk 5

2.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,605 (+96) theaters Fri $4.85M (-59%), 3-day $17.5M (-42%) 4-day $20.7M Total $59.2M /Wk 2

3.) Puss in in Boots 2 (Uni) 3,687 (-232) theaters Fri $3M (-10%) 3-day $12.46M (-8%)/4-day $16M/Total $109M/Wk 4

4.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 3,802 (+3165) theaters, Fri $4M (+162%) 3-day $11.75M (+180%) , 4-day $14M/Total $20.2M/Wk 3

5.) Plane (LG) 3,023 theaters, Fri $3.54M, 3-day $9.5M, 4-day $10.5M-$11.7M/Wk 1

6.) House Party (NL) 1,350 theaters, Fri $1.4M, 3-day $3.6M 4-day $4M/Wk 1

7.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 1,910 (-345) theaters Fri $524K (-46%) 3-day $2M (-43%), 4-day $2.5M Total $449.4M/ Wk 10 

😎The Whale (A24) 1,500 (+665) theaters Fri $418,5K (-1%)  3 day $1.4M (-7%), 4-day $1.7M Total $10.99M/Wk 6

9.) I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony) 2,205 (-979 theaters) Fri $300K (-57%) 3-day $1.1M (-54%) , 4-day $1.3M, Total $22M/ Wk 4

10.) Waltair Veeraya (Ind) 350 theaters, Fri $318K, 3-day $1.08M, 4-day $1.2M/Wk 1

 

I feel proud I called the best performing of the 4 Indian releases:)...

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Apparently it started with "you're sitting in my seat" and simply escalated from there. And I mean ESCALATED.

 

So, it was an elderly lady fight...

 

I mention that b/c here's Deadline's Otto demo...

 

"Who came out? Older women. Overall women turnout is 60% with overall crowd at 62% over 45, 46% over 55. And the movie is playing to the heartland — a swath of the country Hollywood needs to make more films for if they want to bring the domestic box office back. It’s not all about NYC and LA. Otto saw all top 10 runs come from Mid-West and South with no LA and NYC runs in its top 75 theaters “which is almost unheard of” says one box office source...Other demos were 70% Caucasian, 15% Hispanic and Latino, 3% Black, & 12% Asian/other." 

Edited January 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I mean i'm a 'loonie', and my orig prediction from ages ago was 750mil US/2.5bil WW.

But even i knew i was possibly reaching a bit with us being in post pandemic times.

 

If the pandemic never happened, 750mil would of been locked imo, in fact it probably would of gone way over 800mil US, and 3bil WW.

My prediction has always been $800m domestic, $1.3bn overseas without china and another $500m from China. Yes, that would be $2.6bn range. I have doubt for even $2bn after seeing that $440m global opening but the movie manage to save some face with strong leg across.

 

At least the movie still looking at around $2.3bn and allow JC to take 3 spots of the top 4. The only major shortfall was China since Covid-19 cut the gross by more than half there. Between this, and Avatar 2 making into Oscar's best picture list, that is enough to shut the haters. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Plane demos...and it seems like it will be a win financially...Deadline again...https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-plane-gerard-butler-the-avatar-way-of-water-m3gan-1235221135/

 

"Guys showed up at 54%, 47% were between 18-34 with 51% over 35. Diversity demos were 44% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black and 15% Asian/other. Plane flew best in the South and the West where nine of its top ten runs came from. The pic cost in the low $20Ms with a P&A in the same range."

 

PS - I had the 2% of guys under 18 with me.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, it was an elderly lady fight...

 

I mention that b/c here's Deadline's Otto demo...

 

"Who came out? Older women. Overall women turnout is 60% with overall crowd at 62% over 45, 46% over 55. And the movie is playing to the heartland — a swath of the country Hollywood needs to make more films for if they want to bring the domestic box office back. It’s not all about NYC and LA. Otto saw all top 10 runs come from Mid-West and South with no LA and NYC runs in its top 75 theaters “which is almost unheard of” says one box office source...Other demos were 70% Caucasian, 15% Hispanic and Latino, 3% Black, & 12% Asian/other." 

The cold weather in Florida is going to boost those Sat & Sun numbers with all those SnowBirds 

[Eric Prime]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, it was an elderly lady fight...

 

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Plane demos...and it seems like it will be a win financially...Deadline again...https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-plane-gerard-butler-the-avatar-way-of-water-m3gan-1235221135/

 

"Guys showed up at 54%, 47% were between 18-34 with 51% over 35. Diversity demos were 44% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black and 15% Asian/other. Plane flew best in the South and the West where nine of its top ten runs came from. The pic cost in the low $20Ms with a P&A in the same range."

 

PS - I had the 2% of guys under 18 with me.

 

Someone posted it cost 50M? 

[Mr Roark]

Luiz predicts a $690/720M finish.

[stuart360]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

My prediction has always been $800m domestic, $1.3bn overseas without china and another $500m from China. Yes, that would be $2.6bn range. I have doubt for even $2bn after seeing that $440m global opening but the movie manage to save some face with strong leg across.

 

At least the movie still looking at around $2.3bn and allow JC to take 3 spots of the top 4. The only major shortfall was China since Covid-19 cut the gross by more than half there. Between this, and Avatar 2 making into Oscar's best picture list, that is enough to shut the haters. 

 

Yeah 650-700mil US, 2.3bil worldwide probably, 3rd biggest movie of all time (depending how much Titanic's re-relese makes), biggest post pandemic movie by 300-400mil.

 

All with a shitty exchange rate, 70-80% movie going compared to pre-pandemic, and a covid ravaged China and China that could possibly of finished even higher than the US if it wasnt for covid.

 

We cant realy complain, and i bet Disney are over the moon to be honest.

[DAJK]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Plane demos...and it seems like it will be a win financially...Deadline again...https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-plane-gerard-butler-the-avatar-way-of-water-m3gan-1235221135/

 

"Guys showed up at 54%, 47% were between 18-34 with 51% over 35. Diversity demos were 44% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black and 15% Asian/other. Plane flew best in the South and the West where nine of its top ten runs came from. The pic cost in the low $20Ms with a P&A in the same range."

 

PS - I had the 2% of guys under 18 with me.

Watching Plane, I could definitely see it costing in the 20M range as opposed to 50M. If it really did cost 50, I have no clue where that $ went, because it certainly isn’t up on the screen.

[marveldcfox]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Watching Plane, I could definitely see it costing in the 20M range as opposed to 50M. If it really did cost 50, I have no clue where that $ went, because it certainly isn’t up on the screen.

Yup. 50M including p&a. 

Will be a solid money maker. 30+ domestically. 50+ OS

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Yup. 50M including p&a. 

Will be a solid money maker. 30+ domestically. 50+ OS

Oh INCLUDING p&a. Makes more sense lol.

[Tokugennumataka]

17 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Luiz predicts a $690/720M finish.

So his prediction ranged from... 490-870M finish. Now that's a man who covers ALL his bases.