MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Krissykins]

Looks like BOM have a bogus number for Lyle Lyle Crocodile, they have $146m, BOP just posted $102m and so did Sony. 

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, todos said:

The Disney lowballing both DOM & International feels at times incompetent or misleading $ deliberate. 
Sunday & Monday estimates are very fishy. 
We literally have China, Korea & India numbers that are nothing like what they are reporting. 

 

There are no official dollar grosses for overseas territories outside of the studio ones. Plugging a local currency gross into a Google exchange rates calculator and getting a different figure from the studio estimates doesn't necessarily mean that the studio estimates are wrong, as we don't know how, when and at what rates the studio is converting the local currency figures.

[DAJK]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I know folks don't want to get their hopes up too much but 2023 starting off with back-to-back strong weekends really seems like a terrific sign for the rest of the year IMO, especially when the dry spell that is the remainder of January won't last long cause starting in February to the end of the summer we're looking to see consistently solid grosses for almost every weekend with little downtime.

Please repeat this next weekend when people start to melt down because the box office isn’t as high as this weekend.

 

I’m honestly really worried about the meltdowns next weekend.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I know folks don't want to get their hopes up too much but 2023 starting off with back-to-back strong weekends really seems like a terrific sign for the rest of the year IMO, especially when the dry spell that is the remainder of January won't last long cause starting in February to the end of the summer we're looking to see consistently solid grosses for almost every weekend with little downtime.

Agreed. The pessimism I had overall for this month is being pushed away by now two solid weekends (relatively speaking) 

 

To me, the biggest bright spot is actually Otto, the kind of title that was finding no traction at all last year, and might be signaling that at least some of that post-pandemic lost audience is starting to find their way back to theaters 

 

And yes, can probably credit at least some of that to Avatwo’s success, casting a wider net 

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR: TWOW's overseas weekends

 

$300.5M / 1st weekend

$176.6M / 2nd weekend

$185.5M / 3rd weekend

$136.7M / 4th weekend

$088.6M / 5th weekend

[Brainbug]

In a perfect world, Puss in Boots has 4 more weekends with under 10% drops and finishes above 200M DOM. Megan crosses 100M DOM and Otto finds the WOM and legs to push past 70M DOM.

 

Spoiler

And Avatar 2 gets to 650M.

Spoiler

But not more than 650M.

Spoiler

Maybe 652M.

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Brainbug

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR's 5th weekend numbers back in 2010.

 

$125.0M / international weekend
$1.115B / international total
$41.3M / domestic weekend
$491.8M / domestic total
$1.606B / worldwide total

[titanic2187]

16 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

$211.8M?

1464mio yuan are $218M+.

This is not how international BO works with continuous changing ER.

If A2 made ~¥400m during OW at 1USD:6.98RMB, that is it, you get $57m. This gross won't change no matter how ER improve or deteriorate afterward.

 

So we can't just assume ¥1464m translate to latest ER at 1USD:6.7RMB to $218m. Similar to every other country, no matter how the ER improves during latter run, that only boost the gross coming from the latter run, the gross made before ER improves won't change.

 

 

[upriser7]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

AVATAR: TWOW's overseas weekends

 

$300.5M / 1st weekend

$176.6M / 2nd weekend

$185.5M / 3rd weekend

$136.7M / 4th weekend

$088.6M / 5th weekend

At this point, I would be very surprised if 5th weekend's actuals don't come in higher than Disney's estimate of 88.6M. Looking at their estimates of some of the individual market,s they seem to be lowballing a lot

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

At this point, I would be very surprised if 5th weekend's actuals don't come in higher than Disney's estimate of 88.6M. Looking at their estimates of some of the individual market,s they seem to be lowballing a lot

 

$90M, it is. 😅

[Brainbug]

From Deadline:

 

The first 16 days of 2023 are off to a very good start with all titles estimated to ring up $377M, 43% ahead of the same period a year ago.

 

You love to read that. I know, January 2022 had Covid impact and even less movies than this January, but a better performance is a better performance and should give theaters hope.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Brainbug

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, M37 said:

Agreed. The pessimism I had overall for this month is being pushed away by now two solid weekends (relatively speaking) 

 

To me, the biggest bright spot is actually Otto, the kind of title that was finding no traction at all last year, and might be signaling that at least some of that post-pandemic lost audience is starting to find their way back to theaters 

 

And yes, can probably credit at least some of that to Avatwo’s success, casting a wider net 

Otto's success doesn't really say much about the state of adult cinema today, since Tom Hanks's inclusion gives it a massive advantage over the rest of the genre. Its opening is also not great, especially against its $50M budget. Sadly in the old world it would've made that budget back with its domestic opening alone. Now any sort of double digit opening for adult pictures is champagne-worthy.

[upriser7]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

$90M, it is. 😅

I think it could come in even higher..even last weekend it ended up coming in $5M higher than what Disney's initial estimate...I am expecting something similar to that this weekend too

[Godzilla]

43 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Most important:

 

Dreamworks is not quite dead yet. Maybe this gets them motivated to actually give a shit about their movies again,

 

I mean they're more alive than Disney Animations or Pixar right now. Sing 2 made $400M WW.

[Skim Beeble]

Violent Night is gonna end it's run annoyingly close to $50m

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Otto's success doesn't really say much about the state of adult cinema today, since Tom Hanks's inclusion gives it a massive advantage over the rest of the genre. Its opening is also not great, especially against its $50M budget. Sadly in the old world it would've made that budget back with its domestic opening alone. Now any sort of double digit opening for adult pictures is champagne-worthy.

I definitely don’t think Otto would have opened to 50M domestic in any time period  

[M37]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Otto's success doesn't really say much about the state of adult cinema today, since Tom Hanks's inclusion gives it a massive advantage over the rest of the genre. Its opening is also not great, especially against its $50M budget. Sadly in the old world it would've made that budget back with its domestic opening alone. Now any sort of double digit opening for adult pictures is champagne-worthy.

Sure, in that TTP did fine because of Roberts and Clooney

 

It’s not a great total, but it’s well above what other titles of this ilk have been netting, and also where it’s doing well. Too much of business is being concentrated on coasts/larger metros, to the point where it’s getting harder for the middle and lower tier markets & theaters to survive. Getting a boost from Otto - or TGM before that - is a net positive for the long term health of those areas and the overall market in what content is produced 

 

Also I believe that $50M budget was 1) a pre-COVID greenlight and 2) includes P&A, so should recoup 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Cheddar Please]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

So the question is can the Titanic re-release gross enough to keep its 3rd place spot.

looking like it will barely miss it. My current projections (which estimate 20-30% drops for the next few weeks), lands A2 at about 642m going into Valentine's day weekend

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

From Deadline:

 

The first 16 days of 2023 are off to a very good start with all titles estimated to ring up $377M, 43% ahead of the same period a year ago.

 

You love to read that. I know, January 2022 had Covid impact and even less movies than this January, but a better performance is a better performance and should give theaters hope.

That’s excellent news. 

20 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Violent Night is gonna end it's run annoyingly close to $50m

Annoyingly close. Great run though. Loved that film.