MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[todos]

Monday matched Friday almost identically.

 

Can’t wait to read what that means to the film’s doom prospect lol Someone surely has that tea leaf to share.

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, Sophia Jane said:

Tuesday 2m maybe

 

Way higher

[Jiffy]

Hate just missing $40m for the 4-day by $120k. Damn.

[Jiffy]

Really big drops for Megan, Plane, and House Party, too. How many people watched the game last night?

[Sophia Jane]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Way higher

Well even china doing $3m working day now,DOM can’t even do $2m?

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Well even china doing $3m working day now,DOM can’t even do $2m?

 

You misunderstood, TUE will be much higher than $2m, around $3m.

 

As for China, it's boosted by holidays.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Elessar

[Sophia Jane]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

You misunderstood, TUE will be much higher than $2m, around $3m.

OK，I’m glad to see that

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

3m, 2m, 2m would be good this week for A2 followed by a 22m weekend (-33%). I'd expect a bigger drop since Sunday won't be boosted but these numbers would still be good for 700m and maybe challenging TGM.

[Sophia Jane]

Antman’s challenge will be huge

Even Avatar can overtake TGM,is still a long way to go,Antman will kill Avatar late legs at least during its opening weekend

[Firepower]

Ugly ugly drop.

[Alexdube]

26 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Perhaps bigger than expected Monday drop, but still a solid gain for A2. The model forecasts it to win the battle with ease and finish just shy of 650m. Maybe with a push it can challenge JW.

 

JEDIWATER SHOWDOWN  - AVATAR 2 VS SW: TLJ (EP VIII)

 

DAY 32: (MONDAY) AVATAR 7.06m

DAY 32: (MONDAY) TLJ 2.77m

 

WATER TEMP: HOT (+4.29m)

CUME: AVATAR 571.69m  VS TLJ 594.9m

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 23.21m

WATER FLOW: 647m

We get to around 650 if Avatar makes the same amount of money TFA did from that point on. Just this weekend it did a good 7M more than TFA. It's going to easily pass JW

[Dragoncaine]

8 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Ugly ugly drop.

I really hope you're just referring to Monday.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

$200M for PiB2?

Did some math this morning and if Puss follows TGS to a tee, it’ll be at 145m at the end of January, 180m+ at end of February and should end March in the 192m range. With Mario double features and maybe a Tangled like stall it could do 200m:

 

Using TGS type holds

$128m as of 1/22

$143m as of 1/29

$155m as of 2/5

$165m as of 2/12

$175.5m as of 2/20

$181m as of 2/26

$185.35m as of 3/5th 

$187.66m as of 3/12

$189m as of 3/17

 

[Jiffy]

Seeing how other adult films dropped less worried about Monday.

[Alexdube]

23 minutes ago, todos said:

Monday matched Friday almost identically.

 

Can’t wait to read what that means to the film’s doom prospect lol Someone surely has that tea leaf to share.

 

1 minute ago, Jiffy said:

Seeing how other adult films dropped less worried about Monday.

 

This drop isn't surprising. MLK is not a holiday in Canada where it turns out Avatar is overperforming. Then Avatar is also weaker when the next day is a regular week day because the long running time is a tougher sell

[Mr Roark]

22 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Ugly ugly drop.

Say it out loud: “flop”!

[hw64]

Puss's 4-day was 17% ahead of Showman.

 

If it has the same holds as Showman off the 4-day and holds at an average of 17% ahead for the rest of its run, then it literally makes $200.1m.

 

This isn't an actual analysis of Puss's chances to hit $200m, I just thought it was funny to note.

Edited January 17, 2023 by hw64

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

I just realised Titanic is rereleasing off of a current domestic gross of $659m next month which will likely be very close to Avatar 2s gross at the same point in time. We might see Cameron vs Cameron in a live box office race for the ages! Could both of them get to $700m and if so which one will get there first?

[CJohn]

That is pretty bad for Avatar. It will start to colapse after this weekend. Jurassic World is safe.

[Borobudur]

2 hours ago, Jiffy said:

Hate just missing $40m for the 4-day by $120k. Damn.

If Monday can just stick to initial $7,3m revised estimate.......where did all the people go???