MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, ando said:

So about all that football that was supposed to affect the daily jumps/holds. Really doesn't seem like that happened at all. 

I love how this is the instant assumption rather than thinking that it could have made more money

[interiorgatordecorator]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Next weekend will drop the difference a lot, as Maverick pays back Avatar's holiday weekend advantage with a holiday weekend of its own.

 

Avatar should be around $7m above Maverick on this 4-day weekend compared to Maverick's equivalent Fri-Mon, and Maverick made $32.3m on its own 4-day this weekend, so Avatar will have to make $25m+ over Fri-Mon this week to come out at net neutral over these two 4-days.

 

week 7, after oscar noms and the 2 billion, should probably help

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, ando said:

So about all that football that was supposed to affect the daily jumps/holds. Really doesn't seem like that happened at all. 

 

Canadians don't watch American football:)...

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Canadians don't watch American football:)...

But Sun number make thing look like it is American that boost the sales since MLK only observed in US. 

[M37]

32 minutes ago, M37 said:

That would also mean Showman is on Titanic level! 🤔

 

Wednesday Xmas openings behave differently than Friday openings: don’t really get that OW rush pre-Christmas, plus they’re usually living in the shadow of the bigger movie that came before and so blossom after Christmas. The compressed nature of the holiday release calendar messes with ratios, since other studios don’t back away from big openings knowing that lucrative period is just around the corner 

 

Jumanji & Showman don’t open a week after TLJ if it’s a May or July release, but wait a couple of weeks for it to die down, same for PiB & Avatwo 

Hypothetical May:

 

TLJ (1st Weekend) = $260M OW / $320M OWeek / $580M DOM (1.8x)

Showman (3rd Wknd) = $25M OW / $34M OWeek / $140M DOM (4.1x)

Jumanji WTJ (Memorial) = $90M OW / $140M Oweek / $360M DOM (2.6x)

 

This is why you can't comp December to any other month, and even December multis get weird depending on release date/calendar/competition

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Hypothetical May:

 

TLJ (1st Weekend) = $260M OW / $320M OWeek / $580M DOM (1.8x)

Showman (3rd Wknd) = $25M OW / $34M OWeek / $140M DOM (4.1x)

Jumanji WTJ (Memorial) = $90M OW / $140M Oweek / $360M DOM (2.6x)

 

This is why you can't comp December to any other month, and even December multis get weird depending on release date/calendar/competition

I presume TFA was also a May release in this scenario (Prolly clears 300M in that case). If TFA were a Dec film and TLJ opened in May and ended up with your totals, it could've triggered some heated arguments regarding summer vs winter legs (among other TLJ discussions). 

[M37]

40 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I love how this is the instant assumption rather than thinking that it could have made more money

Then why didnt it on Friday? 

 

It’s the ratio between the days, in relation to the other titles, that suggests NFL had no downward effect (and may have even helped!). It’s already at the top end of the daily changes we see this time of year, and so an outlier 

Edited January 16, 2023 by M37

[hw64]

29 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

week 7, after oscar noms and the 2 billion, should probably help

 

Very difficult for Avatar to make gains on Maverick on any given week going forward with those summer weekdays and with the quality of Maverick's holds.

 

Avatar would need to significantly outperform Maverick on the weekends to make up for the weekday deficit, which is likely to be $4m+ per week through at least mid-February. Even on this holiday-boosted weekend it's only $32.4m compared to Maverick's $29.6m, which isn't a huge difference (with a normal weekend they'd basically be equal), and it'll only get more difficult to keep up with Maverick's weekend holds from here.

Edited January 16, 2023 by hw64

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Very difficult for Avatar to make gains on Maverick on any given week going forward with those summer weekdays.

 

Avatar would need to significantly outperform Maverick on the weekends to make up for the weekday deficit, which is likely to be $4m+ per week through at least mid-February. Even on this holiday-boosted weekend it's only $32.4m compared to Maverick's $29.6m, which isn't a huge difference, and it'll only get more difficult to keep up with Maverick's weekend holds from here.

In fairness it doesn't need to match, just to not lose by too much. It has a 50M lead to burn after all. But even that is real TOUGH. Feels more like 680ish atm. If it doesn't drop too rough on quantumania OW then we shall talk I guess.

Edited January 16, 2023 by JustLurking

[Tokugennumataka]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

If Avatwo was having an equivalent run to Titanic, it would have made ~$140M for this 3-day weekend, just DOM  😂

Also would have made ~132M for PD weekend (3 Day), which would mean that Avatar's 10th weekend likely outgrossed AMaTWQ's opening weekend 

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

I presume TFA was also a May release in this scenario (Prolly clears 300M in that case). If TFA were a Dec film and TLJ opened in May and ended up with your totals, it could've triggered some heated arguments regarding summer vs winter legs (among other TLJ discussions). 

Comping the OW/Oweek to IW and Engame gets you to about ~$295 OW for TFA, and presumably the absence of holiday pushes some more business into that first week, so $300M+
 

But then you lose the holiday boon and face stronger competition in May/Jun/Jul than Dec/Jan/Feb, so a lower total and higher OW/Oweek and a much lower multiplier

[Alex SciChannel]

 

Puss in Boots: TLW updated

 

Jan 13, 2023	5	$3,060,000	+184%	-9%	3,687	$830	$96,029,975	24
Jan 14, 2023	3	$6,040,000	+97%	+1%	3,687	$1,638	$102,069,975	25
Jan 15, 2023	3	$5,290,000	-12%	+26%	3,687	$1,435	$107,359,975	26
Jan 16, 2023	2	$4,650,000	-12%	+312%	3,687	$1,261	$112,009,975	27

 

 

Jan 13, 2023

3

$14,390,000

+6%

3,687

$3,903

$107,359,975

4

 

 

Theatrical Performance
Domestic Box Office	$112,009,975	Details
International Box Office	$141,059,000	Details
Worldwide Box Office	$253,068,975
Further financial details...

[shachi86]

I think nowadays the major disadvantage of a Summer release is that the movie is more likely to lose its PLFs quicker. Take Avengers 3, for example which lost PLFs to both Deadpool 2 in its 4th weekend and Solo in its 5th weekend.

[shachi86]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Comping the OW/Oweek to IW and Engame gets you to about ~$295 OW for TFA, and presumably the absence of holiday pushes some more business into that first week, so $300M+
 

But then you lose the holiday boon and face stronger competition in May/Jun/Jul than Dec/Jan/Feb, so a lower total and higher OW/Oweek and a much lower multiplier

 

TFA would have opened on a Memorial Day Weekend, though, so probably could have cleared $400m in its first 4 days.

[setna]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

no movie can have a run similar to titanic unless its 20+ x multiplier makes it the highest grosser domestically by a couple hundred million, greatest showman final number ended up not even beating the opening weekend of multiple films and PIB2 will end up the same

 

Titanic made 30 M adjusted in its 15th weekend!!!!!!!!

[shruth]

50 minutes ago, ando said:

So about all that football that was supposed to affect the daily jumps/holds. Really doesn't seem like that happened at all. 

people who mention football dont know anything about box office. Football playoffs happen every year so what's so special about it? Every december movie faced the same playoffs and historical comparision is how we predict so mentioning football is IRRELEVENT as it is a COMMON DENOMINATOR. 

[kayumanggi]

Deadline:

 

Walk-up ticket sales over MLK weekend just keep going up and up and up. Disney is reporting that 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water had a better Sunday than anticipated, $11.6M vs. what they thought would be $10.3M, which will get the fifth weekend of the James Cameron movie to $40M over 4-days. Wow. That’s bigger than the $24.6M that Spider-Man: No Way Home did a year ago over MLK. Pic’s running total is now $572.4M. 

[kayumanggi]

More:

 

After a near $6M Sunday, Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN goes to $18.2M over 3-days (-40%, which for a horror movie is fantastic), $21.7M over 4 and a running total of $60.2M. Uni’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is also higher with a $5.3M Sunday, $14.4M 3-day (+6%), and 4-day of $19M with a running total of $112M. The movie is running 8% behind the original Puss in Boots’ total cume in its fourth weekend, that movie ending its US/Canada run at $149.2M.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-plane-gerard-butler-the-avatar-way-of-water-m3gan-1235221135/

[stripe]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

no movie can have a run similar to titanic unless its 20+ x multiplier makes it the highest grosser domestically by a couple hundred million, greatest showman final number ended up not even beating the opening weekend of multiple films and PIB2 will end up the same

 

Imagine a film opening today to 50M and then in its 9th weekend it's still grossing the same 50M to reach in that moment a cumulative gross of 650M. Then, it continues to defy gravity until it ends its run with 1.05 billion DOM.

 

Thats what happened in 1997-98 with Titanic

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

Updated charts,

 

1	(1)	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$32,400,000	-29%	4,045	-295	$8,010	$564,201,348	5
2	(2)	M3GAN	Universal	$18,260,000	-40%	3,605	+96	$5,065	$56,793,510	2
3	(3)	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal	$14,390,000	+6%	3,687	-232	$3,903	$107,359,975	4
4	(4)	A Man Called Otto	Sony Pictures	$12,800,000	+205%	3,802	+3,165	$3,367	$19,023,126	3
5	N	Plane	Lionsgate	$10,004,000		3,023		$3,309	$10,004,000	1
6	N	House Party	Warner Bros.	$4,000,000		1,400		$2,857	$4,000,000	1
7	(5)	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Walt Disney	$2,360,000	-33%	1,910	-345	$1,236	$449,272,372	10
8	(7)	The Whale	A24	$1,450,125	-4%	1,500	+665	$967	$10,743,065	6
9	(6)	Whitney Houston I Wanna Dance With Somebody	Sony Pictures	$1,200,000	-50%	2,205	-979	$544	$21,928,718	4
10	N	Waltair Veerayya	Friday Enter…	$1,080,000		350		$3,086	$1,080,000	1
11	N	Skinamarink	IFC Midnight	$815,000		692		$1,178	$815,000