MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Alexdube]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

I think Top Gun will keep its domestic crown, although will be upwards of a billion behind A2 worldwide.

 

I just want 700mil, and i still think it can eek its way there.

 

It should be at 600mil after next weekend, and next weekend i would think would be in the 21-22mil range. So it would need another 100mil off a 21-22mil weekend.

Thats def tough, but its going to go over 5x its OW, so maybe it can do 5x off next weekends 21-22mil.

as long as it beats Jurassic World I am good

that movie doesn't deserve to be up there, it's just a worst version of the original (apologies to the one JW stan)

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Would be equally funny at this point if no one here starts to doompost in the coming days no matter the numbers.

 

nothing's over while i'm breathing

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Tuesday should be $3-$3.3M. The rollercoaster is basically over, just some minor hills, speed ups/slow downs from here 

 

If TUE is about -30% week-to-week 6th WE drop should be about the same if not better, so at least 22.7m.

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Elessar

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR: TWOW's international cume before this weekend was $1,223,600,000. Then after the weekend, it's at $1,330,900,000. That's a difference of $107.3M. The initial overseas weekend number was $88.6M. Where did the $18.7M come from?

[GOGODanca]

Nwh only dropped 30.3% on the weekend following MLK so why would a2 which has been having better weekend holds since the beginning now suddenly fall way off that? Nothing of significance releases next week either

[xg32tr2000]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

AVATAR: TWOW's international cume before this weekend was $1,223,600,000. Then after the weekend, it's at $1,330,900,000. That's a difference of $107.3M. The initial overseas weekend number was $88.6M. Where did the $18.7M come from?

$1,223,600,000 was only until Tuesday

[hw64]

8 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

AVATAR: TWOW's international cume before this weekend was $1,223,600,000. Then after the weekend, it's at $1,330,900,000. That's a difference of $107.3M. The initial overseas weekend number was $88.6M. Where did the $18.7M come from?

 

$1,223.6b was its overseas gross through Tuesday. The $18.7m comes from Wednesday and Thursday grosses in overseas markets where Wednesday and Thursday aren't counted as part of the weekend.

[interiorgatordecorator]

14 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

$1,223.6b was its overseas gross through Tuesday. The $18.7m comes from Wednesday and Thursday grosses in overseas markets where Wednesday and Thursday aren't counted as part of the weekend.

 

it made 13.9 million os on tuesday, and 13.6 on monday, isnt 18.7 kind of a low number for the sum of those days? is it still an estimate?

Edited January 16, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[kayumanggi]

10 minutes ago, xg32tr2000 said:

$1,223,600,000 was only until Tuesday

 

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

$1,223.6b was its overseas gross through Tuesday. The $18.7m comes from Wednesday and Thursday grosses in overseas markets where Wednesday and Thursday aren't counted as part of the weekend.

 

So that's how late BOM updates the numbers. 😅 It was already Fri evening when I saw the figure and apparently Wed and Thu numbers weren't included. Thanks for clarifying.

[M37]

27 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

If TUE is about -30% week-to-week 6th WE drop should be about the same if not better, so at least 22.7m.

 

No, because it will be falling from a holiday Sunday that won’t repeat, so ~5% worse than Tue for the w/e, unless Wed & Thur show something different (smaller drops). This Tue also possibly a tad inflated from holiday spillover with a few more people off than usual

[M37]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

doubting james cameron

I’m not doubting anything, just that we’re now in the predictable part of the run where it’s just gonna do what it will do, the daily numbers telling the story 

[hw64]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

it made 13.9 million os on tuesday, and 13.6 on monday, isnt 18.7 kind of a low number for the sum of those days?

 

Wednesday and Thursday figures are rolled into the weekend in certain overseas markets where the box office "weekend" is defined as Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun.

 

The international weekend gross of $88.6m isn't a Fri-Sun gross, it's a sum of the "weekend" grosses in each overseas market, so that's Fri-Sun in some markets, but Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun in some others.

[Mr Roark]

The cool thing about all this is how Cameron makes the extraordinary feel like the ordinary.

At the same time it is sad tho.

Taking for granted everything’s great he’s still achieving. Again. 

[stuart360]

39 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

as long as it beats Jurassic World I am good

that movie doesn't deserve to be up there, it's just a worst version of the original (apologies to the one JW stan)

I think JW is gone, in fact i'm certain of it as A2 would only need around 53mil off a 21-22mil weekend.

Its bound to do that.

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Wednesday and Thursday figures are rolled into the weekend in certain overseas markets where the box office "weekend" is defined as Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun.

 

The international weekend gross of $88.6m isn't a Fri-Sun gross, it's a sum of the "weekend" grosses in each overseas market, so that's Fri-Sun in some markets, but Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun in some others.

 

got it

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

That $8.2m Monday projection seems almost too good to be true. I know Disney often lowballs their projections but that would be 80% higher than NWH managed last year on the same holiday Monday. Even on Saturday, which most consider to be A2s strongest day of the week it only beat it by 59% (13.8m vs 8.7m). Generally on other days recently it's only been outpacing NWH by 30-40% so what could be the reason for such a big uptick? Maybe Disney overestimated for a change? Do we have any early Monday numbers here?

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

The cool thing about all this is how Cameron makes the extraordinary feel like the ordinary.

At the same time it is sad tho.

Taking for granted everything’s great he’s still achieving. Again. 

First director to of directed 3 movies that have grossed over 2bil. Not only that but 3 2bil movies directed IN A ROW.

I mean when will that be matched again?, maybe if the next 3 Avengers movies have the same director.

Although there is a chance that Cameron COULD have 6 2bil movies in a row.

 

I mean that would probably never be beaten, not until we get to a point in the future where 2bil is like 500mil today.

Edited January 16, 2023 by stuart360

[Chaz]

18 hours ago, Eric is Missing said:

Because VFX workers are being streched to their absolute limits by the evils of capitalism. While CGI-heavy films were common in the mid-2000s, they didn't clog up the market as much as they are now. Now every movie is a CGI-heavy tentpole. There's whole-ass TV shows from Disney+ and Netflix that have as much, arguably more VFX gobbledygook than the movies coming out. So you have an entire industry stretched towards its limits. There's too few workers available to do it all, the hours are grueling and take forever, and the deadlines are the tightest they have ever been.

 

So you have understaffed companies full of people who are overworked and underpaid, and are under the wrath of studio executives who don't give a shit about film as an art form and will force crappy-looking movies out to fill out a spreadsheet and probably get some memes out of it for free publicity. Helps also these movies are done by directors who go from an indie straight to a 100-200M+ production that have no clue how to work with that kind of big budget. So how would they know to make good VFX?

 

So basically, capitalism is evil, hates the working class, is anti-art, and will kill us faster than the virus will. I hope I already cleared everything up for you, but here's a Vulture article that goes into even greater detail.

 

https://www.vulture.com/2023/01/inside-the-vfx-union-brewing-in-hollywood.html?utm_medium=s1&utm_source=tw&utm_campaign=vulture

Lmaoooooo this guh on a BOX OFFICE forum madt at capitalism make it make sense

[teard1972]

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

First director to of directed 3 movies that have grossed over 2bil. Not only that but 3 2bil movies directed IN A ROW.

I mean when will that be matched again?, maybe if the next 3 Avengers movies have the same director.

Although there is a chance that Cameron COULD have 6 2bil movies in a row.

 

I mean that would probably never be beaten, not until we get to a point in the future where 2bil is like 500mil today.

 

I don't think the new Avengers movies going to match the original. most importantly though, Marvel movies are basically studio products rather than "A James Cameron Film" thing. Titanic and Avatars exist only because of Cameron.  

[Mr Roark]

Without China no future MCU film will ever top Titanic.