MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Godzilla]

I think Avatar 2 will easily outgrows Jurassic World dom. $700M is not over. 

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

29% drop from a non-holiday weekend to a holiday weekend.

 

25% drop from a holiday weekend to a non-holiday weekend?

Actually not that impossible, NWH achieved smaller drop following MLK weekend than MLK weekend itself. The same goes to Sing2, Jumanji: NL, Aquaman and so on. 

[upriser7]

14 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

29% drop from a non-holiday weekend to a holiday weekend.

 

25% drop from a holiday weekend to a non-holiday weekend?

It's not unusual..Drops tend to stabilize more in later weekends of the run...NWH last year had 38.5% drop in its 5th weekend (same MLK weekend) but only 30% drop in its 6th weekend. Considering A2 is a weekend heavy movie, 25% drop is possible. . Also it's not like the holiday boost is huge..if there was no MLK day, then Sunday would have been 9.7 instead of 11.7, overall weekend would have been 30.5 (33% drop)

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

That would also mean Showman is on Titanic level! 🤔

Hey, you said it 👀

[todos]

$25M Weekend 

$610M Cume Sunday 

[hw64]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually not that impossible, NWH achieved smaller drop following MLK weekend than MLK weekend itself. The same goes to Sing2, Jumanji: NL, Aquaman and so on. 

 

6 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

It's not unusual..Drops tend to stabilize more in later weekends of the run...NWH last year had 38.5% drop in its 5th weekend (same MLK weekend) but only 30% drop in its 6th weekend. Considering A2 is a weekend heavy movie, 25% drop is possible. . Also it's not like the holiday boost is huge..if there was no MLK day, then Sunday would have been 9.7 instead of 11.7, overall weekend would have been 30.5 (33% drop)

 

All of the mentioned movies had significant new releases on their MLK weekends and then no new significant releases the week after. No Way Home and Sing 2 had Scream ($34m), Aquaman had Glass ($46m), Jumanji had Bad Boys ($73m) and Dolittle ($28m). Avatar 2 doesn't have anything on that level this MLK weekend.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

 

All of the mentioned movies had significant new releases on their MLK weekends and then no new significant releases the week after. No Way Home and Sing 2 had Scream ($34m), Aquaman had Glass ($46m), Jumanji had Bad Boys ($73m) and Dolittle ($28m). Avatar 2 doesn't have anything on that level this MLK weekend.

Agreed. The key number of the weekend is Saturday, in that was -33% from the previous week. That should be roughly the base rate of decline, and at best Avatwo should drop that much for next weekend, likely a little more because of the holiday-inflated Sunday, so like -38%/$20.5M 
That’s where I’d start, unless weekday numbers suggest it’s holding rate is improving (or dropping more)

 

NWH is going to be skewed by Canada theaters reopening around that time 

[Flip]

PIB 82% more than Sing 2’s 5th weekend, if it does 182% of Sing 2 from now on it should end at $185M. 200m?

[Flip]

Btw 185 would be just under 15x legs, obviously with the asterisk of a Wednesday opening 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Flip said:

PIB 82% more than Sing 2’s 5th weekend, if it does 182% of Sing 2 from now on it should end at $185M. 200m?

Like i mentioned already, the possibility that it’s turning into The Greatest Showman 2.0 at the box office is looking like it’s there at this point. 

[MovieMan89]

38 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

 

All of the mentioned movies had significant new releases on their MLK weekends and then no new significant releases the week after. No Way Home and Sing 2 had Scream ($34m), Aquaman had Glass ($46m), Jumanji had Bad Boys ($73m) and Dolittle ($28m). Avatar 2 doesn't have anything on that level this MLK weekend.

Calling Scream “significant” competition to NWH when it grossed sub 35 on OW and was an older gen skewed horror movie is a pretty massive reach. It was a very minor competitor to NWH at absolute most. 

[DAJK]

You know, with M3GAN, Plane, and (presumably) Missing getting good-to-great reviews, 2023 really bucked the trend of "crappy January movies getting dumped". Which is a really nice way to start the year. 

[MovieMan89]

Anyways, with that weekend actual, I think A2 is still very much on pace for 700. That said, I would have preferred to see 34-35 to still feel confident about over TGM, which I think is going to turn into a real nail biter in the end. Though I still give the high odds to A2 bc they are almost guaranteed to go for a big re-release/expansion push later this year if it comes within 10m or so of TGM organically. 

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Calling Scream “significant” competition to NWH when it grossed sub 35 on OW...

 

 

Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a weird way to talk about a movie that came in first place that weekend with $30m?  

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

 

Maybe it's just me, but that seems like a weird way to talk about a movie that came in first place that weekend with $30m?  

Not much different than M3gan last weekend. Are we claiming that was a real direct competitor to A2? Highly beg to differ. 

[MovieMan89]

Sing 2 in it’s whatever weekend prob took more of NWHs potential audience that weekend, since that would have actually had a demo overlap. 

[todos]

It’s fun to watch charts, base rates, comps and the past be wrong every weekend lol

 

It’s also hilarious how this resets at the start of each week and still remain wrong  😆 

 

[hw64]

29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Calling Scream “significant” competition to NWH when it grossed sub 35 on OW and was an older gen skewed horror movie is a pretty massive reach. It was a very minor competitor to NWH at absolute most. 

 

Scream:

Quote

"Updated exits show guys leading at 53%, 67% between 18-34, and 58% over 25. On Friday morning, exits showed 80% under 34 years old, indicating that the movie is appealing toward a younger generation. Diversity draw was 46% Caucasian, 33% Latino and Hispanic, 11% Black and 5% Asian."

 

No Way Home:

Quote

"The 18-34 demo is largely responsible for the success of this blockbuster, showing up at 70% with men under 25 at 38%, men over 25 at 25%, women under 25 at 22% and women over 25 at 15%. Updated diversity demos are 32% Caucasian, 30% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black and 14% Asian."

"PLF and Imax are driving 31% of this weekend’s ticket sales, with 62% between 18-34 (updated)."

 

Looks decently similar to me, especially in the 18-34 audience pull and the Latino/Hispanic draw. No Way Home drew far more kids, obviously, but there's a good amount of overlap here.

 

In any case, regardless of the extent to which you think Scream was effective competition for No Way Home, I think it's pretty evident that it was, in any case, significantly more competition than Avatar 2 faced this weekend.

Edited January 16, 2023 by hw64

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Scream:

 

No Way Home:

 

Looks decently similar to me, especially in the 18-34 audience pull and the Latino/Hispanic draw. No Way Home drew far more kids, obviously, but there's a good amount of overlap here.

 

In any case, regardless of the extent to which you think Scream was effective competition for No Way Home, I think it's pretty evident that it was, in any case, significantly more competition than Avatar 2 faced this weekend.

So are we arguing M3gan is significant competition to A2 then? Bc you have to by that logic. Horror should not be a huge overlap, even if age/ethnic demos are similar. 

[Flip]

Infinity war is definitely going down, black panther will be intriguing to see if it can significantly gain; right now it’s $35m behind taking into account monday