February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

[filmlover]

43 minutes ago, M37 said:

Really our first dull/disappointing weekend of the new year (quite possibly hindered by weather)

 

AMWQ will carry February, but its fairly bleak beyond that top title until the release schedule gets charged in March, with four potential $40M openings in a row (all sequels: Creed, Scream, Shazam, Wick)

Have to disagree with you here and say it's another decent weekend despite there being no breakouts, all things considered. M. Night is clearly a draw on some level at this point given that Knock had the most difficult-to-sell concept of any of his movies in a while. And between the uncertainty aimed at how much older audiences have been returning to the multiplex for the past two years and whether that demo was interested in seeing what looked like a 90 minute commercial for Tom Brady, 80 for Brady beat expectations (and who knows, probably would've been #1 with normal ticket pricing).

 

Next weekend is looking to be a relatively slow one though, between the Super Bowl on Sunday and lack of product (no clue how the Titanic re-release will do while Magic Mike's Last Dance is starting to appear as if it'll be lucky to make half of even XXL's total at this point), but so far it's been nothing but good news for the box office in 2023 so far IMO.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Deadline breakdown of ATP and admissions of the Top 2:

 

 

SUNDAY AM: Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan movie Knock at the Cabin held up over Paramount’s 80 for Brady, $14.2M to $12.5M, even though the latter had discount matinee ticketing in most theaters coast-to-coast.

While the experimental ticket price drop didn’t exactly mushroom more bucks than Knock at the Cabin, 80 for Brady pulled in more people than Knock at the Cabin, 1.3 million to 1.1 million according to box office stat corp EntTelligence, which actually counts seats for the industry. The average ticket price for 80 for Brady was $9.79 to Knock on the Cabin‘s $12.30. So, in regards to Paramount and exhibition’s great team-up, something definitely worked here that bears repeating with subsequent films for older demos.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Have to disagree with you here and say it's another decent weekend despite there being no breakouts, all things considered. M. Night is clearly a draw on some level at this point given that Knock had the most difficult-to-sell concept of any of his movies in a while. And between the uncertainty aimed at how much older audiences have been returning to the multiplex for the past two years and whether that demo was interested in seeing what looked like a 90 minute commercial for Tom Brady, 80 for Brady beat expectations (and who knows, probably would've been #1 with normal ticket pricing).

Whether something is "disappointing" will always be subjective, based on expectations, but why I said that:

• Knock under Old, by a decent amount ($24M 1st week during pandemic vs like $18), despite recent horror successes
• Brady is a good result for what it was, but again below even Otto (and with higher ticket pricing may have made about the same, just off fewer admits, or it didn't matter much because like 80% of audience was paying senior rate or had subs anyway)
• Both Avatwo and Puss didn't hold as well as they have been despite no real competition nor NFL playoffs
• Chosen and Pathaan both proved to be frontloaded for OW and 2nd weekend hold respectively
• Oscar noms had a 1 week bump, then got gashed in theaters and dropped pretty hard

The market at its lower points is in a much healthier place than a year or even 6 months ago, but relative to that new standard, this weekend was largely underwhelming. No need to doom and gloom it too much, but I do think its fair to say the weakness of release slate is finally catching up and the holdovers are losing steam, and other than AMWQ February may be more of the same

[Cmasterclay]

March Predicts

 

Creed 3 - $56 million

Scream 6 - $37 million

Shazam - $44 million

65 - $14 million

John Wick - $69 million (nice)

Dungeons and Dragons - $18 million

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER's overseas weekends

 

$300.5M / weekend 1

$176.6M / weekend 2

$185.5M / weekend 3

$136.7M / weekend 4

$093.2M / weekend 5

$058.6M / weekend 6

$042.4M / weekend 7

$027.9M / weekend 8

[kayumanggi]

Also, the target now for PUSS IN BOOTS: TLW is $500M worldwide.

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

March Predicts

 

Creed 3 - $56 million

Scream 6 - $37 million

Shazam - $44 million

65 - $14 million

John Wick - $69 million (nice)

Dungeons and Dragons - $18 million

Gonna go:

 

Creed - 40M (tracking is way lower than I expected but I imagine it picks back up)

Scream - 30M

Shazam - 35M

65 - 10M

John Wick - 80M

Dungeons - 20M (SXSW reception will make or break it)

Edited February 5, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Also, the target now for PUSS IN BOOTS: TLW is $500M worldwide.

Only a 10% dropoff from the last movie after 11 years of brand dormancy is nothing short of impressive. If Shrek 5 gets made and is anywhere near as good as this movie, then the sky's the limit.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER's overseas weekends

 

$300.5M / weekend 1

$176.6M / weekend 2

$185.5M / weekend 3

$136.7M / weekend 4

$093.2M / weekend 5

$058.6M / weekend 6

$042.4M / weekend 7

$027.9M / weekend 8

 

For comparison's sake AVATAR made $76m in weekend 8. Total: $1.58b

[poweranimals]

Wow. People really don't have any faith in Shazam, huh? I don't understand why it would come in that low when the first one even made more than that and it was one of the few DCEU movies people enjoyed.

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, M37 said:

Whether something is "disappointing" will always be subjective, based on expectations, but why I said that:

• Knock under Old, by a decent amount ($24M 1st week during pandemic vs like $18), despite recent horror successes

I think it's been discussed enough that Knock's numbers are pretty good for what it was. It's a testament to M. Night's name that a movie with this plotline (home invaders hold a gay couple and their young child captive to make the choice of which family member to off or else the world will end) didn't pull low numbers similar to, say, 2009's The Box (another major studio release with a similarly sadistic premise).

[WrathOfHan]

tbh I'm wary on Creed after MGM whiffed all their Q4 releases; the 27-35M tracking makes sense. The Amazon acquisition is clearly impacting things over there. Till/Bones and All/Women Talking don't have the most appealing subject matter nor are the same scale film as Creed, but they just stopped caring about them after the fall festivals; WT still hasn't crossed 1,000 theaters despite a Best Picture nomination and decent PTAs. MGM really needs to go into overdrive the next few weeks (or hope Jonathan Majors mentions it enough on the Ant-Man trail).

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gonna go:

 

Creed - 40M (tracking is way lower than I expected but I imagine it picks back up)

Scream - 30M

Shazam - 35M

65 - 10M

John Wick - 80M

Dungeons - 20M (SXSW reception will make or break it)

Quorum numbers were fantastic for Creed a month ago, what happened?

 

Scream I would normally have dropping but I think Ortega is a legit boost.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Quorum numbers were fantastic for Creed a month ago, what happened?

 

Scream I would normally have dropping but I think Ortega is a legit boost.

BOP initial tracking is 27-35M. MGM doesn't know how to sustain a campaign past the early stages these days (see above)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Wow. People really don't have any faith in Shazam, huh? I don't understand why it would come in that low when the first one even made more than that and it was one of the few DCEU movies people enjoyed.

General audiences can smell a lame duck from miles away in today's social media-powered world where word of mouth spreads fast. Dark Phoenix was released against the backdrop of the Disney-Fox merger and the resulting inevitable MCU reboot, and as a result no one went to see it. People are simply far more aware of corporate politics nowadays. Gunn mostly dismissing it in the recent DCU reveal while praising The Flash and Blue Beetle specifically says it all.

 

The second trailer also makes the movie look like a boring CGI slog that has little to none of the joy of the first film. A movie which was swallowed whole by the Endgame hype and was saved by its modest budget.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

General audiences can smell a lame duck from miles away in today's social media-powered world where word of mouth spreads fast. Dark Phoenix was released against the backdrop of the Disney-Fox merger and the resulting inevitable MCU reboot, and as a result no one went to see it. People are simply far more aware of corporate politics nowadays. Gunn mostly dismissing it in the recent DCU reveal while praising The Flash and Blue Beetle specifically says it all.

 

The second trailer also makes the movie look like a boring CGI slog that has little to none of the joy of the first film. A movie which was swallowed whole by the Endgame hype and was saved by its modest budget.

And Zachary Levi is doing the film absolutely no favors with his recent endeavors the past few weeks.....

[filmlover]

65 reminds me of 2017's Life (another sci-fi release from Sony released in the midst of a packed March). I'm guessing numbers will be fairly similar.

Edited February 5, 2023 by filmlover

[DAJK]

Not entirely sure 500 is feasible for Puss. It's got about 35M DOM left in the tank (add that to the current WW total, that gets you to just over 400). Not sure it has 100M left overseas. But I do think 450WW is a given, which is still a huge success.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

I don't think the hype for CREED III is anywhere near as big as the hype for II. I don't see it having a bigger OW.

[kayumanggi]

14 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Only a 10% dropoff from the last movie after 11 years of brand dormancy is nothing short of impressive. If Shrek 5 gets made and is anywhere near as good as this movie, then the sky's the limit.

 

I'm almost sure SHREK V is happening.