Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[WorkingonaName]

 

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

It simply shows that Caucasians had less interest in this compared to some other MCU while Latinos had more compared to some other MCU. That's what Audience Share is about. Some movies skew one demo (example 58% One Demo) others are more even. That said, $ total is important. 18% audience share of 200M OW means more people in that demo saw a movie than 33% of a 30M OW. 

White people just didn't show up for ant-man.

[stuart360]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

Whoa. So it'll make more than $5M this weekend, right?

Over $6mil

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

 

White people just didn't show up for ant-man.

Not especially. Look at deadline demos for the majority of recent blockbusters and you'll see the same trend.

[Mr Roark]

Pretty confident A2 will best IW…

[grey ghost]

I'm regretting not making a Super Mario OW over Ant-Man 3 OW.

[stuart360]

20 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

This is a significantly better Friday-to-Friday drop than I expected before this week, coming up against Ant-Man. With the strength of this weekend, I'm only now feeling confident in saying that Way of Water can hit the 5+ multiplier mark. As of now:

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.86)^
4. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
5. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
7. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
8. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
9. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Frozen II (2019) — 130.3 million (3.66)
14. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
15. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
16. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
17. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
18. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
19. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
20. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
21. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)
22. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
23. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51)
24. Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49)
25. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)

 

A note that it's always important to keep in mind the various factors that influence the legs of a film. For example, I think Black Panther's near 3.5 multiplier off of a 200+ million opening weekend in the middle of February (with no summer weekdays or December holidays, and for the type of fan-driven blockbuster film it is) to be exceptional - and I'm not trying to say it is the "25th best" in isolation. Animated/family films tend to have stronger legs, regardless of release date, and so they are overrepresented on this list. Etc.

 

Peace,

Mike

What the hell, i knew 5x legs was going to be good for a film opening that big but i didnt realize it was going to be the third best legs of all time.

[JimmyB]

Checking out that EC guy's Twitter, he seems like a fun hang. He is never wrong, everyone is a moron but him and he lets the hate flow.  Life of the party personality. 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I'm regretting not making a Super Mario OW over Ant-Man 3 OW.

Still got time

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Pretty confident A2 will best IW…

Yeah, i actually think it can snail its way to 690mil over the next couple of months.

[interiorgatordecorator]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I'm regretting not making a Super Mario OW over Ant-Man 3 OW.

 

cant see it

[JustLurking]

A2 dropping this little despite IMAX loss is great. Bodes well for late legs.

Edited February 18, 2023 by JustLurking

[stuart360]

Dont really get why so many poeple on here are super confident in the Mario movie. I think its going to underpeform a lot.

Anyone else think its not going to do as good as some think?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Dont really get why so many poeple on here are super confident in the Mario movie. I think its going to underpeform a lot.

Anyone else think its not going to do as good as some think?

 

Depends on what your target number is for this threshold. I think it's going to do 250-300 DOM. Not sure on the OS numbers but leaning towards 400-500. 

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, XXR of the Galaxy said:

 

Depends on what your target number is for this threshold. I think it's going to do 250-300 DOM. Not sure on the OS numbers but leaning towards 400-500. 

Well i mean over the last few weeks i have seen multiple poeple on here mention 100+mil OW, and 800+mil WW totals.

I'm honestly thinking more like 50mil OW, and 400-500mil WW.

 

I dont know if tickets are already on sale, and some early tracking has been done or something, so i'm talking just my unbiased opinion here.

Edited February 18, 2023 by stuart360

[Cooper Legion]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Dont really get why so many poeple on here are super confident in the Mario movie. I think its going to underpeform a lot.

Anyone else think its not going to do as good as some think?

I guess we’re teaming up on this one    
 

I see a sub 60 opening

[TwoMisfits]

Mario opens Easter weekend, so it will have a softer Sat/Sun, but an amazing Friday and preview Thursday (I'd expect VERY early previews and even possible sneaks for Wednesday, since many get that day off, too)...

 

Mario is gonna deliver everything people want in a Mario movie.  My only concern is its ticket price for families.  Then again, it's a holiday weekend open, and if there's ever a time families will overspend, that's the time - thus, why it is the ideal opening weekend.

 

I have no problem seeing Mario beating Ant Man 3 DOM and WW for a total...not sure yet what OW sets it will get and what preview times, so I don't want to go in for the immediate over Ant 3 open b/c kids' movies have been underset since Covid...

 

Edit to Add: Betting again Illumination has now become like the old "betting against Pixar" bet of the early 21st century...you tend to lose b/c they just find the "it" that makes everyone 3-103 happy...

Edited February 18, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Dont really get why so many poeple on here are super confident in the Mario movie. I think its going to underpeform a lot.

Anyone else think its not going to do as good as some think?

Empty marketplace for family films and big brand behind it. Of course, that doesn't always guarantee a breakout but the market will be ready for something resembling a 4-quad event movie (the next live-action one after this Marvel movie being...well, the next Marvel movie in early May) by that point.

[interiorgatordecorator]

6 minutes ago, XXR of the Galaxy said:

 

Depends on what your target number is for this threshold. I think it's going to do 250-300 DOM. Not sure on the OS numbers but leaning towards 400-500. 

 

I have 600-700 as my range, far and away the highest grossing video game movie, but some will treat that as a disaster it seems 

[Valonqar]

37 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

 

White people just didn't show up for ant-man.

 

smelled a turd and went to see AWOW and PIB again. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, stephanos13 said:

 

Which is more realistic? somewhere in the middle?

Disney.

 

Maybe low-to-middle of the two, at best, unless there is a bigger chasm between real-world audience reception and critics than is immediately apparent.