Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

It's still atleast 25m from profitability

 

I am not sure most movies make a profit by just theatrical. Its all the PVOD, the rights to stream it on other overseas services and all the distribution deals that pile up that turns a lot of these movies profitable. I remember reading the Northman (70-90M budget, 70M WW) which looked like it bombed pretty hard ended up making a profit once all the extras came in once theatrical was finished.

 

https://t.co/ArFvOvFqqO

 

Blanket statments of movies needing 3 times there budget I am not sure apply anymore.

 

I remember The Menu being labelled a flop because it opened small (9M) on a 30m budget. It legged it out to 70+ WW and made a killing on PVOD and would have made a nice profit.  

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ronin46

[Godzilla]

What are your predictions for Guardians 3 and The Marvels worldwide? 

 

I'm saying $700M - $900M for Guardians 3 depending on the quality.

 

The Marvels is a wildcard. That all depends on quality. $400M - $800M? 

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Godzilla said:

What are your predictions for Guardians 3 and The Marvels worldwide? 

 

I'm saying $700M - $900M for Guardians 3 depending on the quality.

 

The Marvels is a wildcard. That all depends on quality. $400M - $800M? 

850m WW for GoTg3

 

725m WW for The Marvels

[Dale Cooper]

MCU clearly isn't dying. They do have to start produce better movies again though, because the low quality is eating a good chunk of the box office and it will only be more potential gone for every film.

 

Anwyay, turned out my suggested $105m from three weeks back turned out  to be quite on point for this. Remember getting some heat for suggesting that and that it absolutely would open smaller than Dominion and Love & Thunder. Will probably end its run at ~$260m.

[Ronin46]

27 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

MCU clearly isn't dying. They do have to start produce better movies again though, because the low quality is eating a good chunk of the box office and it will only be more potential gone for every film.

 

Anwyay, turned out my suggested $105m from three weeks back turned out  to be quite on point for this. Remember getting some heat for suggesting that and that it absolutely would open smaller than Dominion and Love & Thunder. Will probably end its run at ~$260m.

 

So you were expecting a B Cinemascore and Rotten? Because patting yourself on the back over your prediction when that was what was needed for it to be right seems the wrong way I would look at IMO. Average reception would have got it to 120 pretty easily I would have thought. I suppose caveats need to be put for every movie based on reception but for something to be ranked in the bottom few for Marvel and still do this well shows what might have happened with a good movie and makes those "optimistic" predictions not look to bad honestly.

 

I remember Legion arguing with Shawn when he put his first LT tracking number of just under 100. How strong he was that the data would not allow it to go under 100M opening. Despite being so poorly received by critics (maybe a bit better by audience so far) it still made it with a bit to spare. So he was right.

 

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Godzilla said:

What are your predictions for Guardians 3 and The Marvels worldwide? 

 

I'm saying $700M - $900M for Guardians 3 depending on the quality.

 

The Marvels is a wildcard. That all depends on quality. $400M - $800M? 

 

850-900 + 725-775

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Agreed.

 

What sort of moron would say these things

 

Wont make 100,  most frontloaded MCU ever,  will do around AM2 OW. 

 

and then make fun of how clueless others are?

 

 

 

 

L o l. I retracted the AM2 OW thing ages ago, and it IS one of the more frontloaded MCU so far, and likely to end up even more so. I also was making predictions, not reporting on box office facts, so…

 

I do love the usage of the song everyone makes fun of for not understanding what irony is to talk about irony. Very meta. 

[IronJimbo]

Yeah my gut says The Marvels is going to massively underperform and suck. the fact it got pushed back is not a good sign, sounds like reshoots

I think GOTG3 could outdo GOTG2

 

but The Marvels will struggle to get 2/3 of what Captain Marvel made

Edited February 21, 2023 by IronJimbo

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

L o l. I retracted the AM2 OW thing ages ago, and it IS one of the more frontloaded MCU so far, and likely to end up even more so. I also was making predictions, not reporting on box office facts, so…

 

I do love the usage of the song everyone makes fun of for not understanding what irony is to talk about irony. Very meta. 

 

What do you predict its domestic box office total will end up with?

[TwoMisfits]

I think GOTG 3 will be fine BO wise, even if it's not the greatest movie.

 

But as I mentioned a few pages ago, if the Marvels is really going with the Ms Marvel series ending scene and the "body swap" as part of the plot concept for how the Marvels team comes together, I can't see how that would come off well with the writing group they've been employing.  In fact, I could see a kinda disastrous 1st act and WW numbers just like Ant Man 3 ends up putting up (or possibly even less)...

[TheFlatLannister]

13 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Yeah my gut says The Marvels is going to massively underperform and suck. the fact it got pushed back is not a good sign, sounds like reshoots

I think GOTG3 could outdo GOTG2

 

but The Marvels will struggle to get 2/3 of what Captain Marvel made

I mostly agree with this. GOTG3 will do well, but The Marvels smells like trouble. Ms. Marvel was the least watched MCU D+ show, so it will be interesting to see if that carries over.

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

What do you predict its domestic box office total will end up with?

220-235 range. Slightly too high of an OW for me to stick by under 2 being possible. 

[thajdikt]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I mostly agree with this. GOTG3 will do well, but The Marvels smells like trouble. Ms. Marvel was the least watched MCU D+ show, so it will be interesting to see if that carries over.

Well I do se that do point but The Marvels is still a sequel to 1B movie. WandaVision was also one of the most watched D+ MCU shows. So it has more going for it than not in that department. Also Disney buried Ms.Marvel so hard with it´s release date with releasing at the same time so many big shows like Obi-Wan, Stranger Things and The Boys S4 that it really didn´t stand a chance. That said the movie is obviously going for a huge drop. No Endgame boost and all of that. But it ain´t going to go to like 400M like some people are saying. 700M+.

 

In fact here´s a prediction for folks: People are overestimating GoTG vol. 3 and underestimating The Marvels. When it´s all said and done The Marvels will gross more that GotG Vol. 3. Book it.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Well I do se that do point but The Marvels is still a sequel to 1B movie. WandaVision was also one of the most watched D+ MCU shows. So it has more going for it than not in that department. Also Disney buried Ms.Marvel so hard with it´s release date with releasing at the same time so many big shows like Obi-Wan, Stranger Things and The Boys S4 that it really didn´t stand a chance. That said the movie is obviously going for a huge drop. No Endgame boost and all of that. But it ain´t going to go to like 400M like some people are saying. 700M+.

 

In fact here´s a prediction for folks: People are overestimating GoTG vol. 3 and underestimating The Marvels. When it´s all said and done The Marvels will gross more that GotG Vol. 3. Book it.

 

That should be a club...

[Flopped]

I saw on Deadline this will be released on over 3000 screens unlike House Party and Magic Mike, any truth to it? 

 

 

[Verrows]

29 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Well I do se that do point but The Marvels is still a sequel to 1B movie. WandaVision was also one of the most watched D+ MCU shows. So it has more going for it than not in that department. Also Disney buried Ms.Marvel so hard with it´s release date with releasing at the same time so many big shows like Obi-Wan, Stranger Things and The Boys S4 that it really didn´t stand a chance. That said the movie is obviously going for a huge drop. No Endgame boost and all of that. But it ain´t going to go to like 400M like some people are saying. 700M+.

 

In fact here´s a prediction for folks: People are overestimating GoTG vol. 3 and underestimating The Marvels. When it´s all said and done The Marvels will gross more that GotG Vol. 3. Book it.

I respect this kind of prediction. We'll see!

[Willowra]

8 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I respect this kind of prediction. We'll see!

Marvel Studios is likely to go with Captain Marvel as the leader of the Avengers, as Anthony Mackie is now saying he won't lead the Avengers as he doesn't have superpowers. In that case, anything could happen with The Marvels' box office.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

43 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Well I do se that do point but The Marvels is still a sequel to 1B movie. WandaVision was also one of the most watched D+ MCU shows. So it has more going for it than not in that department. Also Disney buried Ms.Marvel so hard with it´s release date with releasing at the same time so many big shows like Obi-Wan, Stranger Things and The Boys S4 that it really didn´t stand a chance. That said the movie is obviously going for a huge drop. No Endgame boost and all of that. But it ain´t going to go to like 400M like some people are saying. 700M+.

 

In fact here´s a prediction for folks: People are overestimating GoTG vol. 3 and underestimating The Marvels. When it´s all said and done The Marvels will gross more that GotG Vol. 3. Book it.

 

 

So was ALICE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS.

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, Willowra said:

Marvel Studios is likely to go with Captain Marvel as the leader of the Avengers, as Anthony Mackie is now saying he won't lead the Avengers as he doesn't have superpowers. In that case, anything could happen with The Marvels' box office.

 

yeah but that information isnt going to be revealed in guardians of the galaxy, so the GA has no way of knowing that

[TheFlatLannister]

45 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Well I do se that do point but The Marvels is still a sequel to 1B movie. WandaVision was also one of the most watched D+ MCU shows. So it has more going for it than not in that department. Also Disney buried Ms.Marvel so hard with it´s release date with releasing at the same time so many big shows like Obi-Wan, Stranger Things and The Boys S4 that it really didn´t stand a chance. That said the movie is obviously going for a huge drop. No Endgame boost and all of that. But it ain´t going to go to like 400M like some people are saying. 700M+.

 

In fact here´s a prediction for folks: People are overestimating GoTG vol. 3 and underestimating The Marvels. When it´s all said and done The Marvels will gross more that GotG Vol. 3. Book it.

What are your The Marvels and GOTG3 predictions?