MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING | 395.4M overseas | 567.5M worldwide

[JustLurking]

MI7 can increase from MI6 in Japan but I am not really sure how much. Films can coexist well in Japan since it is a legs market but even so I can't imagine releasing the week after "How do you Live?" is favorable for MI. I think going up to 6b would be superb already. Would not be all that surprised if it mostly plays similarly to MI6 to be honest.

 

I think people are overestimating how much TC profile really grew from TGM. Like, it's not like the man was unknown in Japan before TGM, you know? And the skew on TGM was very much weekday-oriented which suggests older demo watched it, these people already know him. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by JustLurking

[MG10]

2 hours ago, Flip said:

We're still pretty far out, but I could see major markets playing out as so:

 

Japan: 45m

China: 125m

South Korea: 50m

UK: 50m

France: 35m

Germany: 25m

Australia: 30m

India: 20m

Taiwan: 20m

Mexico: 15m

 

Cumulative makes 415m vs. Fallout which did 415.5m in the same territories. The problem for this movie is that it's going to have a gap to make up due to China likely decreasing from Fallout's gross.

 

I think Usa/Canada alone will fill the gap of the Chinese performance (maybe reaching 300M?), while all the other markets need to grow to make the film reach 900M

[Flip]

Just was calculating some mojo numbers, and I added it up to a 128m OW for Fallout - China. A good goal for Dead Reckoning I think would be 150m in OS - China? 

[MG10]

Ok it's time for my forecast:

 

Fallout made 220M in Usa/Canada, 180M in China and 390M in the rest of the world

 

For Dead Reckoning I expect 250/300M in North America, 100M in China and 450M in the rest of the world

[Asyulus]

I’d go wager China makes more than $250M. $350M DOM due to reviews + WOM and $500M rest of the world, for a total of $1.1B WW.

[Issac Newton]

Asia is exploding!! Starting in Indonesia with an explosive $1.5M on 475K admits at 4,907 shows 

 

[Maggie]

6 hours ago, Asyulus said:

I’d go wager China makes more than $250M.

No way. It has very weak presales

 

[The Dark Alfred]

As mentioned the drop from China will likely to be equalled domestically. So need Rest of the World improve on FALLOUT the similar fashion. I think it can do similar to FAST X/FALLOUT overall internationally. 600m best case scenario if it catches fire in China (unlikely at this point). 550m OS is reasonable. Either way worldwide should give GOTG 3 a run for its money for the summer crown.

[Flip]

On 6/15/2023 at 12:26 PM, Flip said:

We're still pretty far out, but I could see major markets playing out as so:

 

Japan: 45m

China: 125m

South Korea: 50m

UK: 50m

France: 35m

Germany: 25m

Australia: 30m

India: 20m

Taiwan: 20m

Mexico: 15m

 

Cumulative makes 415m vs. Fallout which did 415.5m in the same territories. The problem for this movie is that it's going to have a gap to make up due to China likely decreasing from Fallout's gross.

Updating this:

 

Japan: 50m

China: 85m

South Korea: 57m

UK: 47m

France: 38m

Germany: 22m

Australia: 25m

India: 19m

Taiwan: 22m

Mexico: 10m

cumulatively thats 375m. So China is the one big decrease with all the other markets together staying flat.

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

🥱

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

As mentioned the drop from China will likely to be equalled domestically. 

What is your dom and china predictions,?

[JustLurking]

6 hours ago, Flip said:

Updating this:

 

Japan: 50m

China: 85m

South Korea: 57m

UK: 47m

France: 38m

Germany: 22m

Australia: 25m

India: 19m

Taiwan: 22m

Mexico: 10m

cumulatively thats 375m. So China is the one big decrease with all the other markets together staying flat.

 

 

 

FYI, that's a 50% increase in yen you're predicting in Japan over MI6...

[Flip]

6 hours ago, JustLurking said:

FYI, that's a 50% increase in yen you're predicting in Japan over MI6...

Yea I’m pretty optimistic about its prospects in Japan, IIRC it’s only real competition is How Do You Live

[John Rambo]

Early numbers from Indonesia as reported by Issac is 2.7M from 2 days OW and Australia seems to be around 4.3-4.5m from 2 days. 

[Issac Newton]

Hong Kong 

 

$1.5M in 2-Days incl Special Shows! OD came higher than "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" even when MI has 100 less shows than Mario! Note that Mario OD is a Holiday!

 

[HesAPooka]

Limited locations it's opened in seem to be performing really well so far.

[Bob Train]

I think we'll need to wait for the actual weekend to have a clear picture of overseas numbers for this film, the release date shenanigans are too weird and confusing.

[Issac Newton]

Taiwan

 

$2.1M Start! Close competition from "Detective Conan: Black Iron Submarine" which debuted with $1.8M.

[Issac Newton]

India PS at two Major Chain (PVR &INOX) has exceeded 100K admits! Officially opens on July 12. i.e. WED.

[HesAPooka]

Top Gun and reviews has helped this in Asia. Will be interesting to see what happens in Europe.