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Weekday Thread (2/21-2/23)

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10 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

SDCC is sure gonna be interesting.

If eternals 2, shangchi 2 ,DS3 rumors pan out ,think KD and secret wars will be pushed.

 

Think we could get some news on world war hulk, Scarlett witch project ? Young avengers?

 

 

If they keep pushing Avengers movies, they'll keep losing OS audiences. One thing they need most right now is an Avengers movie.

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2 hours ago, Willowra said:

Rumours now say that Eternals 2 is happening; if that's the case, then Ant-Man 4 will also happen whether someone likes it or not lol

Even if that does happen (and the source is sketchy), I fail to see the correlation? Not saying it can't happen, but how does Eternals 2 in any way confirm an ant man 4?

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54 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Even if that does happen (and the source is sketchy), I fail to see the correlation? Not saying it can't happen, but how does Eternals 2 in any way confirm an ant man 4?

If Eternals, which grossed 400 million on a 235 million budget, gets a sequel, then Ant-Man 3 would also get a sequel, even if it grosses less than the first Ant-Man movie.

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6 minutes ago, Willowra said:

If Eternals, which grossed 400 million on a 235 million budget, gets a sequel, then Ant-Man 3 would also get a sequel, even if it grosses less than the first Ant-Man movie.

These two events have no correlation whatsoever

 

All you're saying is that it CAN happen, not that it will

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MCU fans should be happy with less than $4m wednesday. If this 2nd weekend turbo bombs then maybe MCU take a step back and reinvent themselves, too many movies in a row without innovating or changing things up. I'm starting to see MCU fans saying they're getting bored

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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

MCU fans should be happy with less than $4m wednesday. If this 2nd weekend turbo bombs then maybe MCU take a step back and reinvent themselves, too many movies in a row without innovating or changing things up. I'm starting to see MCU fans saying they're getting bored

Well the movies they have stated to release, will release.

 

Big problem for me is all the Multiverse nonsense, and it's also affecting the storytelling, the stakes are gone and nothing matters and anything is happening.

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3 hours ago, Willowra said:

If they keep pushing Avengers movies, they'll keep losing OS audiences. One thing they need most right now is an Avengers movie.

It's less about needing an avenger movies . They need to get  a string of well received movies together. 

 

Because avenger movie now would be a mess . Phase 4 was a waste in terms of moving the overall narrative and had like 17 projects add to that middling reception you get oversaturation and fatigue.

 

The premise of the multiverse just convolutes the story and undermines stakes. 

 

Let's how phase 5 pan outs

But my feelings now

 

KD - AOU vibes 

Secret wars - AOU/MOM vibes with NWH type nostalgia .

 

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7 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Why would you bring up Uncharted or the very well received SC? Look at MoM and Thor and how poor the legs were on that. BP2 also did not really have a great multiplier even though it was well received.

 

2.5 times the 3 day is about as good as we can hope these days with how front loaded Marvel (and all superhero comic book) is. Thats for well received movies. The previews start to early and the rush to watch early is very strong. 

 

MoM 2.19

Thor 2.38

BP2 2.5  

 

thats each movies 3 day multiplier. ANTM3 did 106M,  2.3 (upper limit) is 243M. Its more likely to be 2.1-2.2 IMO (220-230M) after a B Cinemascore and Rotten and below 50 on MC.

 

Not even 2x on the 4 day. Thats without really looking at the weekdays which are already brutal. 7M and an early number of 4M for Wed.

At the risk of repeating myself, its much better to use the full Opening WEEK when looking at multipliers, to account for different seasons and how much business is spread out into those first weekdays vs compressed into the OW. With that in mind, MCU multipliers have been fairly consistent, particularly for those less well received

  • Shang-Chi = 2.04x
  • Eternals = 1.81x
  • MoM = 1.78x
  • Thor L&T = 1.83x
  • BPWF = 2.06x

 

BPWF benefited from holidays (both TG week and Xmas), while Shang-Chi had good WOM and no competition in September, so ~1.8x should be the expectation for AMWQ, off a ~$135M first week, putting it on track to finish below $250M, though it could manage to nudge just over it

 

I know there is a natural inclination to look to Uncharted as a comp here given the release date, but different movie with far lower fan rush and better WOM (finished at 2.47x OW), and its no longer viable as a comp after Monday IMO

Edited by M37
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6 hours ago, JimmyB said:

An opening weekend of $100M+ and only making $4M on its first Wednesday has that happened before?

Nope. However go down to $90-$100M level to get below $5M first Wed (which is somewhat unfair because summer & holiday weekdays are inflated)

 

Godzilla = $4.96M ($93.2M OW)

F8te of Furious = $4.89M ($98.8M OW)

IT Chapter 2 = $4.52M ($91.8M OW)

Venom 2 = $4.13M ($90.0M OW)

 

Fwiw, with the exception of Godzilla - which had terrible legs - those other 3 titles grossed another ~$102-$107M after their respective Wednesdays

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31 minutes ago, M37 said:

Nope. However go down to $90-$100M level to get below $5M first Wed (which is somewhat unfair because summer & holiday weekdays are inflated)

 

Godzilla = $4.96M ($93.2M OW)

F8te of Furious = $4.89M ($98.8M OW)

IT Chapter 2 = $4.52M ($91.8M OW)

Venom 2 = $4.13M ($90.0M OW)

 

Fwiw, with the exception of Godzilla - which had terrible legs - those other 3 titles grossed another ~$102-$107M after their respective Wednesdays

 

Which, with Ant-Man at $131.5Mish with this Wed, would put it at $233-238M (or within the range of MoM legs to 2.3X legs, which is what I predicted to Shawn Sunday:)...

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4 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

Is TITANIC still playing this weekend?

 

saw it in my local cinema to be still playing this weekend but number of daily shows has been slashed from around 8 to 1 compared to week before.

Edited by adaros
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