Weekend Thread (02.24 - 02.26) | Actuals: 31.96M QUANTUMANIA | 23.26M COCAINE BEAR | 15.80M JESUS REVOLUTION

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

At this point ChatAI can do better writing, no kidding. And it's free.

not for long, the best AI will help further expand the wealth gap and only be available to the filthy rich

[GOGODanca]

Need this to match BvS sub 2x multiplier overall

[upriser7]

post-holidays period, A2 has had atleast 137% jump on every Friday. Any particular reason why we are expecting much softer jump this Friday ? 

[tawasal]

Reminder. This is what the top 10 worst 2nd weekend drops above 100m opening looks. 

 

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

$169,189,427

-72%

$47,422,212

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

$142,839,137

-70%

$42,870,031

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1

$138,122,261

-69.8%

$41,683,574

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

$166,007,347

-69.1%

$51,335,254

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2

$141,067,634

-69.1%

$43,641,448

Thor: Love and Thunder

$144,165,107

-67.7%

$46,632,172

Spider-Man: No Way Home

$260,138,569

-67.5%

$84,548,505

Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

$220,009,584

-67.5%

$71,565,498

Suicide Squad

$133,682,248

-67.4%

$43,536,013

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

$187,420,998

-67%

$61,755,804

[GOGODanca]

Nwh unfairly on that list due to eve and Christmas day being on the weekend

[grim22]

I'm going to guess the box office in SoCal today and tomorrow is going to be way under indexing. This isn't weather anyone should be going outside during. A lot of rain, cold, and wind. Even picking up kids from daycare felt like an adventure. People here forget driving when there's precipitation.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

48 minutes ago, CrashBandicoot81 said:

I know this is probably most likely not going to happen but It'd be funny if somehow Antman WW goes under Puss in Boot's WW.

The pre-drinks over at the club have only just started, you're welcome to join in 

 

 

[exomassey]

To be fair, since Endgame the only MCU that hasn’t fallen over 60% in its 2nd week is Shang Chi. 
 

It’s a trend that these movies are dropping in quality but maybe the franchise has just become more frontloaded too.

 

[grim22]

38 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Need this to match BvS sub 2x multiplier overall

For that to happen, there will need to be movies taking the IMAX and Dolby screens over the next 2 weeks. BvS got hurt by Jungle Book first and then Civil War and never got enough theaters after that to stabilize. 

[TheFlatLannister]

7 minutes ago, exomassey said:

To be fair, since Endgame the only MCU that hasn’t fallen over 60% in its 2nd week is Shang Chi. 
 

It’s a trend that these movies are dropping in quality but maybe the franchise has just become more frontloaded too.

 

Because of Disney+

 

If you don't see it OW, might as well wait 2-3 months for D+ release 

[M37]

36 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

post-holidays period, A2 has had atleast 137% jump on every Friday. Any particular reason why we are expecting much softer jump this Friday ?  

Probably same as PiB: there is some limited holiday/break periods inflating weekdays. The -4% Thur/Thur isn’t indicative of what should be expected for Fri/Fri

[M37]

On 2/23/2023 at 1:55 PM, M37 said:

I somewhat agree with this, in that my view is that both the Kang-driven fan rush and holiday helped boost the OW, and now we’re seeing it come back down to earth 

 

Just think it’s less of a GA rejection, more of a loss of potential, and it will leg out fine after the apparent crash this upcoming weekend & week, in part because of absence of alternatives. Have heard from too many people (many unprompted) that liked it, but there’s really no rush now 

Just going to copy over what I wrote in weekday thread, in that I still expect AMWQ to leg out OK from this point on, not continue to crater like BvS

[grim22]

Just now, M37 said:

Just going to copy over what I wrote in weekday thread, in that I still expect AMWQ to leg out OK from this point on, not continue to crater like BvS

Is there really a lack of alternatives though? There's Creed this coming weekend if people want a better reviewed Jonathan Majors performance, then there's 65, Scream, Shazam, John Wick and then Mario. At least one 30M level release every weekend.

[upriser7]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Probably same as PiB: there is some limited holiday/break periods inflating weekdays. The -4% Thur/Thur isn’t indicative of what should be expected for Fri/Fri

i didn't know Spring breaks already started in some parts of the country. It's usually in 2nd week of March near where I live

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, exomassey said:

To be fair, since Endgame the only MCU that hasn’t fallen over 60% in its 2nd week is Shang Chi. 
 

It’s a trend that these movies are dropping in quality but maybe the franchise has just become more frontloaded too.

 

Reception and also 3PM previews. I wonder how stark the discontinuity is with drop from true FSS. 
 

In this case there is also a holiday inflated sun… but even looking sat/sat I think this will be the worst in the MCU 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Ryan Reynolds]

9 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

i didn't know Spring breaks already started in some parts of the country. It's usually in 2nd week of March near where I live

its a winter break for schools (not colleges), its common in northeast when i went to public school

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, CrashBandicoot81 said:

I know this is probably most likely not going to happen but It'd be funny if somehow Antman WW goes under Puss in Boot's WW.

 

There's been a club for this all week:)...

[M37]

26 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Is there really a lack of alternatives though? There's Creed this coming weekend if people want a better reviewed Jonathan Majors performance, then there's 65, Scream, Shazam, John Wick and then Mario. At least one 30M level release every weekend.

Those are nearly all brands/franchises and skew fairly adult - expect for Shazam, which isn’t looking great - leaving a void in the family market, and I suspect the more fan-ish 18-35s are the biggest source of rejection and current crash

 

Just think there decent runway for a Paul Rudd led PG-13 action/sci-fi flick to capture enough casual/GA to not totally crumble with weekly 50% drops, especially given how limited the release schedule has been of late, where Avatar & PiB accounted for >40% of 2023 gross before AMWQ opened

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by M37

[GOGODanca]

Yeah with 3PM previews and fan rush of marvel movies ,even well received installments like BPWF are destined for 60%+ drops, you'd need great A+ cinemascore reception to avoid that at this point for the franchise 

[M37]

22 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

i didn't know Spring breaks already started in some parts of the country. It's usually in 2nd week of March near where I live

It’s not Spring Break, it’s Winter Break, timed with President’s Day (why I don’t know, but it exists)